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AR 13229, X2.28 flare!


MinYoongi
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2 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

im still puzzled as to how this flare got produced?

Keep in mind that the region is close to the limb so it’s exact magnetic layout can’t be seen yet. That’s a part of the explanation. Otherwise a regions magnetic field lines can just sometimes interfere and produce a flare despite the magnetic layout, those are like Marcel already said some surprises of the Sun. Don’t break your head on it ;) 

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10 minutes ago, Tristan said:

Hopefully, this rather unassuming region can produce another surprise as it rotates into a better Earth-facing position.

The limb curse will probably strike again. I wouldn't be surprised if it's all nice and quiet while earth directed and then when it's closing the limb again it will go off haha

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4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

im still puzzled as to how this flare got produced?

Well, you see, when a daddy flare and a mommy flare love each other very much...

Jokes aside though, I have no idea either. Still waiting for it to come clearer into view, but this seems to me like one of those "out of nowhere" cases; perhaps very strong subsurface activity? Maybe most flares and eruptions from highly active regions are more like active volcanoes that are expected to possibly erupt, while events like this is more like a dormant volcano suddenly erupting out of nowhere due to activity far below the surface. No idea if this is an accurate analogy at all, neither in general nor in this particular case, but I have to at least try to explain things in terms of what I can understand better.

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6 minutes ago, arjemma said:

The limb curse will probably strike again. I wouldn't be surprised if it's all nice and quiet while earth directed and then when it's closing the limb again it will go off haha

Yeah we could see new flux developing as it leaves center disk and activity ramping up again as it approaches the East limb, wouldn't be the first time that has happened this cycle. It could even erupt with a full halo CME that never arrives. I'm not sure how that happens, but it does. I do however think that the curse(s) may be in part a byproduct of our human brains and their inherent biases as well as some fundamental gaps in knowledge.

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38 minutes ago, mozy said:

Most likely y, even if it doesn't hit earth at all I'm just happy we're starting to see bigger eruptions lol

I think it being a full halo means something must arrive, but im not too sure. A bit confused with all the EIt wave, shock wave and "earth directed component" talk

32 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Really nice eruption with nice coronal waves and STEREO A shows full halo CME although the most of the ejecta going upwards. Will be interesting to see LASCO images but it does look like it might have an earth directed component even if the most of it seems to miss us. I'm so impatient for LASCO now... 🙄

Keep me updated!

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2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I think it being a full halo means something must arrive, but im not too sure. A bit confused with all the EIt wave, shock wave and "earth directed component" talk

Keep me updated!

That's what happens when people try to come to conclusions before we have good imagery ^^

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5 minutes ago, mozy said:

That's what happens when people try to come to conclusions before we have good imagery ^^

Yea it's always best to wait for decent imagery before jumping to conclusions. Right now it's more of a guess that it might have a earth directed component depending on how the dimming and STEREO A coronagraph's looks. Nothing is for certain though and we must wait for LASCO. It does look that STEREO A at least will be hit, but we don't know for earth yet.

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5 minutes ago, mozy said:

That's what happens when people try to come to conclusions before we have good imagery ^^

 

3 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Yea it's always best to wait for decent imagery before jumping to conclusions. Right now it's more of a guess that it might have a earth directed component depending on how the dimming and STEREO A coronagraph's looks. Nothing is for certain though and we must wait for LASCO. It does look that STEREO A at least will be hit, but we don't know for earth yet.

here some info for you!

4 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Sure gave our 10.7 a bump back up!!  343 for the day!   To be continued….

The 20UTC measurements were taken during the flare so theyre not accurate

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5 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Of course, naturally. What I find amazing is the sloooow descent. 

Yeah im wondering about that too.

3 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

What this heck is this?
Imaging artifact, surely?

image.png.f44bdafc2a9ab7fe9b5bdb5897294d1a.png

image.png.1d99f3fc514db0affe40b58a3d5ac085.png

yes, im sure its a glitch.

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34 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

The 20UTC measurements were taken during the flare so theyre not accurate

What source are you using for "live" F10.7 measurements? I didn't search very hard, but I struggled with finding any sites providing relatively "live" data (e.g. updated hourly or so). I see the front page on this site also reflects the higher flux, so I assume that's being taken from such a "live" source as well.

Edited by Philalethes Bythos
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4 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

What source are you using for "live" F10.7 measurements? I didn't search very hard, but I struggled with finding any sites providing relatively "live" data (e.g. updated hourly or so). I see the front page on this site also reflects the higher flux, so I assume that's being taken from such a "live" source as well.

Theres no live data to sfi, sadly. they take 3 measurements per day. 18/20/22 UTC

and they always use the 20UTC measurement as the official daily flux. but this number is obscured due to the flaring, and is thus not to be taken serious.

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6 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

What source are you using for "live" F10.7 measurements? I didn't search very hard, but I struggled with finding any sites providing relatively "live" data (e.g. updated hourly or so). I see the front page on this site also reflects the higher flux, so I assume that's being taken from such a "live" source as well.

This is the one I use. Much lower at 22UTC.

https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

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Using our site for live flux and the published three times daily source available as a link “ flux data” on solar ham. Look at the far left column obs for observed or OBS after scrolling to today’s date.  They just called out 182 for today and Thank you Min! as always she catches my errors….. 🤣🤣👍

Edited by hamateur 1953
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2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Theres no live data to sfi, sadly. they take 3 measurements per day. 18/20/22 UTC

and they always use the 20UTC measurement as the official daily flux. but this number is obscured due to the flaring, and is thus not to be taken serious.

1 minute ago, Tristan said:

Alright, thanks; I guess I hadn't missed anything then. But yeah, I guess it was just "lucky" that the flare happened right in the middle of the daily flux measurements with regards to how it's reflected on the front page.

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4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

I'd put a preliminary arrival time for STEREO A at around /20 01:30Z -9/+6 hours at a travel time of ~53.4 hours. Earth might be a few hours later, but waiting on SOHO's imagery like everyone else.

But wasnt the CME super fast?

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