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AR 13229, X2.28 flare!


MinYoongi
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1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

It certainly is the arrival of the 2nd CME

Yea I'm more leaning towards a CH HSS now since the Bt only went up slightly. Or it's just fluctuations. The bigger CME from 25th would create a much bigger shock than this.

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1 minute ago, arjemma said:

Yea I'm more leaning towards a CH HSS now since the Bt only went up slightly. Or it's just fluctuations. The bigger CME from 25th would create a much bigger shock than this.

I’m agreeing with you but someone on twitter claims it to be the CME too .. but wouldn’t it be too early ? And ch has above 700kms? Only saw that once

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1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

I’m agreeing with you but someone on twitter claims it to be the CME too .. but wouldn’t it be too early ? And ch has above 700kms? Only saw that once

Yea I saw that people are going a bit crazy on Twitter and also on Facebook. I think it's a combination of the CME we already have and the CH HSS. The CME enhances the speed of the CH HSS so combined the speed will be high. That's my take on this at least.

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13 minutes ago, helios said:

Temperature is a bit high for a CME shock though (and density too low on ACE), I would also guess that it's HSS.

Again, don’t trust ace with density. It is a known problem. 

16 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

It is an early arrival. 800km/s would be a mach, plus ACE's shock on all parameters.

Interesting!

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8 minutes ago, David Silver said:

Wind speed over 800 is exciting. Question: why does the wind on front page display with vertical jumps rather than gradual climb?

 

03822FBE-AF66-46CB-90CB-9F288A651D86.jpeg

Cuz dscovr is having issues with its faraday cup again

I think this might be the fastest I’ve seen the solar wind :) I have to check the Archive to make 100% sure though. I know it was pushing 800 with a ch hss in 2019. 

I think this might be the fastest I’ve seen the solar wind :) I have to check the Archive to make 100% sure though. I know it was pushing 800 with a ch hss in 2019. 

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Yes, solar wind over 800kps is highest I have seen in three years of daily solar weather ...(obsession) watching.

Yes, Northward Bz means our shields are up (Earth's field is deflecting effectively) and aurora can be diminished, but there is a lot of chaos involved. Depending how the energy whips in the tail, and gaps that form, particles can get in to create the aurora. I would be very surprised if there isn't aurora tonight, including some lower latitudes.

The magnetosphere is fun to watch today. Some pretty intense bow shock impacts. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-magnetosphere-movies

Edited by David Silver
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11 minutes ago, David Silver said:

Yes, solar wind over 800kps is highest I have seen in three years of daily solar weather ...(obsession) watching.

Yes, Northward Bz means our shields are up (Earth's field is deflecting effectively) and aurora can be diminished, but there is a lot of chaos involved. Depending how the energy whips in the tail, and gaps that form, particles can get in to create the aurora. I would be very surprised if there isn't aurora tonight, including some lower latitudes.

The magnetosphere is fun to watch today. Some pretty intense bow shock impacts. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-magnetosphere-movies

I believe the Nov 4th CME had solar winds >900

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I'm at around latitude 59, with a solar wind speed over 800+ how low does the actual -bz have to go in order for me to have a great show, or is the current one good enough?

I've always seen the auroras good here during substorms only when the bz has been around -10 or under for hours, but the solar wind has always been 600 or under during those times.

 

Edited by mozy
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3 minutes ago, mozy said:

I'm at around latitude 59, with a solar wind speed over 800+ how low does the actual -bz have to go in order for me to have a great show, or is the current one good enough?

I've always seen the auroras good here during substorms only when the bz has been around -10 or under for hours, but the solar wind has always been 600 or under during those times.

 

I think with the speeds up and the kp in Storm for a while you can be lucky with less than -10. I’d carefully watch twitter !

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