3gMike Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 2 hours ago, tniickck said: these two look really big on farside map, especially on a solarham one It can sometimes be helpful to compare with other sources. The farside maps show an overall area of magnetic activity. In the image below you can compare the last available photospheric fields with the HMI image of the same area as it appears on the limb today. Hopefully you can also see that the farside map is covering multiple ARs which exist in the longitude range 270 to 360. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Not to overhype the activity north too much, but it looks like whatever launched that cme and delivered an M flare a few hours ago just did it again. So we might actually get some decent nearside action, especially if more than one AR is having fits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 there are 5 separated regions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 (edited) Five active regions? Ok. Edit: almost sounds too good to be true! Has to be NE given how blind we are at the limb. However I saw what appeared to be transequatorial flaring in the 131 ang 48 hour run earlier. Was pretty impressive Edited November 19, 2023 by hamateur 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 19, 2023 Author Share Posted November 19, 2023 2 hours ago, tniickck said: there are 5 separated regions where exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 21 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: where exactly? N10-N20 on the limb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 Impressive activity so far. Nice shot @tniickck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 looks pretty nice, at least two good-looking big sunspots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/3/2023 at 4:56 AM, Jesterface23 said: A bit of a stretched view with both regions of what we see so far where did you get this image? thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheebee Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 this one looks angry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 4 hours ago, tniickck said: where did you get this image? thanks in advance JHelioviewer Looks like a nice chaotic area. Just needs a bit of complexity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 59 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: JHelioviewer Looks like a nice chaotic area. Just needs a bit of complexity. Looks a bit spent to me, but maybe there'll be a round 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Looks a bit spent to me, but maybe there'll be a round 2. yep, there must be, but according to the rules of the 25th cycle, this will be on the farside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 (edited) For us radio amateurs ( hams ) I have some unexpected good news. I have been expecting SFI to rise naturally as it typically does. But certainly didn’t expect this sharp of a rise over such a short period. NRC posted 144.5 at days end. Making 150 tomorrow likely. Tamitha and others expected about 130 by Wednesday. We blew past that today easily. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect more good things from these regions as they rotate fully into view and cross our side. And we still have activity shown in the south. True, they have been quiet for the time being. But I remain optimistic. Edit: TCI has come up as a point of discussion as being a better overall measure of solar activity. I wouldn’t dispute this at all. In fact it might be nice to have it regularly posted if it was easily feasible. Just a thought. Edited November 20, 2023 by hamateur 1953 Afterthoughts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 9 hours ago, tniickck said: yep, there must be, but according to the rules of the 25th cycle, this will be on the farside Was assuming you were jesting there guy. It’s unfortunately accurate for the last few opportunities we have missed. Including a spectacular explosion on the east limb a few months ago which wasted the AR and left scrambled eggs in its wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 5 uren geleden, hamateur 1953 zei: For us radio amateurs ( hams ) I have some unexpected good news. I have been expecting SFI to rise naturally as it typically does. But certainly didn’t expect this sharp of a rise over such a short period. NRC posted 144.5 at days end. Making 150 tomorrow likely. Tamitha and others expected about 130 by Wednesday. We blew past that today easily. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect more good things from these regions as they rotate fully into view and cross our side. And we still have activity shown in the south. True, they have been quiet for the time being. But I remain optimistic. Edit: TCI has come up as a point of discussion as being a better overall measure of solar activity. I wouldn’t dispute this at all. In fact it might be nice to have it regularly posted if it was easily feasible. Just a thought. Mmmm…. There is a huge discrepancy between the solar flux and the sunspot number… even with the high resolution sunspots… don’t know what to make of it… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 7 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: TCI has come up as a point of discussion as being a better overall measure of solar activity. I wouldn’t dispute this at all. In fact it might be nice to have it regularly posted if it was easily feasible