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AR 3536


Solar_Marcel
Go to solution Solved by Calder,

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5 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

There may be several deltas, perhaps small south and large north.  The first post in this thread shows well the general north/south orientation of flare connections.  There are also sigmoid structures, further characterizing the region's complexity:

https://ibb.co/dJ5zgVk
https://ibb.co/pXrJw8p

Screenshot2024-01-01200422.jpg.d3669c86512e96857641a634439ffd70.jpg

Found this picture which shows the loops pretty well i think. Also above our region at a higher latitude there is some other bright loops, could this be another region? 
AR 3536 sure looks very interesting, and it just keeps going with some M flares already today. I wish for an earth directed X flare. Last time i said that we got X5.01. Maybe the sun will grant my wishes again, lol

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Solar_Marcel said:

Screenshot2024-01-01200422.jpg.d3669c86512e96857641a634439ffd70.jpg

Found this picture which shows the loops pretty well i think. Also above our region at a higher latitude there is some other bright loops, could this be another region? 
AR 3536 sure looks very interesting, and it just keeps going with some M flares already today. I wish for an earth directed X flare. Last time i said that we got X5.01. Maybe the sun will grant my wishes again, lol

Screenshot2024-01-01203011.jpg.2109bdc5a972b8b7debe98299c75ddf5.jpg

Quickly made this picture, which i think shows the shier magnetic complexity of this turning in region. I hope we´ll get more fireworks from this and coming in regions. Wound be very nice to see this!

Edit: Also 10,7cm Solar Radio Flux rised by 6 today. if it keeps rising we will be in on maybe more of these kind of regions to welcome us with strong C, M or X flares, haha.

image.png.d83b56d3f787b59c8782c6041a937cd1.png

Faside map also looks promising with one region just behind the limb there which also could be a banger region, but lets not get the hopes high because well, often then came disappointments :(

Edited by Solar_Marcel
Edited stuff + infos were added
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7 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

The CME likely would have passed 1AU at this point. It is now to see how much of a glancing blow we will get.

1AU is where Dscovr etc are?

Sorry I’m a bit dense today. Do you mean the main CME would’ve hit now and depending on how much longer until our impact will show how much of a glancing blow?

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1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

1AU is where Dscovr etc are?

Sorry I’m a bit dense today. Do you mean the main CME would’ve hit now and depending on how much longer until our impact will show how much of a glancing blow?

The tip of the CME should have reached 1AU maybe 70-80 degrees to our east by now. I'm sticking with an L1 arrival somewhere between the late afternoon on the 2nd to early on the 3rd UTC.

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Just now, MinYoongi said:

While I don’t understand NOAAs model they put out a post on Twitter with G1 warning

NOAA are ALWAYS extremely pessimistic in terms of KP index and time of arrival 

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11 minutes ago, tniickck said:

NOAA are ALWAYS extremely pessimistic in terms of KP index and time of arrival 

They are actually the only ones predicting such an early arrival if you compare with net space weather office, nasa, etc

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12 minutes ago, tniickck said:

i will stay awake until the morning. we have clear sky first time since the beginning of December

I'll also stay awake tonight, but chances are it will hit during daytime here if NASA is correct or before sunrise if NOAA is correct (NOAA is never correct so I don't expect much lol)

 

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15 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said:

Seems like the region is growing a lot and becoming more complex, what with it now being classified as beta gamma delta so we may get some fireworks soon

it is actually decaying. it was classified as b-g-d because it rotated further so we can correctly identify it's complexity

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31 minutes ago, tniickck said:

it is actually decaying. it was classified as b-g-d because it rotated further so we can correctly identify it's complexity

@tniickckmay be correct. Background flux is dropping even with a new AR arriving.  

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3 hours ago, tniickck said:

it is actually decaying. it was classified as b-g-d because it rotated further so we can correctly identify it's complexity

I also think the same but noaa did still give it 20% for an X but maybe because of its history? I compared sdo imagery and it does look to be less complex to me. I’d like to hear your guys opinions ☺️

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There are two decent sized opposite polarity spots that are possibly a delta. They haven't been moving apart from each other at all. Pretty much the only best next thing is if the two umbra were right up next to each other.

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