Solar_Marcel Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Right in the middle here: Not a very clear umbral core for the positive part, but I'd say that definitely counts as a delta still; it's probably going to flare some more at some point, but at this point I expect it to just be impulsive as it keeps breaking apart. Well why do these regions keep falling apart as they get to the middle, so sad I think the spots also got less big in comparison to before but that could be due to the region still being on the west limb few days prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Thanks for the gif! Ah, why breaking apart? Is it decaying overall? I’m not updated haha can you maybe shoot me the link for the gifs again by the way? I got a new Desktop and did not import my bookmarks. It does look like it's decaying, but then again there is apparently still something there for the opposite umbrae to get this close to one another; as it looks now I'd still predict just some more impulsive flaring, but given its history I guess it wouldn't surprise me if it did something more eruptive either. The link is here, but I'm no longer automatically updating it; whenever I run the script to generate one it also uploads it there (as you can see it's now the one in question, since I ran it to get the gif I just posted), so can't guarantee that it will be up-to-date, but if there's an interesting region I'm paying attention to it'll likely be relatively fresh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Philalethes said: It does look like it's decaying, but then again there is apparently still something there for the opposite umbrae to get this close to one another; as it looks now I'd still predict just some more impulsive flaring, but given its history I guess it wouldn't surprise me if it did something more eruptive either. The link is here, but I'm no longer automatically updating it; whenever I run the script to generate one it also uploads it there (as you can see it's now the one in question, since I ran it to get the gif I just posted), so can't guarantee that it will be up-to-date, but if there's an interesting region I'm paying attention to it'll likely be relatively fresh. thanks for the link! Im a bit confused, the blue looks very light in the magnetogram but i there seems to be umbra, right? how can that be? at first i thought its a case of "phantom penumbra" and its part of the red portion, but it seems to be related to the blue part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 (edited) 29 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: thanks for the link! Im a bit confused, the blue looks very light in the magnetogram but i there seems to be umbra, right? how can that be? at first i thought its a case of "phantom penumbra" and its part of the red portion, but it seems to be related to the blue part Well, like I mentioned the umbral cores are not so clear. Usually there's a very clear difference between umbra and penumbra, but you may have seen in some of the much more complex regions that there's a spectrum from one to the other, sometimes you even have a kind of very dark orange that isn't quite either, right at the transition. In this case I'd say it's clearly dark enough to be umbra, but the fact that it's not quite as dark as umbrae generally are is probably why it looks weaker on the m-gram too, it's probably the magnetic field which isn't quite as strong. Alternatively there can be artifacts in complex regions too for a number of reasons having to do with how the fields are measured and how the imagery is constructed, but I don't think that's really what's happening here. In the very latest imagery it looks like the positive umbra split and that one of the cores grew a little and became more solid, now there's very clearly a delta there. I think we'll see some more flaring from this region before it's done. Edited January 3 by Philalethes typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Well, like I mentioned the umbral cores are not so clear. Usually there's a very clear difference between umbra and penumbra, but you may have seen in some of the much more complex regions that there's a spectrum from one to the other, sometimes you even have a kind of very dark orange that isn't quite either, right at the transition. In this case I'd say it's clearly dark enough to be umbra, but the fact that it's not quite as dark as umbrae generally are is probably why it looks weaker on the m-gram too, it's probably the magnetic field which isn't quite as strong. Alternatively there can be artifacts in complex regions too for a number of reasons having to do with how the fields are measured and how the imagery is constructed, but I don't think that's really what's happening here. In the very latest imagery it looks like the positive umbra split and that one of the cores grew a little and became more solid, now there's very clearly a delta there. I think we'll see some more flaring from this region before it's done. where exactly did it split? i always confuse pos and negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: where exactly did it split? i always confuse pos and negative Should be fairly easy to see here: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 With the more definitive delta, would it be correct to assume that there will likely be another flare that exceeds the strength of the X5 on the 31st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said: With the more definitive delta, would it be correct to assume that there will likely be another flare that exceeds the strength of the X5 on the 31st? I highly doubt that, I'll give it a chance for an upper M-flare at most, if even that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, mozy said: I highly doubt that, I'll give it a chance for an upper M-flare at most, if even that. due to shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said: With the more definitive delta, would it be correct to assume that there will likely be another flare that exceeds the strength of the X5 on the 31st? No, that would definitely not be a good assumption at all. I was just talking about the development of the delta from earlier; a better assumption would be that it might be more likely that we'll see some more M-flares, or maybe even just high-level C-flares. We didn't really have a good view of the region when it fired the X5, so we don't really have any imagery of what the magnetic field configuration looked like at that point; presumably there was a much more prominent delta before that happened, at least that's typical (not always though), but as the regions fire flares the complexity tends to disappear, because the energy of the flares are released from the magnetic fields reorganizing themselves from less stable to more stable configurations, not really that different from the general principle behind explosives and other similar types of chain reactions. Could it do another X-flare? It's not impossible, but I don't think it's that likely at all as it stands now; and if it actually did I doubt it'd be stronger than the X5 one anyway. