tniickck Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, Aten said: You can have cycles with no X10's, but it is also possible for a single sunspot group to produce several X10 flares. In June 1991 NOAA 6659 fired off six X10+ flares over 15 days. I hope we get a spot like that this cycle 😎 remember 0486 in 2003 and 2673 in 2017(fired two X10+) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Solen Said this region has a delta (as of 4UTC) and noaa calls the region beta gamma. What’s the right answer right now? I’d say I can see the delta from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 31 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Solen Said this region has a delta (as of 4UTC) and noaa calls the region beta gamma. What’s the right answer right now? I’d say I can see the delta from yesterday. Questionable if you ask me, but maybe it's because they're looking at high-resolution imagery (Solen, that is). The delta from yesterday has all but dissolved at this point, can barely make out the remnants of the positive umbrae there, and there's noticeable separation between the opposite polarities too. This one looks dead for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay-B Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Any word if the M 3.8 released a flux rope? When will we know the predicted kp associated with this flare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Jay-B said: Any word if the M 3.8 released a flux rope? When will we know the predicted kp associated with this flare? You can check out LASCO here and try to spot anything that fits the timing. There was one farside eruption right before it that I think @Jesterface23 mentioned in passing, but I think I can make out a smaller eruption right afterwards that could have been from this one, albeit nothing that looks aimed at Earth. Can't say for sure if it was really from this one either, but you can try to track this loop in the coronagrams: Even if it is from that flare it's small and weak and in the wrong direction, so it won't affect Earth in any way (unless I'm blind and completely missing something). People generally will only predict geomagnetic activity when there's a realistic chance for an eruption to hit us in some way, so I doubt you'll see any predictions for this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 (edited) 1 hour ago, Philalethes said: You can check out LASCO here and try to spot anything that fits the timing. There was one farside eruption right before it that I think @Jesterface23 mentioned in passing, but I think I can make out a smaller eruption right afterwards that could have been from this one, albeit nothing that looks aimed at Earth. Can't say for sure if it was really from this one either, but you can try to track this loop in the coronagrams: Even if it is from that flare it's small and weak and in the wrong direction, so it won't affect Earth in any way (unless I'm blind and completely missing something). People generally will only predict geomagnetic activity when there's a realistic chance for an eruption to hit us in some way, so I doubt you'll see any predictions for this one. I think that what you marked in the photo comes from 4UTC from the edge of the eastern limb https://gyazo.com/d36af0bdc8c5e5d69586610b1ec70527 Edited January 4 by Adrian Kobyłecki 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 AR3536 just released another narrow spray of plasma (streamer) starting at 20230104 17:46 UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: AR3536 just released another narrow spray of plasma (streamer) starting at 20230104 17:46 UTC. In what Angstrom can i see this? 3 hours ago, Philalethes said: Questionable if you ask me, but maybe it's because they're looking at high-resolution imagery (Solen, that is). The delta from yesterday has all but dissolved at this point, can barely make out the remnants of the positive umbrae there, and there's noticeable separation between the opposite polarities too. This one looks dead for now. hm, i thought this here is the delta? Or is it gamma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: In what Angstrom can i see this? hm, i thought this here is the delta? Or is it gamma? I wouldn't call that a delta, since the only remnants of positive umbra that are near the only negative core left have virtually disappeared, only a tiny positive umbra is still there in the top left inside the circle, but that's visibly separated from the rest. It's also all so small at this point that it's not much to look at anyway. Still pretty sure this is more or less dead for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This region probably won't produce an Earth-directed CME or another X class flare and will die off soon.  1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 38 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: In what Angstrom can i see this? 304 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 (edited) LASCO coronographs show this streamer CME (assuming it's not a coincidental far-side event): https://ibb.co/ZcKLGsJ The eruption didn't appear to be in a perpendicular direction relative to the Sun's surface, and it is probably a miss to the southeast.  Still, it may be considered for modeling. At N07E27 currently, AR3536 is getting closer to being Earth-facing.  