AR 13229, X2.28 flare!

[MinYoongi]

15 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

 

So far the DSCOVR's IMF total strength from the CME has ranged from 22.59nT to 0.34nT in 1 second data.

Sounds like dscovr having a small data error again

[helios]

3 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

is it an early arrive?

Most predictions were pretty good I think

[Jesterface23]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Sounds like dscovr having a small data error again

The magnetometer data is fine, though it is preliminary. The farday cup data (velocities, proton density, temp) would be the data that has the higher chance of having errors

[arjemma]

11 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

The magnetometer data is fine, though it is preliminary. The farday cup data (velocities, proton density, temp) would be the data that has the higher chance of having errors

Also sometimes when the density drops suddenly it can be that the data changes from DSCOVR to ACE. A while ago there was interruption in the data and ACE took over several times per day. ACE shows the density at a much lower value than what DSCOVR does. So a drop in the density can sometimes just mean that the data comes from ACE instead of DSCOVR.

Here is a table of how long DSCOVR and ACE have showed the data. The site is in Finnish but you can translate it in Chrome: https://jemma.mobi/satelliittilogi

[MinYoongi]

16 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Also sometimes when the density drops suddenly it can be that the data changes from DSCOVR to ACE. A while ago there was interruption in the data and ACE took over several times per day. ACE shows the density at a much lower value than what DSCOVR does. So a drop in the density can sometimes just mean that the data comes from ACE instead of DSCOVR.

Here is a table of how long DSCOVR and ACE have showed the data. The site is in Finnish but you can translate it in Chrome: https://jemma.mobi/satelliittilogi

This is 100% right.

ACE always shows lower density and has severe density spikes with up to 160  

[Isatsuki San]

It seems that the second cm the planet was hit by solar wind at 700 km/S

Edited February 27, 2023 by Isatsuki San

[Jesterface23]

Just now, Isatsuki San said:

looks like it hit the second cme right now

Still the first CME, fairly early into the CME. We will see a shock arrival with spikes in the IMF total strength, velocities, proton density, and temperature when the second CME arrives. DSCOVR and ACE are both having some issues currently.

[Isatsuki San]

2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Todavía el primer CME , bastante temprano en el CME . Veremos una llegada de choque con picos en la fuerza total del IMF , velocidades, densidad de protones y temperatura cuando llegue la segunda CME . DSCOVR y ACE están teniendo problemas actualmente.

It seems that the second cm the planet was hit by solar wind at 700 km/S

[mozy]

8 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Still the first CME, fairly early into the CME. We will see a shock arrival with spikes in the IMF total strength, velocities, proton density, and temperature when the second CME arrives. DSCOVR and ACE are both having some issues currently.

When is your ETA of the second one again?

[Jesterface23]

1 minute ago, Isatsuki San said:

It seems that the second cm the planet was hit by solar wind at 700 km/S

There is no shock of the 2nd CME arrival. If the 2nd CME arrived this early we'd be at around 1000km/s.

1 minute ago, mozy said:

When is your ETA of the second one again?

I went with this, but so far the current pattern is I have been a several hours too early.

23 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

For this latest CME I'll have a preliminary arrival time at L1 of 2023/02/27 16:50Z, a travel time of ~45:30 with a chance of error -5/+7 hours.

 

[mozy]

6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

 

I went with this, but so far the current pattern is I have been a several hours too early.

 

Ah y, you expect it to be stronger than the first impact? I'm finally having clear skies tomorrow & just hoping the bz component will cooperate lol like today..

[Jesterface23]

Just now, mozy said:

Ah y, you expect it to be stronger than the first impact? I'm finally having clear skies tomorrow & just hoping the bz component will cooperate lol like today..

At the time I'd thought the first would have a faster travel time than the second, but the 2nd CME had a better flux rope coming at us.

We still need to wait and see if this first CME may bring any kind of good flux rope.

[MinYoongi]

Is the speed authentic or is it being funky again?

