Jesterface23 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, MinYoongi said: @Jesterface23 Hmm i dont know about yesterdays CME in regards to the "bulk hit" i really doubt it Not a direct hit of the bulk, somewhere right near the edge of the bulk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Jesterface23 said: Not a direct hit of the bulk, somewhere right near the edge of the bulk. what do you say to the pictures of the new CME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, MinYoongi said: what do you say to the pictures of the new CME? @arjemma brings up the flux rope and that looks good. I need about 2 more hours of imagery to come in before I give a preliminary forecast for this new CME at L1. For STEREO A I came to a preliminary arrival time of 2023/02/28 00:20Z with a chance of error -6/+8 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 Where can i see the flux rope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 The bright area would be the flux rope and dull is the shock. In the image below are the rough boundaries of the flux rope and shock on the southern side, https://drive.google.com/file/d/13vTrFIviOt5rovogbOhnae1toveKbKye/view 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Jesterface23 said: The bright area would be the flux rope and dull is the shock. In the image below are the rough boundaries of the flux rope and shock on the southern side, https://drive.google.com/file/d/13vTrFIviOt5rovogbOhnae1toveKbKye/view i have this for you 11 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The bright area would be the flux rope and dull is the shock. In the image below are the rough boundaries of the flux rope and shock on the southern side, https://drive.google.com/file/d/13vTrFIviOt5rovogbOhnae1toveKbKye/view Do the red lines indicate the earth faced portion of the cme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: Do the red lines indicate the earth faced portion of the cme? That is SOHO's coronagraph imagery. Roughly, the top red line is the flux rope boundary and bottom is shock boundary that is harder to see in normal imagery. ....... For this latest CME I'll have a preliminary arrival time at L1 of 2023/02/27 16:50Z, a travel time of ~45:30 with a chance of error -5/+7 hours. I'm thinking G3 potential again with this one. Possibly not as fast to arrive, but this flux rope could bring a little more activity. Edited February 26, 2023 by Jesterface23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 26 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: That is SOHO's coronagraph imagery. Roughly, the top red line is the flux rope boundary and bottom is shock boundary that is harder to see in normal imagery. ....... For this latest CME I'll have a preliminary arrival time at L1 of 2023/02/27 16:50Z, a travel time of ~45:30 with a chance of error -5/+7 hours. I'm thinking G3 potential again with this one. Possibly not as fast to arrive, but this flux rope could bring a little more activity. What about the previous one, is that still estimated to arrive at around noon "today" (~12:00Z, February 26), give or take some hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: What about the previous one, is that still estimated to arrive at around noon "today" (~12:00Z, February 26), give or take some hours? "The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Feb), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (27 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (28 Feb). Combined negative-polarity CH HSS and influence from the 24 Feb CME are expected to persist throughout the forecast period. " This too but idk if they leave the new CME out of it I dont know if that includes todays CME 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: What about the previous one, is that still estimated to arrive at around noon "today" (~12:00Z, February 26), give or take some hours? Correct for Friday's CME 21 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: I'll go with a preliminary arrival time of 2023/02/26 12:00Z with a chance of error -4/+6 hours. Roughly a 39:30 travel time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 39 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: For this latest CME I'll have a preliminary arrival time at L1 of 2023/02/27 16:50Z, a travel time of ~45:30 with a chance of error -5/+7 hours. I'm thinking G3 potential again with this one. Possibly not as fast to arrive, but this flux rope could bring a little more activity. So you think more than a shock will arrive? I keep looking at the flux rope but unsure. just for my learning purposes : Is blue whats missing to north west and black whats impacting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: So you think more than a shock will arrive? I keep looking at the flux rope but unsure. Cut the coronagraph imagery in half, going through the Earth-Sun line. If the flux rope is in both halves, filling more than 180 degrees of the imagery, it is Earth directed. We just need to wait and see what arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 Thats too much science for me. x.x i dont get it with the half and 180° stuff 😕 yeah i know we need to wait and see. i just wanna learn to asess stuff better myself. 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Cut the coronagraph imagery in half, going through the Earth-Sun line. If the flux rope is in both halves, filling more than 180 degrees of the imagery, it is Earth directed. We just need to wait and see what arrives. Like this? Ah, as info for anyone interested : Coronagraph imagery following the M6 flare is now available and the energetic CME is clear for us to see. A full halo outline is visible, although the bulk of plasma is heading to the west. Much like the event from yesterday, an Earth directed flank is likely and this could prolong possible storm conditions already expected from the M3 eruption on Friday. The next several nights could be entertaining for aurora sky watchers from middle to high latitudes. The action is predicted to begin late on Sunday (Feb 26). Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 28 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Thats too much science for me. x.x i dont get it with the half and 180° stuff 😕 yeah i know we need to wait and see. i just wanna learn to asess stuff better myself. Like this? Ah, as info for anyone interested : Coronagraph imagery following the M6 flare is now available and the energetic CME is clear for us to see. A full halo outline is visible, although the bulk of plasma is heading to the west. Much like the event from yesterday, an Earth directed flank is likely and this could prolong possible storm conditions already expected from the M3 eruption on Friday. The next several nights could be entertaining for aurora sky watchers from middle to high latitudes. The action is predicted to begin late on Sunday (Feb 26). Stay tuned! Right idea, but the line needs to account for roughly the main direction of the CME; so more like this: If you look at the LASCO imagery with roughly that axis in mind, or something close to it, you should be able to see some ropes extending onto and past it, even though they don't look that strong on the C2 imagery. On the C3 imagery it seems clearer that there are at least some significant parts extending past roughly that line. For reference this is roughly such a line on C3: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 57 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: just for my learning purposes : Is blue whats missing to north west and black whats impacting? The blue circled area would be more around the center of the flux rope. The CME launched at an angle, from the western side of the disk. In the northwest/west side of the imagery the shock and flux rope overlaps its self more than the southeast/east side. You can easily see the difference between the shock and flux rope in the northwest side of the C3 imagery as well. The shock being dull, then the flux rope starts with a bright band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: Right idea, but the line needs to account for roughly the main direction of the CME; so more like this: If you look at the LASCO imagery with roughly that axis in mind, or something close to it, you should be able to see some ropes extending onto and past it, even though they don't look that strong on the C2 imagery. On the C3 imagery it seems clearer that there are at least some significant parts extending past roughly that line. For reference this is roughly such a line on C3: Dont get me wrong, but doesnt that mean theres only a really small part coming at us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Dont get me wrong, but doesnt that mean theres only a really small part coming at us? Correct, you can see the vast majority is on one side of the line, so glancing blow. If it was equally distributed all around the sun, it would be symmetrical full halo, direct hit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Dont get me wrong, but doesnt that mean theres only a really small part coming at us? It's certainly not the main brunt of the whole CME at all, but it does look like a significant part could hit. I'm really no expert, so I'd have to defer to other predictions and models here, even though they might not be accurate themselves. If that is the latest run in the image you just posted that seems like a reasonable interpretation, but from what I gather those models change rather quickly on a running basis, and don't have a great track record for prediction. Ultimately it's in edge cases like this where it's particularly difficult to know; if it's a strong CME that's hitting you head-on you would know it with a lot more accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 is noaa going with a speed just under 700kms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEAurora Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 The NOAA forecast products seem somewhat self contradictory. From what I gather, the NOAA ENLIL model was run specifically for yesterdays M6 CME and shows an impact for around 00UTC on the 28th. Their official forecast is for G1-G2 conditions from 00-09 UTC on the 27th, which seems to be in anticipation of the CME on the 24th… which NOAA didn’t publish ENLIL output for, at least none that I saw. So kind of getting mixed signals. Any new information or insight on the CME expected overnight tonight? Are we still expecting an impact? Or a miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Marcel de Bont Posted February 26, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted February 26, 2023 To my knowledge there are two CMEs on their way to Earth that have a decent to high probability of arriving at Earth. One from the M3 flare and one from the M6 flare. The latter of which has a clearer halo outline and should have a bigger impact at Earth. The M3 flare should arrive between 00 and 12 UTC on 27 February and the M6 CME should follow closely after between 12 UTC 27 February and 00 UTC 28 February. I expect moderate G1 to G2 conditions from the first CME and G2 with a slight chance of G3 conditions when the second CME arrives. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) Can the EPAMp 47-68 keV reach 1,000,000 ... Actually as I said that the CME arrived Edited February 26, 2023 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution arjemma Posted February 26, 2023 Solution Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: Can the EPAMp 47-68 keV reach 1,000,000 ... Actually as I said that the CME arrived Yep it looks like something is arriving at least. On EPAM it sure looks like a CME but is a bit early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Atleast we have a noticeable impact this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 The first CME has reached us I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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