It is available on spaceweather.com 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 (edited) Solar flux rises and falls during all solar cycles @Patrick P.A. Geryl That can be said with certainty. Incidentally I noticed this seeming anomaly awhile back. SFI double the sunspot number. However no two cycles are identical, one time earlier this year we had twelve ARs on the board and SFI hardly budged. Btw . Looks like 3490 just dealt an m flare. Cool!! Edited November 21, 2023 by hamateur 1953 Update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 (edited) Exceeding all expectations SFI nearly hit 160 today with 156.5 ( 157) off a bit at days end. If I am to fully believe stonyhurst 195 there is still more to come in via the north corridor. Amazing to me. But cool! 18:00 utc. November 21 2023 SFI 170.2. Wow. Edited November 21, 2023 by hamateur 1953 Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 (edited) We could probably use @3gMikeon this topic if he is around. I haven’t got much sleep in the last two days. But would love his input on the reliability of Stonyhurst 195 as far as incoming. Because it sure looks good to me in both hemispheres still. Tnx. Mike/Hagrid. Guess I should say a bit more on this subject to clarify exactly what I mean. Assuming a large white area is visible on the stonyhurst diagram at roughly neg 60 degrees extending also to neg 90 degrees (east limb) would it be safe to assume good activity is still on our way? So to speak. Edited November 21, 2023 by hamateur 1953 Clarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 4 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: We could probably use @3gMikeon this topic if he is around. I haven’t got much sleep in the last two days. But would love his input on the reliability of Stonyhurst 195 as far as incoming. Because it sure looks good to me in both hemispheres still. Tnx. Mike/Hagrid. Guess I should say a bit more on this subject to clarify exactly what I mean. Assuming a large white area is visible on the stonyhurst diagram at roughly neg 60 degrees extending also to neg 90 degrees (east limb) would it be safe to assume good activity is still on our way? So to speak. Hi Mike - I was still in bed !! I tend not to use that data very much. As I see it all it does is stretch the image on the edge. Using WSO photospheric maps it looks like there is at least one more reasonably strong AR just approaching the limb, with several weaker ones following on in the Northern hemisphere. Just a note of caution - the jsoc farside image suggests that the region currently approaching the limb may not be as strong as the photospheric data (captured early Nov) suggests. In any case there does seem to be some interesting development in other regions, so I feel confident that we can look forward to further activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 33 minutes ago, 3gMike said: In any case there does seem to be some interesting development in other regions, so I feel confident that we can look forward to further activity. Yep, more spots coming in on the limb, and spots developing in other regions too. The current daily SN is estimated at 167 right now, sharp rise from just ~30 a few days ago. Of course there's no guarantee that these spurts will last or continue happening, but I suspect they will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 1 hour ago, 3gMike said: Hi Mike - I was still in bed !! I tend not to use that data very much. As I see it all it does is stretch the image on the edge. Using WSO photospheric maps it looks like there is at least one more reasonably strong AR just approaching the limb, with several weaker ones following on in the Northern hemisphere. Just a note of caution - the jsoc farside image suggests that the region currently approaching the limb may not be as strong as the photospheric data (captured early Nov) suggests. In any case there does seem to be some interesting development in other regions, so I feel confident that we can look forward to further activity. Sorry Mike!! I forget other people require sleep on occasion! Haha I need to check Greenwich time or whatever utc before assuming anything! With Newbie in Australia and y’all in England it can be disorienting at times Thanks for weighing in Heck its 4am here in freezing Seattle now and I’m thinking of the sun Not unreasonable given the circumstances!! Might as well stay up all night and sack out midday tomorrow And the stretching was precisely my main concern! Bravo 1 hour ago, Philalethes said: Yep, more spots coming in on the limb, and spots developing in other regions too. The current daily SN is estimated at 167 right now, sharp rise from just ~30 a few days ago. Of course there's no guarantee that these spurts will last or continue happening, but I suspect they will. Nothing but good news today!! About time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 Activity calmed down a bit (apart from the filaments), but there seems to be a few spots on the horizon, so we're not headed for spotless territory anytime soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 39 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Activity calmed down a bit (apart from the filaments), but there seems to be a few spots on the horizon, so we're not headed for spotless territory anytime soon. yeah, already 3 different groups 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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