SpaceWeather5464 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 M1. This sunspot is not done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 11 hours ago, tniickck said: it is actually decaying. it was classified as b-g-d because it rotated further so we can correctly identify it's complexity I also think the same but noaa did still give it 20% for an X but maybe because of its history? I compared sdo imagery and it does look to be less complex to me. I’d like to hear your guys opinions.:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: I also think the same but noaa did still give it 20% for an X but maybe because of its history? I compared sdo imagery and it does look to be less complex to me. I’d like to hear your guys opinions.:) Given its history and the weird vertical magnetic field it has, perhaps it's more complex than we think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Does anyone know why Proton is rising (again)? Is it due to the recenty occoured flares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 One thing to watch closely is that over the past 12 hours, the positive polarity penumbra has begun digging deeper into the negative penumbra. This may better define any potential delta signature on the north side of the group moving forward. https://ibb.co/cNwCYH0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Landon Moeller said: One thing to watch closely is that over the past 12 hours, the positive polarity penumbra has begun digging deeper into the negative penumbra. This may better define any potential delta signature on the north side of the group moving forward. https://ibb.co/cNwCYH0 It hasnt really, you cant only look at the Magnetograms. If you look at the Sunspots, the penumbras actually separated from each other. now: Earlier: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: It hasnt really, you cant only look at the Magnetograms. If you look at the Sunspots, the penumbras actually separated from each other. now: Earlier: What I’m saying is the polarities have come closer together. But the intensity of the penumbra has certainly become less, specifically the positive penumbra 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: What I’m saying is the polarities have come closer together. But the intensity of the penumbra has certainly become less, specifically the positive penumbra i dont understand noaas process of assigning flare probabilities. The region is distancing in penumbra thus resulting in less flares and shear, why did they put 25% for an X? 06:00UTC was 20%. And yeah, i get what youre saying. but i dont know if it really affects the flareability. would be cool to know though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: i dont understand noaas process of assigning flare probabilities. The region is distancing in penumbra thus resulting in less flares and shear, why did they put 25% for an X? 06:00UTC was 20%. I am not entirely sure, but I think it’s mainly based on history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 @MinYoongi. Unfortunately it seems as though you seem to be correct. Unless somehow you have the order of those two shots in reverse which is unlikely, I think. It has a few days to regenerate, however and it would be nice, of course to see another X this transit!! 14 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: i dont understand noaas process of assigning flare probabilities. The region is distancing in penumbra thus resulting in less flares and shear, why did they put 25% for an X? 06:00UTC was 20%. And yeah, i get what youre saying. but i dont know if it really affects the flareability. would be cool to know though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Solar flux is up which may also be notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said: Solar flux is up which may also be notable. Meh. Could also be attributed to new spots forming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 59 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: i dont understand noaas process of assigning flare probabilities. The region is distancing in penumbra thus resulting in less flares and shear, why did they put 25% for an X? 06:00UTC was 20%. And yeah, i get what youre saying. but i dont know if it really affects the flareability. would be cool to know though They always do this with every region and It's frustrating as heck, they need to start updating them way more often since regions change so fast, how It's being done now often leads up to "misinformation". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, mozy said: They always do this with every region and It's frustrating as heck, they need to start updating them way more often since regions change so fast, how It's being done now often leads up to "misinformation". it got updated twice today, but im still confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: it got updated twice today, but im still confused. Twice is not enough clearly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) Me too @MinYoongi. Don’t feel bad. Edited January 2 by hamateur 1953 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libmar96 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 That's typical. The X-flare probability when it occurs is usually 1%, then SW increases it to 10-40%, but the sunspot gets quiet forever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miles Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 looks to me as of 05Z there is a new delta structure between the two main poles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The X5 shock front has arrived at L1. Definitely a slow one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Didnt think geomagnetic conditions would be this quiet. I know it's a glancing blow, but the CME still came from an X5 flare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 hours ago, mozy said: They always do this with every region and It's frustrating as heck, they need to start updating them way more often since regions change so fast, how It's being done now often leads up to "misinformation". Updated again - kept the old probabilities and didn’t change them a millimeter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 hours ago, libmar96 said: That's typical. The X-flare probability when it occurs is usually 1%, then SW increases it to 10-40%, but the sunspot gets quiet forever there is a delta now X5 flare seems to have launched a big amount of charged particles into space and now they fly to earth by Parker's spiral so we are close to S1 storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 hours ago, tniickck said: there is a delta now May I ask where? I don’t see a new one but I’m a bit late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: May I ask where? I don’t see a new one but I’m a bit late Right in the middle here: Not a very clear umbral core for the positive part, but I'd say that definitely counts as a delta still; it's probably going to flare some more at some point, but at this point I expect it to just be impulsive as it keeps breaking apart. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Right in the middle here: Not a very clear umbral core for the positive part, but I'd say that definitely counts as a delta still; it's probably going to flare some more at some point, but at this point I expect it to just be impulsive as it keeps breaking apart. Thanks for the gif! Ah, why breaking apart? Is it decaying overall? I’m not updated haha can you maybe shoot me the link for the gifs again by the way? I got a new Desktop and did not import my bookmarks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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