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AR 3536


Solar_Marcel
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3 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said:

Is AR3536 the same region as the old AR3514 that produced the X2.86 flare on Dec-14?

I was under that impression, and checking the archive it seems like a good match both spatially and temporally. It's most certainly from the same underlying part of the field, from looking at the synoptic charts I believe it's around this region:

synoptics.png

2 minutes ago, Sammyy said:

Hoping for more X5+in the coming days :D 

In all of SC24 there were only five flares that were stronger than this one, so somehow I doubt it'll be that regular, but I agree, I'd also like to see more of this for sure. SC25 is stronger than SC24 by most measures anyway, for comparison there were ~30 flares as strong or stronger than this one in SC23.

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12 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

It is a very fast CME, but we are going to be right on the edge of it taking a glancing blow. The imagery is starting to come in

What do you think KP wise?

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18 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

What do you think KP wise?

I'll see if I need to change this, but I'll go with an arrival forecast late after noon on the 2nd to early on the 3rd. I'd go with G3 possibly on the early end and G2 possible on the later end.

And time is in UTC.

Edited by Jesterface23
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30 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

I'll see if I need to change this, but I'll go with an arrival forecast late after noon on the 2nd to early on the 3rd. I'd go with G3 possibly on the early end and G2 possible on the later end.

And time is in UTC.

 

31 minutes ago, tniickck said:

not more than Kp5, likely to be Kp4 

Well those are two very different answers..😳😅

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8 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

 

Well those are two very different answers..😳😅

Await LASCO and official predictions before making any assumptions. Location of the flare was on the limb even if the CME is wide, Parker spiral is against us. You never know but the likelihood is pretty low for me…

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11 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Location of the flare was on the limb even if the CME is wide, Parker spiral is against us.

There may be a CIR, but no large CH HSSs between us and the CME. We have been hit by CMEs from over the eastern limb in the past

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unlikely to impact Earth.

At least there's a chance lol. Being honest though, there is no way I can shift the numbers in my method to get a travel time even close to 60 hours. The IMF may be questionable, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a velocity shock of 700km/s.

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1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

unlikely to impact Earth.

At least there's a chance lol. Being honest though, there is no way I can shift the numbers in my method to get a travel time even close to 60 hours. The IMF may be questionable, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a velocity shock of 700km/s.

NASA JUST ran the CME from the X flare. This may just be based on the shock though, and may not be entirely accurate. But I do believe the earth directed component

 https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa_data_tree/model/heliosphere/wsa-enlil-cone/animation-cme-velocity-earth/2023/12/20231231_231700_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-vel.gif

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6 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

NASA JUST ran the CME from the X flare. This may just be based on the shock though, and may not be entirely accurate. But I do believe the earth directed component

 https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa_data_tree/model/heliosphere/wsa-enlil-cone/animation-cme-velocity-earth/2023/12/20231231_231700_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-vel.gif

Yeah, I think they are just working with what that model can handle. The tip of the CME might have been able to reach 1AU within 24 hours of launch.

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6 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

NASA JUST ran the CME from the X flare. This may just be based on the shock though, and may not be entirely accurate. But I do believe the earth directed component

 https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa_data_tree/model/heliosphere/wsa-enlil-cone/animation-cme-velocity-earth/2023/12/20231231_231700_2.0_afwa_anim.tim-vel.gif

Lol. This is the first time I’ve ever seen KP 10 show up at the top of the scale on the model. This is clearly an overestimation of the Earth directed component which is moving much slower than the bulk

https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa_data_tree/model/heliosphere/wsa-enlil-cone/KP/2023/12/20231231_231700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif

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4 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

Lol. This is the first time I’ve ever seen KP 10 show up at the top of the scale on the model. This is clearly an overestimation of the Earth directed component which is moving much slower than the bulk

https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa_data_tree/model/heliosphere/wsa-enlil-cone/KP/2023/12/20231231_231700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif

Heh, they are preparing for hopefully what can happen in a few days (Region rotating more westward)

Edited by Jesterface23
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If you only look at the right half of the coronagraph for this event, there's not much there.  A glancing blow seems most likely.  This region has shown persistence, and as it traverses across the equator, on about January 5-6, it will be pointed almost directly at Earth.  Good time to stock up on popcorn.

Edited by Drax Spacex
extra butter or kettle corn?
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2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Heh, they are preparing for hopefully what can happen in a few days (Region rotating more westward)

Hopefully it doesn't decay as it moves into view, though knowing our luck with some sunspots...

Though as much as I want an exciting solar flare, this region is a bit concerning to me just because it seems like it has enough power to cause a flare that may be worse than the Carrington event

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40 minuten geleden, Fishaxolotl zei:

this region is a bit concerning to me just because it seems like it has enough power to cause a flare that may be worse than the Carrington event

There is a big difference in size of origin of the sunspot region and thus less magnetic complexity to produce a super X-class flare. This is just a normal sized region with likely a magnetic delta structure that can produce M-class flares and an isolated X-class like there will be more in a typical solar cycle. 

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2 minuten geleden, Fishaxolotl zei:

Despite my concern though, I was hoping for more X flares as Ive been wanting to get shots of the aurora borealis for a while 

We’re nearing solar max so more X-class events ahead this year 😉 hopefully with plenty of Aurora chances. 

3 minuten geleden, Fishaxolotl zei:

Ah I see, thanks and sorry about that.

take a look in the archive to compare the region of the Halloween storms in 2003 with this one today. Big difference ;)

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