mozy Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, MinYoongi said: Looks a bit more westward, correct me if im wrong ? Also how do you determine density in imagery available rn? I never paid much attention to that You could see more intense plasma erupting from the last filament compared to this one. I'd expect a glancing blow at best aswell for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, mozy said: I'd expect a glancing blow at best aswell for this one. So you think there's a chance its not at all headed our way? (with current data ofc) i dont see as much dimming and i dont know if its right but could the coronal stream hole push it away and stop it from "spreading" across the disc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Long duration M6 flare. The first powerful earth directed solar storm this solar cycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 25, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: So you think there's a chance its not at all headed our way? (with current data ofc) If you look at on SDO difference imagery bulk is headed northwest so most will miss us so likely like yesterday a glancing blow is possible. peaked at M6,35! A rise in primary solar protons is expected with a chance of reaching S1. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: If you look at on SDO difference imagery bulk is headed northwest so most will miss us so likely like yesterday a glancing blow is possible. A rise in primary solar protons is expected with a chance of reaching S1. Does the still partially ongoing SEP event from the last one make it easier for another event to reach a higher level then it could have if it was starting from quiet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minuten geleden, Sam Warfel zei: Does the still partially ongoing SEP event from the last one make it easier for another event to reach a higher level then it could have if it was starting from quiet? Not immediately but it’s a stronger flare and long duration so a rise can be expected as the previous is already waning. We should see a rise in low energy electrons too on EPAM soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 STEREO A gets the first peak at the CME. Only one coronagraph image so far though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 15 minutes ago, mozy said: You could see more intense plasma erupting from the last filament compared to this one. I'd expect a glancing blow at best aswell for this one. This one’s Type II was only 500km/s as opposed to the last one’s, what was it, 1000, 800? This is much slower anyway. 11 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said: Long duration M6 flare. The first powerful earth directed solar storm this solar cycle? No, we’ve had a number so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minuten geleden, Sam Warfel zei: This one’s Type II was only 500km/s as opposed to the last one’s, what was it, 1000, 800? This is much slower anyway. That’s a bit disappointing indeed, maybe it’s due to the very slow rise. So far my enthousiasm 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said: This one’s Type II was only 500km/s as opposed to the last one’s, what was it, 1000, 800? This is much slower anyway. No, we’ve had a number so far. It looked pretty fast on SUVI atleast, idk if that changes anything though 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 A better video than I could make will come out eventually, but watching the shock travel across the Sun is always amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 @Vancanneyt Sander @mozy @Sam Warfel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 First primary solar protons are arriving it seems. Low energy electrons showed a sharp rise as expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 This was another impressive CME eruption. Looks a bit weaker than the one from yesterday but still pretty good. I'm impatiently waiting for LASCO now. We have some images from STEREO already but LASCO will be more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 And we quickly have a S1 solar radiation storm in progress, as it was expected after the M6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: And we quickly have a S1 solar radiation storm in progress, as it was expected after the M6 It might even go higher than S1 because of it’s location we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minuten geleden, SpaceWeather5464 zei: It might even go higher than S1 because of it’s location we will see. Could be, low energy electrons on EPAM had a much bigger peak than yesterday. It’s a candidate for strongest proton event of SC25 (if it passes 32K pfu) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 what about the cme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: what about the cme? Protons are the first thing that arrive, it’s faster than LASCO images to be available 😂 be patient as we await LASCO imagery… chances are very likely it’s an asymmetrical halo CME like yesterday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Patience?? what is that praytell?? 🤣🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: what about the cme? The CME hasn't gone through all of STEREO A's coronagraph view so far to make a preliminary forecast, but I'm estimating a travel time to SA of 2-2.5 days. Arriving at Earth a few hours earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 does the radio emission speed say anything about the CME speed? 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The CME hasn't gone through all of STEREO A's coronagraph view so far to make a preliminary forecast, but I'm estimating a travel time to SA of 2-2.5 days. Arriving at Earth a few hours earlier. A few hours earlier than what 14 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Protons are the first thing that arrive, it’s faster than LASCO images to be available 😂 be patient as we await LASCO imagery… chances are very likely it’s an asymmetrical halo CME like yesterday https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa_data_tree/model/heliosphere/wsa-enlil-cone/animation-cme-density/2023/02/20230225_214400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif we have a run already but how can it be more earth directed than the last? 49 minutes ago, arjemma said: This was another impressive CME eruption. Looks a bit weaker than the one from yesterday but still pretty good. I'm impatiently waiting for LASCO now. We have some images from STEREO already but LASCO will be more interesting. why does it look weaker? im shit at reading stereo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: A few hours earlier than what The CME arriving at Earth a few hours before arriving at STEREO A. The impact at SA being a glancing blow if it makes it through the CH at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: does the radio emission speed say anything about the CME speed? No, radio emission is not equal to CME speed! 3 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: we have a run already but how can it be more earth directed than the last? It’s a preliminary model run without even knowing the CME propagation from LASCO imagery so don’t take the model for truth! Let’s await till ALL data is available! Sure it will have an Earthbound component but let’s just await till all LLADCO imagery is there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Jesterface23 said: The CME arriving at Earth a few hours before arriving at STEREO A. The impact at SA being a glancing blow if it makes it through the CH at least. what do you think earth impact is because the iswa model confuses me it shows a full hit? how can that be? Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said: It’s a preliminary model run without even knowing the CME propagation from LASCO imagery so don’t take the model for truth! Let’s await till ALL data is available! Sure it will have an Earthbound component but let’s just await till all LLADCO imagery is there so you dont think it will be a full hit? based off the data thats there? Couldnt it be they have lasco data we dont have yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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