MinYoongi Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 i wonder why its flaring so much all of a sudden? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 The short duration flare probably triggered the M3 flare. It seems like all it needed was a spark 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: i wonder why its flaring so much all of a sudden? new deltas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, tniickck said: new deltas The delta actually shrunk overnight (compared pictures) 🤔 oh new deltas? im gonna take a look soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheebee Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) 1 hour ago, tniickck said: would you believe me if i told you that in Oct 2014 there was a long duration X4.5 (flux level was above X1 more than 1.5 hours) and there was absolutely nothing in terms of cme? 😁 and this cycle we had a lot of impulsive X-flares including X2.25 with no cme i didnt know about that event but yeh thats why i got a thing for filaments right now.. theyre more often the money shots imo tho i think this spot is a goodun for sure, i have faith Edited February 8 by cheebee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manu Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Philalethes said: Doesn't look like it. Just the smaller one before this flare, which it's hard to say where originated (coincided with a smaller flare from this region, but if it originated there it must have been ejected at an odd angle). Looks like the smaller one originated from this area with opposite polarities but no shared penumbra, yet almost M1 Are there some other hints than delta spots to inform about flare probability? I often hear about complexity, but is there a more specific understanding? Also do you sometimes notice simultaneous flares from (very) distant regions? Is there any understanding about how distant regions may be connected/influenced? Through shockwaves? or internally? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 How’s it looking y’all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Philalethes Posted February 8 Popular Post Share Posted February 8 30 minutes ago, Manu said: Are there some other hints than delta spots to inform about flare probability? I often hear about complexity, but is there a more specific understanding? It's difficult to say. Are there other features that could give a better chance of predicting flares? Probably. Do we know what they are? Well, we have some idea, such as looking at the shear (although as I've lamented before there's a lack of vector magnetograms to look at to get a good idea of this), or the orientation of the spots, but in general I'd assume there are lots of hidden features that we are yet to understand at all. Considering what a minuscule part of just the HMI data the longitudinal magnetograms represent there's probably a huge treasure trove of valuable data to be found there alone. Something else to look out for that isn't any specific feature is to see how the region develops over time. If a region is developing a lot of complexity rapidly it tends to foreshadow that we'll see flaring soon; if in contrast it only develops a meager amount of complexity and takes a long time to do so it's much less likely to flare based on what I've seen, especially if we're talking about the stronger and more eruptive flares. 59 minutes ago, Manu said: Also do you sometimes notice simultaneous flares from (very) distant regions? Is there any understanding about how distant regions may be connected/influenced? Through shockwaves? or internally? Yeah, this is referred to as "sympathetic flaring"; I won't delve into it here, but it has certainly not gone unnoticed, and you can find out a lot more about it if you search for information about it here and elsewhere. I'll state briefly that I doubt the mechanism has anything to do with shockwaves, for some of the most long-range sympathetic flaring (and that's definitely not just chance, as e.g. this study establishes) there must presumably be some magnetic connection between them to account for the simultaneity. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Another flare in progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willow Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 i saw someone mentioning earlier in this thread that you can tell the strength of a spot according to the brightness of a spot shown on a colored magnetogram. is it true? darker red/blue spots = stronger negative/positive spots? if so, the biggest delta in this sunspot group looking good? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 51 minutes ago, willow said: i saw someone mentioning earlier in this thread that you can tell the strength of a spot according to the brightness of a spot shown on a colored magnetogram. is it true? darker red/blue spots = stronger negative/positive spots? if so, the biggest delta in this sunspot group looking good? yep, thats how it works. there was a linked chart here somewhere.. i lost it M flare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, willow said: i saw someone mentioning earlier in this thread that you can tell the strength of a spot according to the brightness of a spot shown on a colored magnetogram. is it true? darker red/blue spots = stronger negative/positive spots? if so, the biggest delta in this sunspot group looking good? The darker color does mean the magnetic field is stronger there (in the direction facing us), but even when quite dark that doesn't always mean there's necessarily a significant spot there; for example, mozy did mention earlier that the other delta where the positive spot was squeezed in between the negative spots oddly enough didn't seem to have the drop in intensity that is what we typically refer to as sunspots, so it's not always clear from the magnetograms exactly what's going on in the most complex regions. The current delta doesn't look that impressive, but it's still solid. Judging by the flaring lately, with weaker and weaker impulsive flares, it doesn't look like it's going to erupt anytime soon, but we've been surprised before. 21 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: there was a linked chart here somewhere.. i lost it This one, presumably; it's linked to from the info button in the corner of the colored magnetogram on the SDO data page. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) Spaceweather dot com has a really cool pic up right now that shows flow over the main spot earlier ( the positive intruding finger) It’s worth a look. Pretty awesome imho. Edited February 8 by hamateur 1953 Polarity confusion 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 What was the poilaty confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 hours ago, Hector the Convector said: That's a little confusing, I would have guessed red to be positive. So, would I be correct in saying that red represents negative "poles", so places where magnetic lines go into the Sun? I agree that it's an odd convention given how the standard is to paint the north pole of a bar magnet red, i.e. where the field lines exit the magnet's surface; you are correct that it's the other way around in the case of the colored magnetogram, where red denotes the places where the field lines enter the Solar surface, which would typically be colored blue on a bar magnet. Thus the red areas are indeed referred to as "negative" or "inward", while the blue areas are referred to as "positive" or "outward". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Is it shrinking or getting bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Nathan Majors said: Is it shrinking or getting bigger i dont know but definitely getting more active 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: What was the poilaty confusion I had originally misidentified the polarity of the intruding “ finger”. That weird blue thing that bugged all of us. Corrected on my edit Edited February 8 by hamateur 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willow Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Philalethes said: The darker color does mean the magnetic field is stronger there (in the direction facing us), but even when quite dark that doesn't always mean there's necessarily a significant spot there; for example, mozy did mention earlier that the other delta where the positive spot was squeezed in between the negative spots oddly enough didn't seem to have the drop in intensity that is what we typically refer to as sunspots, so it's not always clear from the magnetograms exactly what's going on in the most complex regions. The current delta doesn't look that impressive, but it's still solid. Judging by the flaring lately, with weaker and weaker impulsive flares, it doesn't look like it's going to erupt anytime soon, but we've been surprised before. This one, presumably; it's linked to from the info button in the corner of the colored magnetogram on the SDO data page. thank you so much for an explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 37 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: I had originally misidentified the polarity of the intruding “ finger”. That weird blue thing that bugged all of us. Corrected on my edit By the way. Negative being red is the convention here. I wouldn’t use this convention when using automobile jumper cables…. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miles Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 What do you all think? Does this region really pose an X class risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 29 minutes ago, Miles said: What do you all think? Does this region really pose an X class risk? of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 the delta is decaying i think @Philalethes @mozy @tniickck (of course this does not mean the region is boring or a new one cant form) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 (edited) 7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: the delta is decaying i think @Philalethes @mozy @tniickck (of course this does not mean the region is boring or a new one cant form) Yh, looking worse sadly, we need new positive flux to emerge or It'll keep killing itself Edited February 8 by mozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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