NEAurora Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 2 hours ago, mozy said: We now have a delta with increasing shear, wouldn't surprise me if we start seeing some low grade M-flares soon. Right on schedule with a remarkably impulsive M4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just now, NEAurora said: Right on schedule with a remarkably impulsive M4. Not from this region though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 correct. looks like its incoming brother I have been watching for two days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEAurora Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 hour ago, mozy said: Not from this region though Doh! I even looked a the AiA and thought: huh, that doesn’t look very bright for an M. Completely missed the actual flare over on the limb. Whoops! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Silver Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) Magnetosphere impact movies Actually, with the solar wind speed, density, and temperature increasing all day 2/20, I’d suggest that last nights brief impact was the prior small filament CME and this is the (very) long duration X flare now. That speed bump was seen on more than Discover. Still rising. Impact is fairly minor due to initial Northward Bz. You can always watch watch in near real time to “see” an impact on NOAA’s magnetosphere model. Edited February 20, 2023 by David Silver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) This is the CME from the 17th (arrival ~ /20 09:50Z). The velocities around 460km/s are a perfect fit. We'll find out how much the CH comes into play, but the flux rope could arrive at any time within the next 18 hours if it does arrive. Edited February 20, 2023 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Yes, If 45 minutes ago, NEAurora said: Doh! I even looked a the AiA and thought: huh, that doesn’t look very bright for an M. Completely missed the actual flare over on the limb. Whoops! you look at the recent flares list you will see this unnamed guy for the last few days or so. With any luck it will launch some CMEs in coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) I didn't think the first impact was the X2 CME either but everyone said it was, protons are still rising, don't they usually start declining once the CME has hit unless there's more on the way? Edited February 20, 2023 by mozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, mozy said: I didn't think the first impact was the X2 CME either but everyone said it was, protons are still rising, don't they usually start declining once the CME has hit unless there's more on the way? It does happen. Actually going back to the previous cycle's strongest solar flare, the proton flux levels continued to rise for almost 4 hours after the CME's arrival. I can't say why. That CME was a little under 3 times faster to arrive though. Edited February 20, 2023 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 5 hours ago, mozy said: We now have a delta with increasing shear, wouldn't surprise me if we start seeing some low grade M-flares soon. How are you getting information about the shear? I've asked around in the past for any tools or imagery to better visualize this, but haven't found anything good so far. Are you looking at the field lines on the uncolorized m-gram? Or perhaps just going by the fact that the positive spot is "squeezed" in between the negative ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: How are you getting information about the shear? I've asked around in the past for any tools or imagery to better visualize this, but haven't found anything good so far. Are you looking at the field lines on the uncolorized m-gram? Or perhaps just going by the fact that the positive spot is "squeezed" in between the negative ones? From what I've learned, the closer the two umbraes of opposite polarities are, the more/better the shear, and they were getting closer & closer, but then one started to decay and nothing came out of it. They were almost touching each other. Edited February 20, 2023 by mozy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, mozy said: From what I've learned, the closer the two umbraes of opposite polarities are, the more/better the shear, and they were getting closer & closer, but then one started to decay and nothing came out of it. They were almost touching each other. Yeah, that's a reasonable proxy as far as I'm concerned too, but I'm not sure if it's always reliable; as you say, even when getting closer it can decay without much or any activity at all, which would indicate that the field lines aren't actually shearing that much. That being said, I still see the positive umbra in this case. It's quite elongated as it sits squeezed between the negative spots, which I would also interpret as more shear. If you look at the PFSS of the uncolorized m-gram, you can see that at least the field lines of the negative region to the right of it are oriented towards the large positive spots (the delta highlighted in the red box): Unfortunately this imagery is a bit chaotic, and I can't see any field line indications for the positive spot in the delta, but I can easily imagine that it's oriented towards the largest negative spots of the region (all the way to the left of the region, not pictured here), and thus that the field lines are essentially parallel to each other, i.e. having a lot of shear. Maybe that's reason to hope for some reconnection and subsequent activity there, but things are of course not always so simple... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 11 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: Yeah, that's a reasonable proxy as far as I'm concerned too, but I'm not sure if it's always reliable; as you say, even when getting closer it can decay without much or any activity at all, which would indicate that the field lines aren't actually shearing that much. That being said, I still see the positive umbra in this case. It's quite elongated as it sits squeezed between the negative spots, which I would also interpret as more shear. If you look at the PFSS of the uncolorized m-gram, you can see that at least the field lines of the negative region to the right of it are oriented towards the large positive spots (the delta highlighted in the red box): Unfortunately this imagery is a bit chaotic, and I can't see any field line indications for the positive spot in the delta, but I can easily imagine that it's oriented towards the largest negative spots of the region (all the way to the left of the region, not pictured here), and thus that the field lines are essentially parallel to each other, i.e. having a lot of shear. Maybe that's reason to hope for some reconnection and subsequent activity there, but things are of course not always so simple... I agree, I have seen several times that there definitely is more than just them being close to each other, some regions just pop constantly when they're touching and others don't do anything, I'm just going after what I've been told Well this region is falling apart for now, still gotta keep an eye on that filament stretching out from the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 AR13229 now at N25W00 - we're looking right at you! You got anything left? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Looks very un-complex, sadly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MatejGrek Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Looks like the region is slowly saying its goodbyes with a bang! A very nice M3.73 flare right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf star Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 (edited) M3.73 nyní z této oblasti... Edited February 24, 2023 by Wolf star Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 6 minuten geleden, MatejGrek zei: Looks like the region is slowly saying its goodbyes with a bang! A very nice M3.73 flare right now. Welcome! Very nice eruption yes triggered by a filament that released. Should be a CME, lets hope it is aimed at Earth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calder Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 M3.73… Guess it’s still got some complexity to it. Still looks pretty boring though. 😆 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Calder said: M3.73… Guess it’s still got some complexity to it. Still looks pretty boring though. 😆 It got triggered by the filament, nothing more to see here 😅 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calder Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: Very nice eruption yes triggered by a filament that released. 2 minutes ago, mozy said: It got triggered by the filament, nothing more to see here 😅 Yup, that would explain it. Didn’t notice the filament there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf star Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 25 minutes ago, mozy said: Spustilo to vlákno, nic víc tady není vidět 😅 But high values persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Protons are on the rise following the long duration filament eruption, we might reach S1 minor space radiation storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris, HB9DFG Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 ...oh, that's a nice one from 3229, even when just an M3.7. But a very slow decaying looks good... Now the onehundred thousand dollar question is it: - CME departing earth directed or - CME departing again with a very steep angle upwards oder sindeways for passing earth anew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Looking at SDO imagery bulk will be headed upwards, this is also seen in LASCO imagery where we already see a bow leaving upwards. But we’ll need to see further LASCO imagery to see if there is a sign of a partial full halo or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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