MinYoongi Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said: Nasa did a weird model run but I think it’s the shock run. 4 hours ago, Landon Moeller said: Lol. This is the first time I’ve ever seen KP 10 show up at the top of the scale on the model. This is clearly an overestimation of the Earth directed component which is moving much slower than the bulk https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa_data_tree/model/heliosphere/wsa-enlil-cone/KP/2023/12/20231231_231700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Ah, did they model it all to be the same speed? I’m confused with this run and kp estimate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The region keeps going; this is definitely one of the most productive regions we've seen in a while already. It's interesting that it doesn't look that complex yet, but there's still not a very clear view of it; it does look to be a bit weirdly oriented though, and maybe there are still some spots beyond the limb that we don't see yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Another Mid M class flare 6 minutes ago, Philalethes said: The region keeps going; this is definitely one of the most productive regions we've seen in a while already. It's interesting that it doesn't look that complex yet, but there's still not a very clear view of it; it does look to be a bit weirdly oriented though, and maybe there are still some spots beyond the limb that we don't see yet. Yeah I wondered about that also. I do believe this is due to the limb proximity resulting in the magnetic maps not lining up perfectly or something. Sadly can’t tell for sure when that’s not the case anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, Philalethes said: The region keeps going; this is definitely one of the most productive regions we've seen in a while already. It's interesting that it doesn't look that complex yet, but there's still not a very clear view of it; it does look to be a bit weirdly oriented though, and maybe there are still some spots beyond the limb that we don't see yet. Agreed @Philalethes I was just looking at stonyhurst projections and it is hot all along latitudes until 30 degrees at least presently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 „The partial-halo signature is currently being analyzed and modeled to determine the trajectory and timing of any Earth-directed component.„ from noaas forecast discussion. I’m just confused about nasas model and kp prediction but I think it’s just a model / overcast.. I think @Marcel de Bont earlier posted likely no earth effects and @Jesterface23 agreed to a glancing encounter. I tend to agree that we will see a shock arrive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 25 minutes ago, Philalethes said: The region keeps going; this is definitely one of the most productive regions we've seen in a while already. It's interesting that it doesn't look that complex yet, but there's still not a very clear view of it; it does look to be a bit weirdly oriented though, and maybe there are still some spots beyond the limb that we don't see yet. Yes in addition to the delta magnetic configuration, the diagonal north/south orientation of group does seem to be contributing to its activity. That's where we see the flare connections occurring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 42 minutes ago, Philalethes said: The region keeps going; this is definitely one of the most productive regions we've seen in a while already. It's interesting that it doesn't look that complex yet, but there's still not a very clear view of it; it does look to be a bit weirdly oriented though, and maybe there are still some spots beyond the limb that we don't see yet. M flare now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 13 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: Yes in addition to the delta magnetic configuration, the diagonal north/south orientation of group does seem to be contributing to its activity. That's where we see the flare connections occurring. Ah, so the delta is in the northern portion of the region? (I’m not at home and sadly can’t post a picture ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 53 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: Yes in addition to the delta magnetic configuration, the diagonal north/south orientation of group does seem to be contributing to its activity. That's where we see the flare connections occurring. Also looks to be possibly some small new development in the past 12 hours in the leader portion of 3536. https://ibb.co/0f1F7mQ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 There may be several deltas, perhaps small south and large north. The first post in this thread shows well the general north/south orientation of flare connections. There are also sigmoid structures, further characterizing the region's complexity: https://ibb.co/dJ5zgVk https://ibb.co/pXrJw8p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 A better side view of the eastern spots this afternoon as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 46 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: A better side view of the eastern spots this afternoon as well. Really unusual AR. Definitely and sure correlates with the unusual Stonyhurst zero to twenty five n latitude spread I have been watching develop over last two days. Off topic a bit but weren’t you @Jesterface23 and @3gMike theorising about certain latitudes being more active in general than others a while ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Really unusual AR. Definitely and sure correlates with the unusual Stonyhurst zero to twenty five n latitude spread I have been watching develop over last two days. Off topic a bit but weren’t you @Jesterface23 and @3gMike theorising about certain latitudes being more active in general than others a while ago? What’s a stoneyhurst 0-25 ? I’m sorry it’s the first time hearing the term 🙈 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Off topic a bit but weren’t you @Jesterface23 and @3gMike theorising about certain latitudes being more active in general than others a while ago? Either I wasn't one of them or part of my memory went on a vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: What’s a stoneyhurst 0-25 ? I’m sorry it’s the first time hearing the term 🙈 The Stonyhurst heliographic coordinate system is just the same coordinate system being used here on the site for spots, where 0° of longitude is placed at the central meridian of the visible disc at any given point in time, so spots will change from 90E down to 0 and then to 90W as they move along from one limb to the other. In contrast the Carrington heliographic coordinate system has fixed longitudes, i.e. the region as shown in the synoptic map I posted on one of the previous pages is near ~140-150° of longitude in that system regardless of where it is on the visible disc, as the entire coordinate system rotates along with the Carrington rotations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chronical Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 NASA’s newest run predicts a minor glancing blow, makes more sense than the past one https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 14 minutes ago, chronical said: NASA’s newest run predicts a minor glancing blow, makes more sense than the past one https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 Now that looks a lot closer on what to expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Well, guess I thought I was fully awake. Ha ha obviously I intended to type longitudes. But oh well. I called Stonyhurst a “ Green Screen” last time to everyones dismay. I’m getting my coffee first BEFORE posting next time… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The SWPC is going very early with the CME arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The SWPC is going very early with the CME arrival. Yeah, Nasa goes with 2nd 18utc did noa give a Kp estimation as well? as usual, nasa and noaa differ in models.. usually nasa‘s runs are the ones with faster arrivals 😃 funny I wonder why the run is from 10UTC though and they did not mention it in their forecast @Jesterface23. Was it published around 10UTC already ? Or only recently ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: did noa give a Kp estimation as well? None yet. Unless they re-run, my best guess is they will probably issue a G3 watch. G4 might be pushing it a bit too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 16 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: None yet. Unless they re-run, my best guess is they will probably issue a G3 watch. G4 might be pushing it a bit too far. Mh, okay. So multiple runs by Nasa and others suggest Kp4-5 with a shock arrival, but for some reason as @Landon Moeller pointed out on his Twitter, Noaa modelled the fastest portion of the CME to be earth directed which is not supported by Coronagraph imagery. (I cant verify this, i suck at lasco) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chronical Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 37 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Mh, okay. So multiple runs by Nasa and others suggest Kp4-5 with a shock arrival, but for some reason as @Landon Moeller pointed out on his Twitter, Noaa modelled the fastest portion of the CME to be earth directed which is not supported by Coronagraph imagery. (I cant verify this, i suck at lasco Yeah, looking at coronagraph imagery, he is right. The part of the CME directed towards us is slower than the rest that will go east. Unless there is something very subtle that I can’t see, NOAA is wrong with their run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 the same thing was with X2.8 cme. the shock and the main CME were both modeled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, tniickck said: the same thing was with X2.8 cme. the shock and the main CME were both modeled yeah by nasa but not by noaa as far as i know, hence the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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