MinYoongi Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, mozy said: Protons are starting to rise so I assume it's getting closer now as we speak. How long does it take from rise - impact ? 41 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Saw that with STEREO A last night (or early this morning), it is breaking through the CIR that is on its way. is that good for auroral activity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 14 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: is that good for auroral activity? Just guessing, it may have more of an impact on the shock arrival and the few hours following. No idea which direction things could go though. It may still be somewhere within the CIR or it may have passed the CIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 15 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Just guessing, it may have more of an impact on the shock arrival and the few hours following. No idea which direction things could go though. It may still be somewhere within the CIR or it may have passed the CIR. I dont really understand that but uhm..thanks xD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I dont really understand that but uhm..thanks xD Simple answer, we'll find out when it arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vargavinter Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 31 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Simple answer, we'll find out when it arrives Is there at least an appropriate timeframe when it can arrive? Pondering whether we should get in a car in the next hour and go wait and watch, or just go to sleep, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: How long does it take from rise - impact ? Not sure, I think it varies with every CME, they're always different from what I've seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, mozy said: Not sure, I think it varies with every CME, they're always different from what I've seen. Yeah, i remember waiting 24h for one, or even more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 19, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 uur terug, Vargavinter zei: Is there at least an appropriate timeframe when it can arrive? Pondering whether we should get in a car in the next hour and go wait and watch, or just go to sleep, lol CME’s are always a waiting game. None of the predictions is spot on, there is always a gap of plus and minus 8 hours for the predicted arrival time. When it arrives you’ll see it in the data and then you’ll have approximately 40-60 minutes (depending on CME travel speed) when it hits the Earth. And even then it’s still not known what the direction of the IMF will do to even know if there will be a good display. Conclusion: wait and see when it arrives and then decide 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: CME’s are always a waiting game. None of the predictions is spot on, there is always a gap of plus and minus 8 hours for the predicted arrival time. When it arrives you’ll see it in the data and then you’ll have approximately 40-60 minutes (depending on CME travel speed) when it hits the Earth. And even then it’s still not known what the direction of the IMF will do to even know if there will be a good display. Conclusion: wait and see when it arrives and then decide With the way the EPAM rise is tapering off, I'm worried it missed. But we saw a full halo, we should get at least something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 It is still too early. If it hasn't arrived within the next 12 hours you might have to start worrying but not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 STEREO A's particle values are on the rise and should be the first to be impacted. It looks like SA's data may cut out shortly past midnight UTC though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 Still waiting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Silver Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 That's a DSCOVR having glitchy data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cronus Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 5 evenly placed peaks and then a big one 3 times in a row, maybe 4>>??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 That’s a glitch, not a CME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 On 2/18/2023 at 7:44 PM, RajSim said: AR 13229 magnetic classification is beta-delta; Can we hope for some fireworks in when its in a favorable position soon? Magnetic classification that includes delta certainly increases the probability of a strong flare. Current probability of an X flare from AR13229 is 15%. In approximately two more days AR13229 will be crossing the Sun's central meridian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just Dscovr acting up again. No arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Drax Spacex said: Magnetic classification that includes delta certainly increases the probability of a strong flare. Current probability of an X flare from AR13229 is 15%. In approximately two more days AR13229 will be crossing the Sun's central meridian. The X2 was an amazing flare, but I’d like to see a wide and southerly CME right at the meridian! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) (Don't let the filaments do all the work)(it worked last time) ..... The EPAMp is on the move, an arrival may be within the next few hours. Edited February 20, 2023 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 57 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: (Don't let the filaments do all the work)(it worked last time) ..... The EPAMp is on the move, an arrival may be within the next few hours. Yep! but since the impact is way later than (I) anticipated i now go with G1-G2 at best too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 (edited) So, did it arrive or is it something else? Edited February 20, 2023 by mozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 2 hours ago, mozy said: So, did it arrive or is it something else? Yes it arrived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 We now have a delta with increasing shear, wouldn't surprise me if we start seeing some low grade M-flares soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Well, the shock is decent besides the lack of negative Bz. The flux rope may still be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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