Solar_Marcel Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 5 hours ago, Drax Spacex said: There may be several deltas, perhaps small south and large north. The first post in this thread shows well the general north/south orientation of flare connections. There are also sigmoid structures, further characterizing the region's complexity: https://ibb.co/dJ5zgVk https://ibb.co/pXrJw8p Found this picture which shows the loops pretty well i think. Also above our region at a higher latitude there is some other bright loops, could this be another region? AR 3536 sure looks very interesting, and it just keeps going with some M flares already today. I wish for an earth directed X flare. Last time i said that we got X5.01. Maybe the sun will grant my wishes again, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minuten geleden, Solar_Marcel zei: Also above our region at a higher latitude there is some other bright loops, could this be another region? Mostly faculae with few minor spots above it seems so hopefully more spot development from that grave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I predict another X flare in the coming days this sunspot is well-performing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Solar_Marcel said: Found this picture which shows the loops pretty well i think. Also above our region at a higher latitude there is some other bright loops, could this be another region? AR 3536 sure looks very interesting, and it just keeps going with some M flares already today. I wish for an earth directed X flare. Last time i said that we got X5.01. Maybe the sun will grant my wishes again, lol Quickly made this picture, which i think shows the shier magnetic complexity of this turning in region. I hope we´ll get more fireworks from this and coming in regions. Wound be very nice to see this! Edit: Also 10,7cm Solar Radio Flux rised by 6 today. if it keeps rising we will be in on maybe more of these kind of regions to welcome us with strong C, M or X flares, haha. Faside map also looks promising with one region just behind the limb there which also could be a banger region, but lets not get the hopes high because well, often then came disappointments Edited January 1 by Solar_Marcel Edited stuff + infos were added 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The CME likely would have passed 1AU at this point. It is now to see how much of a glancing blow we will get. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The CME likely would have passed 1AU at this point. It is now to see how much of a glancing blow we will get. 1AU is where Dscovr etc are? Sorry I’m a bit dense today. Do you mean the main CME would’ve hit now and depending on how much longer until our impact will show how much of a glancing blow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: 1AU is where Dscovr etc are? Sorry I’m a bit dense today. Do you mean the main CME would’ve hit now and depending on how much longer until our impact will show how much of a glancing blow? The tip of the CME should have reached 1AU maybe 70-80 degrees to our east by now. I'm sticking with an L1 arrival somewhere between the late afternoon on the 2nd to early on the 3rd UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tormentius Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Here’s what Tamitha Skov had to say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 i will stay awake until the morning. we have clear sky first time since the beginning of December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, Tormentius said: Here’s what Tamitha Skov had to say While I don’t understand NOAAs model they put out a post on Twitter with G1 warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, MinYoongi said: While I don’t understand NOAAs model they put out a post on Twitter with G1 warning NOAA are ALWAYS extremely pessimistic in terms of KP index and time of arrival Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 11 minutes ago, tniickck said: NOAA are ALWAYS extremely pessimistic in terms of KP index and time of arrival They are actually the only ones predicting such an early arrival if you compare with net space weather office, nasa, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chronical Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12 minutes ago, tniickck said: i will stay awake until the morning. we have clear sky first time since the beginning of December I'll also stay awake tonight, but chances are it will hit during daytime here if NASA is correct or before sunrise if NOAA is correct (NOAA is never correct so I don't expect much lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Protons are rising something is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, SpaceWeather5464 said: Protons are rising something is coming. yeah there is a shock (i guess) on EPAM, we need @Jesterface23 opinion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, tniickck said: yeah there is a shock (i guess) on EPAM, we need @Jesterface23 opinion ACE's EPAM is just a bad data spike as we started receiving the data again. The GOES proton rise looks to be during a minor solar wind transition and may continue to rise. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Seems like the region is growing a lot and becoming more complex, what with it now being classified as beta gamma delta so we may get some fireworks soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said: Seems like the region is growing a lot and becoming more complex, what with it now being classified as beta gamma delta so we may get some fireworks soon it is actually decaying. it was classified as b-g-d because it rotated further so we can correctly identify it's complexity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 31 minutes ago, tniickck said: it is actually decaying. it was classified as b-g-d because it rotated further so we can correctly identify it's complexity @tniickckmay be correct. Background flux is dropping even with a new AR arriving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: @tniickckmay be correct. Background flux is dropping even with a new AR arriving. Yes sadly 10,7cm Solar Radio Flux has gone down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 hours ago, tniickck said: it is actually decaying. it was classified as b-g-d because it rotated further so we can correctly identify it's complexity I also think the same but noaa did still give it 20% for an X but maybe because of its history? I compared sdo imagery and it does look to be less complex to me. I’d like to hear your guys opinions ☺️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 30 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I also think the same but noaa did still give it 20% for an X but maybe because of its history? ☺️ it is always like this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 There are two decent sized opposite polarity spots that are possibly a delta. They haven't been moving apart from each other at all. Pretty much the only best next thing is if the two umbra were right up next to each other. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Philalethes Posted January 2 Popular Post Share Posted January 2 20 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: There are two decent sized opposite polarity spots that are possibly a delta. They haven't been moving apart from each other at all. Pretty much the only best next thing is if the two umbra were right up next to each other. Yeah, I think there's definitely still some complexity here that might not be readily apparent. Whether or not it's a delta is a good question, as the boundary where the penumbrae meet isn't that large and has a fair amount of separation, but I suppose one could make the case, and two significant umbrae that close is a good sign regardless. There's also the matter of the orientation; it's not quite reversed, but the north-south orientation does stand out, and is probably due to the same underlying complexity that is keeping the umbrae together. I would probably not keep my hopes up for more X-flares, but I'd be quite disappointed if it didn't produce at least some more M-flares, maybe something eruptive too closer to an Earth-facing position if we're lucky. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Atleast we got something again 😎 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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