[Isatsuki San]

Geomagnetic storm kp 7 and the second cme does not hit it yet, which arrived later

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

Geomagnetic storm kp 7 and the second cme does not hit it yet, which arrived later

I don’t really understand what you’re trying to say 

[Philalethes]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

I don’t really understand what you’re trying to say 

I believe this is what they meant to communicate:

Quote

The geomagnetic storm level is now KP7, and the second CME has not even hit yet, but will arrive later.

[MinYoongi]

Thank you! 

Just now, Philalethes Bythos said:

I believe this is what they meant to communicate:

I wonder if the CME we“re in right now is only a shock encounter or a flank ? I don’t know

Also are the current drops in wind speed authentic or glitchy data ?

[arjemma]

22 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you! 

I wonder if the CME we“re in right now is only a shock encounter or a flank ? I don’t know

Also are the current drops in wind speed authentic or glitchy data ?

We haven't seen a clear drop in temperature which is usually occurring when a flux rope (inner core) of a CME hits. So I believe we are still in the shock of the CME.  It does look like we will be hit by the core of the second CME but I'm not sure about the first one that arrived. I hope some flux rope arrive, that would be very interesting.

[IlikeAuroras]

thanks to this region, and its M6.35 solar flare, we got new zealand back on once again.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, arjemma said:

We haven't seen a clear drop in temperature which is usually occurring when a flux rope (inner core) of a CME hits. So I believe we are still in the shock of the CME.  It does look like we will be hit by the core of the second CME but I'm not sure about the first one that arrived. I hope some flux rope arrive, that would be very interesting.

Yeah I’m more optimistic about some more material with the 2nd CME 

I wonder how long this CME passage will last with no Flux rope attached? Any guesses?

[MinYoongi]

Very southward bz and high speed, I wonder if this is the CME still, the speed was steady and now accelerated a lot 

Could this be the second CME ? @Jesterface23 @arjemma

[arjemma]

28 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Very southward bz and high speed, I wonder if this is the CME still, the speed was steady and now accelerated a lot 

Could this be the second CME ? @Jesterface23 @arjemma

It looks like there is an error in the data and I guess it's the Faraday Cup again on DSCOVR. So I think this is just error. It's hard to tell if a new CME hit but I don't think so.

The red and yellow portion in the screenshot indicates "error" and "problem".

Link: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

So I don't think we have been hit again.

[MinYoongi]

7 minutes ago, arjemma said:

It looks like there is an error in the data and I guess it's the Faraday Cup again on DSCOVR. So I think this is just error. It's hard to tell if a new CME hit but I don't think so.

The red and yellow portion in the screenshot indicates "error" and "problem".

Link: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

So I don't think we have been hit again.

Switch to ace only. I believe this is a second hit because ace shows speeds of 740kms and at the same time dscovr started to have problems 

(Dscovr often gets problems with impacts)

[arjemma]

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Switch to ace only. I believe this is a second hit because ace shows speeds of 740kms and at the same time dscovr started to have problems 

Good catch! There is still an indication of errors in their graph but a lot less. We are also awaiting a CH HSS so this might be some influence from that too. It's hard to tell since the density is so low on ACE. Feels like the density at least should go up a little if it was a CME. Really hard to tell at the moment.

EDIT: I took a second look and combined some parameters and yes it looks like it might be another shock from a CME.

Edited February 27, 2023 by arjemma

[MinYoongi]

7 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Good catch! There is still an indication of errors in their graph but a lot less. We are also awaiting a CH HSS so this might be some influence from that too. It's hard to tell since the density is so low on ACE. Feels like the density at least should go up a little if it was a CME. Really hard to tell at the moment.

EDIT: I took a second look and combined some parameters and yes it looks like it might be another shock from a CME.

Ace always has density issues. I hope dscovr gets its shit together. Bz swung northward on both aircraft so I think that’s real data. When dscovr acts up ace is trustable (but not for density)