Solarflaretracker200 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Flare is still going...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Planeus Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Hi all, Long time lurker but new member here. Are the rising protons indicative of an earth facing CME or just a CME in general? I've seen the >10 MeV levels rise before but never the >50 or >100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 The region is in the zone where eruptive events cause protons to be accelerated and proton levels rise. Also electron levels are rising on EPAM indicating the eruptive event. If EPAM low level protons also rise there is a CME on the way. We’ll have to wait a bit more for LASCO imagery to be complete for better analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Earth directed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 (edited) Haaaaa, another Friday getting off of work. It is certainly STEREO A directed, so it's comin' for us. .... We'll get a better impact this time, but the question now is how close to the main bulk of the CME are we. ..... I'll have a preliminary arrival time at STEREO A of 2023/02/26 19:00Z +-6 hours at roughly 46.5 hours travel time. L1 should be a few hours earlier, but all eyes on SOHO now to compare. Edited February 24, 2023 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 new frames, but the northwest side of the CME is almost out of SOHO's C3 imagery already. I'm sitting at around 35-45 hours of travel time to L1, not my preliminary forecast yet. Certainly G3 potential at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: 2 new frames, but the northwest side of the CME is almost out of SOHO's C3 imagery already. I'm sitting at around 35-45 hours of travel time to L1, not my preliminary forecast yet. Certainly G3 potential at this point in time. G3 would be amazing! Are you sure it’s partial halo and has an Earth-directed component? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Sam Warfel said: G3 would be amazing! Are you sure it’s partial halo and has an Earth-directed component? Yeah. This time there is a slightly bigger CH in center disk, but more of the shock is getting by it in C3 imagery than the X2.2 flare CME. I believe STEREO A is missing the bulk, but L1 may be right on the edge. I'll go with a preliminary arrival time of 2023/02/26 12:00Z with a chance of error -4/+6 hours. Roughly a 39:30 travel time. If timing is close, the only reason I'm not going with G4 potential is it that the CME isn't aimed further towards us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I sure hope you’re right, I’m on a trip up north and would be well positioned to view an aurora, if the clouds let me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: Certainly G3 potential at this point in time. I hope so 🤞 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris, HB9DFG Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Hope Jesterface23 you are right and you can make better forecasts than the other forecasters on the website with the dozens of game casino advertisements... But its' always a thing with hope, you know, you can hope one time, two times, hundred times - but maybe it needs thousand times before your hope gets fulfilled - in other words we maybe need thousand CMEs around the sun before we get a very direct hit and I guess that we have already felt a few hundred behind us last two years with no hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 9 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: Yeah. This time there is a slightly bigger CH in center disk, but more of the shock is getting by it in C3 imagery than the X2.2 flare CME. I believe STEREO A is missing the bulk, but L1 may be right on the edge. I'll go with a preliminary arrival time of 2023/02/26 12:00Z with a chance of error -4/+6 hours. Roughly a 39:30 travel time. If timing is close, the only reason I'm not going with G4 potential is it that the CME isn't aimed further towards us. The news article from SWL suggests G1 or maybe G2, the full halo part of the CME is pretty slow/faint. If it was symmetrical I’d definitely say G3, but sadly it seems like we are missing the bulk of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 hours ago, Sam Warfel said: The news article from SWL suggests G1 or maybe G2, the full halo part of the CME is pretty slow/faint. If it was symmetrical I’d definitely say G3, but sadly it seems like we are missing the bulk of it What did noaa say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 hours ago, Sam Warfel said: The news article from SWL suggests G1 or maybe G2, the full halo part of the CME is pretty slow/faint. If it was symmetrical I’d definitely say G3, but sadly it seems like we are missing the bulk of it SWL is going with a later arrival time, so G2 being possible would be reasonable. We may end up getting an impact between the bulk of the CME and a glancing blow, that's how close to the edge we may be. SA will get a glancing blow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Another filament releasing from within the region? Looks like many places center disk are reacting to something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Winters Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I created another compilation video of data from the Feb 24th M3.7 flare from this region, for those who enjoyed the one I did for the X2 flare. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) We're literally having a repeat of the last filament eruption, this filament doesn't seem as dense. Edited February 25, 2023 by mozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, mozy said: We're literally having a repeat of the last filament eruption, only this filament doesn't seem as dense. Is this one also eruptive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) Just now, Sam Warfel said: Is this one also eruptive? Yes, looks decent aswell. Edited February 25, 2023 by mozy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) Nice flare going on, right now. Kinda a steep incline Edited February 25, 2023 by Solarflaretracker200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, mozy said: Yes, looks decent aswell. Deja Vu indeed! 1 minute ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: Nice flare going on, right now. Kinda a steep incline That’s caused by the filament eruption we’re talking about above. A slow-peaking flare that just reached R2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Sam Warfel said: That’s caused by the filament eruption we’re talking about above. Funny how the same thing happened yesterday, as you guys were also pointing out. M4 flare now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, mozy said: We're literally having a repeat of the last filament eruption, this filament doesn't seem as dense. Looks a bit more westward, correct me if im wrong ? Also how do you determine density in imagery available rn? I never paid much attention to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf star Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Před 2 minutami Solarflaretracker200 řekl: Nyní světlice M4. And we go on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Wolf star said: And we go on! leveling off now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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