A similar narrow eruption over the next few days would have a decent chance of being Earth-directed. Edited January 4 by Drax Spacex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 14 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: LASCO coronographs show this streamer CME (assuming it's not a coincidental far-side event): https://ibb.co/ZcKLGsJ it is probably a miss to the southeast.  Still, it may be considered for modeling. At N07E27 currently, AR3536 is getting closer to being Earth-facing. A similar narrow eruption over the next few days would have a decent chance of being Earth-directed. I have checked the latest images and yes that looks to be from 3536 as it looks like the time in Å 304 and LASCO C3 match up. The images aren't complete yet but I would guess it's not earth directed. At least it does seem like it has some plasma left. Hopefully there will be a bigger eruption in the coming days but it does seem like the region is slowly decaying. I haven't lined up the latest HMI images though so I will do that soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 23 minutes ago, arjemma said: I have checked the latest images and yes that looks to be from 3536 as it looks like the time in Ã… 304 and LASCO C3 match up. The images aren't complete yet but I would guess it's not earth directed. At least it does seem like it has some plasma left. Hopefully there will be a bigger eruption in the coming days but it does seem like the region is slowly decaying. I haven't lined up the latest HMI images though so I will do that soon. stoked for the results. i think it gained a liiiil bit but not really worth talking about (my opinion) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, MinYoongi said: i think it gained a liiiil bit but not really worth talking about (my opinion) Yup but like you said, nothing worth talking about YET atleast 😎 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, mozy said: Yup but like you said, nothing worth talking about YET atleast 😎 is there a good chance/ tendency?  i dont know if its still "dying" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: is there a good chance/ tendency? Â i dont know if its still "dying"Â My expectations are low as it looks right now unless it starts rapidly growing out of nowhere, in Its current state it barely changes, can look a little better one hour only to look worse again the next, nothing worth keeping an eye on atm, but ofc it's still capable of flaring since it has that north-south orientation rather than west-east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Small eruption going on, sending out some kind of CME 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 21 minutes ago, mozy said: Small eruption going on, sending out some kind of CME Weird eruption. Small indeed though, but looks like there's some very slight dimming in the 195 Ã… imagery as it launches, so maybe we might get something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 4 hours ago, arjemma said: I have checked the latest images and yes that looks to be from 3536 as it looks like the time in Å 304 and LASCO C3 match up. The images aren't complete yet but I would guess it's not earth directed. At least it does seem like it has some plasma left. Hopefully there will be a bigger eruption in the coming days but it does seem like the region is slowly decaying. I haven't lined up the latest HMI images though so I will do that soon.  1 hour ago, Philalethes said: Weird eruption. Small indeed though, but looks like there's some very slight dimming in the 195 Å imagery as it launches, so maybe we might get something. There's a flaring region just behind the east limb, possibly returning region 3532 at S15, which may overlap along the same radial direction as the sputtering CME eruptions from 3536. This could make it tricky to identify the source of what we see in LASCO imagery. Shouldn't we have a rotatable 3D coronagraph somewhere? I know, that's data that STEREO A can sometimes provide, but not in its current position. Edited January 5 by Drax Spacex answering my own petulant question 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 There is certainly a weak coronal wave that was expelled from 3536. Looks interesting, but I would be inclined to believe most passes east of the Sun-Earth line. Guess we will see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: There is certainly a weak coronal wave that was expelled from 3536. Looks interesting, but I would be inclined to believe most passes east of the Sun-Earth line. Guess we will see Isn't it earth facing now though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said: Isn't it earth facing now though? It is earth-facing in a general sense, but still east of the center disk. Longitudinally, the CME was shot straight off with respect to the region. The bulk of the CME was seen leaving mainly south of the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 How’s magnetic complexity right now? Can’t properly check on mobile but I think red n blue are touching right now. Or still not worth talking about again? @Philalethes @arjemma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miles Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/3/2024 at 10:26 AM, MinYoongi said: 36 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: How’s magnetic complexity right now? Can’t properly check on mobile but I think red n blue are touching right now. Or still not worth talking about again? @Philalethes @arjemma It honestly to me looks better than yesterday complexity wise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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