Jump to content

AR 13229, X2.28 flare!


MinYoongi
Go to solution Solved by arjemma,

Recommended Posts

19 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Really?? I would expect X radiation to travel at light speed or close to it. Particle events ( proton) take longer of course.  Or were you inferring something else perhaps? 

They were just referring to how the after-effects of the flare will cause a prolonged emission of X-radiation; the X-rays themselves are of course traveling at the speed of light, since they are electromagnetic waves. If you look at the SDO footage at e.g. 131 Å, you can see how the coronal loops are visibly glowing at M-flare level for many hours after the eruption (as registered by GOES as well).

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, thanks PB kinda figgered that but was up too late🙄

29 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Yeah, thanks PB kinda figgered that but was up too late🙄

Oh yeah, my brain popped up with an answer anyway.  Relativistic motion as in our departure from the sun could explain an apparent delay in travel times.  ( red shift). Let’s all hope governments cannot mess with THOSE  laws🤣🤣

Edited by hamateur 1953
clarity
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

How can you determine the flux rope component?

In the coronagraph imagery there is the bright halo all the way around and that would be a least a little bit of the flux rope. What is hard to see is there is a dull shock ahead of it on the southern side of the coronagraph imagery. That shock seems to have had a hard time getting through the central disk CH going past the southwest side of the imagery.

Roughly the southern shock and flux rope boundaries below,
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yTnAErucIOuhaSzUz3qQTAvaLBIslhZo/view

Edited by Jesterface23
Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Quiet to active conditions on 19 Feb are likely to increase to G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm levels, with a chance of G2 (Moderate), on 20
Feb due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 20 Feb.
Active conditions are again likely on 21 Feb as CME influence wanes."

 

They did a typo lol. :D "that left the sun on 20 feb"  .. its the 19th barely :D 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

A part of the flux rope made it our way, so I'd guess there is a chance at G2. The CME may arrive during a CIR or CH HSS entry as well, possibly to help give some activity.

ive seen some "forecast" on cme scoreboard for 6-8 KP wise i think thats a bit redicoulous. I just wonder why nasa and noaa are so different this time with their enlil

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

ive seen some "forecast" on cme scoreboard for 6-8 KP wise i think thats a bit redicoulous. I just wonder why nasa and noaa are so different this time with their enlil

The specific model run has the CME aimed almost directly at STEREO A, so there is one flaw right off the bat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Really? Did you look at it and the others specifically? so you go with G1-G2 ?

This is the model run, http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif

G2 would just be my estimated guess, using possible reasonable travel times, what part of the CME is on its way, other factors, but still always learning.

Edited by Jesterface23
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

This is the model run, http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230217_220800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif

G2 would just be my estimated guess, using possible reasonable travel times, what part of the CME is on its way, other factors, but still always learning.

Thank you. i just doubt G4

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you. i just doubt G4

That is why the CME scoreboard values are always all over the place, and it’s not a good place to draw public-facing information from, as there will usually be at least one model that’s unusually high, but that’s not the point, the point is more what they all average out to 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

That is why the CME scoreboard values are always all over the place, and it’s not a good place to draw public-facing information from, as there will usually be at least one model that’s unusually high, but that’s not the point, the point is more what they all average out to 

Yeah. But still, how can noaa‘s enlil be that extremely different too nasas? Some still say nothing much will arrive 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, mozy said:

Starting to become a bit more complex.

56efbbe72ffdfbd96798564741fe9b9f.png

e63df7a0128e78f00bb30d1b50e4b441.png

 

Really hard to tell, but is there a tiny delta in the area you encircled? Or is that area more „gamma“ ?

the region was classified as beta delta, but I’m not sure there’s another delta or if it maybe died.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Really hard to tell, but is there a tiny delta in the area you encircled? Or is that area more „gamma“ ?

the region was classified as beta delta, but I’m not sure there’s another delta or if it maybe died.

Wouldn't call it a delta just yet, but yes it sure could be one in the next hour as it continues to grow.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

The CME scoreboard is a bit weird. Someone re-issued their run I think with Kp7-9 ? 9? For a glancing blow with the bulk missing us? @Sam Warfel you may be right with it being all over the place

This shows we really need to improve the forecasts for these types of events lol.

I don't expect anything over KP 6.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

Especially since we don’t have impact yet and time is ticking, it will probably be on the weaker side 

Protons are starting to rise so I assume it's getting closer now as we speak.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, mozy said:

Protons are starting to rise so I assume it's getting closer now as we speak.

Yes, it’s a decent rise on EPAM. I expect impact within a couple hours.

That being said, a near miss can produce the same effect, snowplowing particles onto EPAM, but then the actual CME just missing, and producing no actual impact 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue. By using this site, you also agree to our Terms of Use and our Privacy Policy.