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just before this sunspot produced the X5 solar flare days ago it was doing this weird cycle of long duration C class flares. If the sunspot does this again it might mean another flare is coming. As of now there is a long duration C2 Flare coming from this sunspot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Philalethes said: No, that would definitely not be a good assumption at all. I was just talking about the development of the delta from earlier; a better assumption would be that it might be more likely that we'll see some more M-flares, or maybe even just high-level C-flares. We didn't really have a good view of the region when it fired the X5, so we don't really have any imagery of what the magnetic field configuration looked like at that point; presumably there was a much more prominent delta before that happened, at least that's typical (not always though), but as the regions fire flares the complexity tends to disappear, because the energy of the flares are released from the magnetic fields reorganizing themselves from less stable to more stable configurations, not really that different from the general principle behind explosives and other similar types of chain reactions. Could it do another X-flare? It's not impossible, but I don't think it's that likely at all as it stands now; and if it actually did I doubt it'd be stronger than the X5 one anyway. Good point, it was just on the limb when it let off that firework and from looking at past stronger flares, it seemed like the sunspots were larger and scarier in appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: due to shear? No, due to the region having a growing delta again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said: Just before this sunspot produced the X5 solar flare days ago it was doing this weird cycle of long duration C class flares. If the sunspot does this again it might mean another flare is coming. As of now there is a long duration C2 Flare coming from this sunspot. This is also something I had noticed. Along with the minor flaring in the 24 hours leading up to the X5, prominent looping structures began forming directly above the region, which I think was important for how large this CME really was, but also displayed how much energy was being built up. That was the luxury of the limb view. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: This is also something I had noticed. Along with the minor flaring in the 24 hours leading up to the X5, prominent looping structures began forming directly above the region, which I think was important for how large this CME really was, but also displayed how much energy was being built up. That was the luxury of the limb view. I remember the looping being the more impressive signs that something was going on, but I didn't notice how the C flares indicated a build up of energy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 28 minutes ago, mozy said: No, due to the region having a growing delta again. i dont get it? isnt that good? sorry if its a joke and i dont get it. Autism can be hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: i dont get it? isnt that good? sorry if its a joke and i dont get it. Autism can be hard it is good of course, new delta can give us some M-flares or even an X-one, but that’s unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, tniickck said: it is good of course, new delta can give us some M-flares or even an X-one, but that’s unlikely Why unlikely? It’s small I know. I always thought it depends on proximity and shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 33 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Why unlikely? It’s small I know. I always thought it depends on proximity and shear both umbras are really small and don’t seem to be able to give something except impulsive M-flares. maybe they will decay without any worth observation flares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay-B Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Hopefully we do get some more x-class flares!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEAurora Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'm with others here, I don't see much to indicate this is going to let off another big eruptive flare unless it undergoes some serious changes/growth... and it doesn't seem to be actively changing all that much or growing at all. Also, as others have said there was a clear low-frequency build up in the x-ray flux that persisted for nearly 22 hours before the X5. Since that flare and the M-flares immediately following, the flux has remained choppy, but largely hanging around the C/B threshold baseline. Also, doesn't look super active or ominous on SUVI, so I'd expect any flares-of-note to be impulsive and in the low M range at best...but hey, what do I know, the sun does what it wants. The one thing about this spot that does give me some hope is that this spot is magnetically odd with the north-south oriented dipole instead of east-west. So, maybe there is some hope that it will turn the corner and start to grow into something more exciting over the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, Lawn Boy said: Patrick has posted his theory on the new NASA prediction thread, and no one has responded.? wrong topic, dunno what patrick, his theories and nasa have to do with this region 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lawn Boy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nothing. I was just drawing attention to another idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Lawn Boy said: Nothing. I was just drawing attention to another idea. I think people that are interested are gonna look into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Guess it is up to the negative polarity umbra. Needs to start fighting back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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