Solarflaretracker200 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Couldnt it be they have lasco data we dont have yet I would just wait until its posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: so you dont think it will be a full hit? based off the data thats there? No, glancing blow. Bulk headed northwest just like yesterday. Just WAIT for LASCO imagery to become available. Be patient! and it’s official, strongest solar proton event of SC25! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 NASA is pumping out 950km/sec arrival and KP8 for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said: and it’s official, strongest solar proton event of SC25! And i didnt miss it? Huh. im not dreaming either Well, im impressed im not missing this 😂 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: KP8 for tomorrow Wait, KP 8? How? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 idk thats why im asking if thats even possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: NASA is pumping out 950km/sec arrival and KP8 for tomorrow Woah, where have you seen that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, arjemma said: Woah, where have you seen that? i linked the model a few answers above they even did a rerun thats why im asking. on twitter we're discussing it right now because nasa model has it as a full hit but to us it makes no sense so thats why i asked @Vancanneyt Sander 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: what do you think earth impact is because the iswa model confuses me it shows a full hit? how can that be? As @Vancanneyt Sander said, it is a preliminary model run. Simple and not a lot of detail to it. The X2.2 CME model run did something similar, the CME aimed almost directly at SA in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 They already did 2 runs now. how earth directed looks the CME for you guys? I thought it would only be a shock wave hit because the bulk misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: NASA is pumping out 950km/sec arrival and KP8 for tomorrow No official predictions are out! Don’t overhype it. Predictions for yesterdays event is Kp5-Kp7. Much will depend what the IMF will do and what the other parameters are at arrival. official predictions will come out tomorrow during UTC hours when ALL data is available. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said: No official predictions are out! Don’t overhype it. Predictions for yesterdays event is Kp5-Kp7. Much will depend what the IMF will do and what the other parameters are at arrival. official predictions will come out tomorrow during UTC hours when ALL data is available. I dont try to overhype it and i know its not official yet, but its the NEWEST cme modelled 2 times shown as a full hit so ofc im gonna ask how they come to that conclusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No pseudoscience Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: what do you think earth impact is because the iswa model confuses me it shows a full hit? how can that be? Not much, unless you are close enough to the poles that you can see the aurora, you probably won't even notice a CME, the only way that I have ever been affected by a CME was when I was so anxious that I couldn't sleep (yes that really happened), so don't worry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 14 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I dont try to overhype it and i know its not official yet, but its the NEWEST cme modelled 2 times shown as a full hit so ofc im gonna ask how they come to that conclusion It’s just a guess tbh 🤷♀️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, No pseudoscience said: Not much, unless you are close enough to the poles that you can see the aurora, you probably won't even notice a CME, the only way that I have ever been affected by a CME was when I was so anxious that I couldn't sleep (yes that really happened), so don't worry. Thank you for the comment but that wasnt my question, i may worded it wrong! Sorry I was asking how much of an earth directed portion this CME really has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, No pseudoscience said: Not much, unless you are close enough to the poles that you can see the aurora, you probably won't even notice a CME, the only way that I have ever been affected by a CME was when I was so anxious that I couldn't sleep (yes that really happened), so don't worry. I don't think anyone currently present in this thread actually worries about any detrimental impacts of these small CMEs to society or the individual. This is more about predicting and assessing the impact for both scientific reasons and for those who are avid seekers of the aurora; you'll find that there are actually quite a lot of them here. Edited February 25, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No pseudoscience Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Philalethes Bythos said: I don't think anyone currently present in this thread actually worries about any detrimental impacts of these small CMEs to society or the individual. This is more about assessing the impact for both scientific reasons and for those who are avid seekers of the aurora; you'll find that there are actually quite a lot of them here. I misunderstood a question, which i quote in my comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: I don't think anyone currently present in this thread actually worries about any detrimental impacts of these small CMEs to society or the individual. This is more about predicting and assessing the impact for both scientific reasons and for those who are avid seekers of the aurora; you'll find that there are actually quite a lot of them here. Well i agree but i'm a bit baffled by the Nasa Enlil still. Kp8-9 and a FULL hit? im just seeking answers but im impatient Note : I dont know how true this is because data is still crucial. some dont even agree on yesterdays CME arriving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RajSim Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Well i agree but i'm a bit baffled by the Nasa Enlil still. Kp8-9 and a FULL hit? im just seeking answers but im impatient Note : I dont know how true this is because data is still crucial. some dont even agree on yesterdays CME arriving I am anxious and impatient as well with wide range of forecasts. I decided to fly over to Yellowknife, Canada to witness Aurora overhead and got exited with M4 and M6 flares. I am here for couple of more days and praying that we have a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 There are images from LASCO now but there is a gap in the data so far (will probably come later and then we will get a better view). The latest images suggests that we will be hit and it looks more directly on than the CME from yesterday. We need to have patient and wait for the full images from LASCO so we have the whole picture though. SOHO is old and because of some malfunction it can't send images back to earth in full time. We will know more tomorrow but it's really interesting indeed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, arjemma said: There are images from LASCO now but there is a gap in the data so far (will probably come later and then we will get a better view). The latest images suggests that we will be hit and it looks more directly on than the CME from yesterday. We need to have patient and wait for the full images from LASCO so we have the whole picture though. SOHO is old and because of some malfunction it can't send images back to earth in full time. We will know more tomorrow but it's really interesting indeed. No update in Lasco on the SWPC Website yet Sadly cant find anything where the newer frames are shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: No update in Lasco on the SWPC Website yet Sadly cant find anything where the newer frames are shown. This is the layout on ISWA I'm using which usually have the latest. Posting it here so everyone can find it easily: https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?i_1=205&l_1=17&t_1=839&w_1=500&h_1=500&s_1=0_0_10_3&i_2=554&l_2=521&t_2=838&w_2=500&h_2=510&s_2=0_0_10_3&i_3=14&l_3=519&t_3=336&w_3=500&h_3=500&s_3=0_0_10_3&i_4=15&l_4=17&t_4=336&w_4=500&h_4=500&s_4=0_0_10_3 I also have a layout for WSA-ENLIL from NASA if anyone is interested: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?i_1=700&l_1=38&t_1=356&w_1=650&h_1=450&s_1=1&i_2=698&l_2=692&t_2=356&w_2=650&h_2=450&s_2=1_0_0 I would suggest bookmarking them, they are really nice to have and it's fast and easy access. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) 12 hours ago, arjemma said: There are images from LASCO now but there is a gap in the data so far (will probably come later and then we will get a better view). The latest images suggests that we will be hit and it looks more directly on than the CME from yesterday. We need to have patient and wait for the full images from LASCO so we have the whole picture though. SOHO is old and because of some malfunction it can't send images back to earth in full time. We will know more tomorrow but it's really interesting indeed. Interesting. From SUVI it hardly looks eruptive to me at all, but apparently appearances can be deceiving (it's not its primary purpose after all). And yeah, poor old SOHO; I saw Scott and someone else call for a new fleet of SOHOs in orbit around Sol on Twitter, that would be something. Edited February 26, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos typo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) Both CMEs seem to be right near the spot of being either a glancing blow or a edge of the main bulk at L1. STEREO A with a glancing blow for both. Edited February 25, 2023 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 @Jesterface23 Hmm i dont know about yesterdays CME in regards to the "bulk hit" i really doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: Both CMEs seem to be right near the spot of being either a glancing blow or a edge of the main bulk at L1. STEREO A with a glancing blow for both. Yea I agree with glancing blow but looks like there might be some flux rope hitting us than from the CME yesterday. It will be a bit easier to tell when we have more imaging so we can measure and check the running difference of the whole thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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