Philalethes Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 19 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Really?? I would expect X radiation to travel at light speed or close to it. Particle events ( proton) take longer of course. Or were you inferring something else perhaps? They were just referring to how the after-effects of the flare will cause a prolonged emission of X-radiation; the X-rays themselves are of course traveling at the speed of light, since they are electromagnetic waves. If you look at the SDO footage at e.g. 131 Å, you can see how the coronal loops are visibly glowing at M-flare level for many hours after the eruption (as registered by GOES as well). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 (edited) Yeah, thanks PB kinda figgered that but was up too late🙄 29 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Yeah, thanks PB kinda figgered that but was up too late🙄 Oh yeah, my brain popped up with an answer anyway. Relativistic motion as in our departure from the sun could explain an apparent delay in travel times. ( red shift). Let’s all hope governments cannot mess with THOSE laws🤣🤣 Edited February 18, 2023 by hamateur 1953 clarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 So what do you guys think impact wise? Nasa and noaa published very different enlils and im confused as *** @mozy @Jesterface23 @Vancanneyt Sander Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 A part of the flux rope made it our way, so I'd guess there is a chance at G2. The CME may arrive during a CIR or CH HSS entry as well, possibly to help give some activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: A part of the flux rope made it our way, so I'd guess there is a chance at G2. The CME may arrive during a CIR or CH HSS entry as well, possibly to help give some activity. How can you determine the flux rope component? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said: How can you determine the flux rope component? In the coronagraph imagery there is the bright halo all the way around and that would be a least a little bit of the flux rope. What is hard to see is there is a dull shock ahead of it on the southern side of the coronagraph imagery. That shock seems to have had a hard time getting through the central disk CH going past the southwest side of the imagery. Roughly the southern shock and flux rope boundaries below, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yTnAErucIOuhaSzUz3qQTAvaLBIslhZo/view Edited February 19, 2023 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 "Quiet to active conditions on 19 Feb are likely to increase to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, with a chance of G2 (Moderate), on 20 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 20 Feb. Active conditions are again likely on 21 Feb as CME influence wanes." They did a typo lol. "that left the sun on 20 feb" .. its the 19th barely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RajSim Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 AR 13229 magnetic classification is beta-delta; Can we hope for some fireworks in when its in a favorable position soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: A part of the flux rope made it our way, so I'd guess there is a chance at G2. The CME may arrive during a CIR or CH HSS entry as well, possibly to help give some activity. ive seen some "forecast" on cme scoreboard for 6-8 KP wise i think thats a bit redicoulous. I just wonder why nasa and noaa are so different this time with their enlil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: ive seen some "forecast" on cme scoreboard for 6-8 KP wise i think thats a bit redicoulous. I just wonder why nasa and noaa are so different this time with their enlil The specific model run has the CME aimed almost directly at STEREO A, so there is one flaw right off the bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The specific model run has the CME aimed almost directly at STEREO A, so there is one flaw right off the bat. Really? Did you look at it and the others specifically? so you go with G1-G2 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 (edited) 24 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Really? Did you look at it and the others specifically? so you go with G1-G2 ? This is the model run, http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif G2 would just be my estimated guess, using possible reasonable travel times, what part of the CME is on its way, other factors, but still always learning. Edited February 19, 2023 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: This is the model run, http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif G2 would just be my estimated guess, using possible reasonable travel times, what part of the CME is on its way, other factors, but still always learning. Thank you. i just doubt G4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Thank you. i just doubt G4 That is why the CME scoreboard values are always all over the place, and it’s not a good place to draw public-facing information from, as there will usually be at least one model that’s unusually high, but that’s not the point, the point is more what they all average out to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 32 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said: That is why the CME scoreboard values are always all over the place, and it’s not a good place to draw public-facing information from, as there will usually be at least one model that’s unusually high, but that’s not the point, the point is more what they all average out to Yeah. But still, how can noaa‘s enlil be that extremely different too nasas? Some still say nothing much will arrive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Starting to become a bit more complex. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 19 minutes ago, mozy said: Starting to become a bit more complex. Really hard to tell, but is there a tiny delta in the area you encircled? Or is that area more „gamma“ ? the region was classified as beta delta, but I’m not sure there’s another delta or if it maybe died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Really hard to tell, but is there a tiny delta in the area you encircled? Or is that area more „gamma“ ? the region was classified as beta delta, but I’m not sure there’s another delta or if it maybe died. Wouldn't call it a delta just yet, but yes it sure could be one in the next hour as it continues to grow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 The CME scoreboard is a bit weird. Someone re-issued their run I think with Kp7-9 ? 9? For a glancing blow with the bulk missing us? @Sam Warfel you may be right with it being all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: The CME scoreboard is a bit weird. Someone re-issued their run I think with Kp7-9 ? 9? For a glancing blow with the bulk missing us? @Sam Warfel you may be right with it being all over the place This shows we really need to improve the forecasts for these types of events lol. I don't expect anything over KP 6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Especially since we don’t have impact yet and time is ticking, it will probably be on the weaker side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said: Especially since we don’t have impact yet and time is ticking, it will probably be on the weaker side Protons are starting to rise so I assume it's getting closer now as we speak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 53 minutes ago, mozy said: Protons are starting to rise so I assume it's getting closer now as we speak. Yes, it’s a decent rise on EPAM. I expect impact within a couple hours. That being said, a near miss can produce the same effect, snowplowing particles onto EPAM, but then the actual CME just missing, and producing no actual impact 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, mozy said: Protons are starting to rise so I assume it's getting closer now as we speak. Saw that with STEREO A last night (or early this morning), it is breaking through the CIR that is on its way. Edited February 19, 2023 by Jesterface23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Silver Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 The geomagnetic storm and aurora will depend on how the Bz is/reacts during impact. If “Northward” minor, if “South” it will be more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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