SpaceWeather5464 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, tniickck said: Solar Orbiter today observed an X2.1 flare from the incoming region @Philalethes @Jesterface23 The incoming region looks like it is going to flare again. The sunspot has this bright loop sticking out that I have seen many times in the past before major flares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 First signs of the incoming region on the limb in the intensitygram now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Was just going to post on this. Presumably everyone is looking at south 15 or so. Has been flaring constantly more or less on solar soft. Pretty impressive. Plus we have a couple more somewhat less active but potential M candidates facin’ us now. cycle 25 is far from dead Patrick. Hang up your spurs and admit defeat before it happens and we will all be happier. Haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) 15 hours ago, SpaceWeather5464 said: The incoming region looks like it is going to flare again. The sunspot has this bright loop sticking out that I have seen many times in the past before major flares. looks interesting Edited February 3 by Solar_Marcel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 9 minutes ago, Solar_Marcel said: looks interesting The blue spot is a main one. there must be trailing red (I hope they are complex) spots left to it, so there might be reversed polarities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, tniickck said: The blue spot is a main one. there must be trailing red (I hope they are complex) spots left to it, so there might be reversed polarities Cool stuff. That other crazy AR 3571 just keeps spitting like Yosemite Sam without doing much anyway! Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) 17 minutes ago, tniickck said: The blue spot is a main one. there must be trailing red (I hope they are complex) spots left to it, so there might be reversed polarities How can you tell that the blue one is a "main" spot? It it because it appars bigger on the limb? Because there are some red spots that appear to be in front of the large blue spot... From looking at that picture, there seem to bee more things coming up further up the limb, as its bright there as well. Hopefully something with at least a little bit of compexity comes round' there, haha, and seems to be reasonably bis as well, so lets wait and see... (hopefully that is no plague urgh) As we call it, lets play the waiting game😂😅 Edited February 3 by Solar_Marcel Edited stuff + infos were added Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 9 minutes ago, Solar_Marcel said: How can you tell that the blue one is a "main" spot? It it because it appars bigger on the limb? Because there are some red spots that appear to be in front of the large blue spot... From looking at that picture, there seem to bee more things coming up further up the limb, as its bright there as well. Hopefully something with at least a little bit of compexity comes round' there, haha, and seems to be reasonably bis as well, so lets wait and see... (hopefully that is no plague urgh) As we call it, lets play the waiting game😂😅 There are no red umbras. The right and big spot is always the main one in groups where there is a classic construction of "main on the right, trailing left to it". Though we don’t know it yet, but this is likely to be true and i would of course want it to be a non-usual construction and complexity 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Got a little more over the limb now, looks very big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 minutes ago, Solar_Marcel said: Got a little more over the limb now, looks very big yeah. I have a lot of hopes for him 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, tniickck said: yeah. I have a lot of hopes for him is the region normal polarities or reversed? Btw, can we already be sure on the magnetogram? (i mean because the limb usually obscures it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Wow!! Check those loops kids!! Impressive!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (edited) 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: is the region normal polarities or reversed? it looks like reversed The confusing and promising thing at the same time is that I dont see red (I dont remember which polarity it is) umbras. i mean all visible umbras for now are blue. it means that most complex part of group is behind the limb and the region is really big and impressive @Philalethes @Jesterface23 do you have stretched limb maps already? i don’t remember who of you sends them Edited February 3 by tniickck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miles Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Has anyone noticed how eerily similar this spot 3576 looks to the big one in 2003? Almost the same latitude and spot layout 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, tniickck said: yeah. I have a lot of hopes for him don't say that, psst... otherwise it will decay again 🤐🤫 but i also feel like this could be some nice fireworks, looking at the loops, etc. on the various wavelenghts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, Miles said: Has anyone noticed how eerily similar this spot 3576 looks to the big one in 2003? Almost the same latitude and spot layout i had that thought too, but we don’t see it fully yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, tniickck said: it looks like reversed The confusing and promising thing at the same time is that I dont see red (I dont remember which polarity it is) umbras. i mean all visible umbras for now are blue. it means that most complex part of group is behind the limb and the region is really big and impressive @Philalethes @Jesterface23 do you have stretched limb maps already? i don’t remember who of you sends them Thanks for the in-depth answer. that really helped me figure it out Hm, i dont think it looks extremely large.. it looks big but not bigger than a few regions we had like 2 weeks ago or some from a few months ago? But maybe im wrong, i dont know really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Thanks for the in-depth answer. that really helped me figure it out Hm, i dont think it looks extremely large.. it looks big but not bigger than a few regions we had like 2 weeks ago or some from a few months ago? But maybe im wrong, i dont know really. The only bigger one could be 3514 and that’s all i also ran out of reactions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 13 minutes ago, tniickck said: The only bigger one could be 3514 and that’s all i also ran out of reactions i dont really think it looks that big? its even smaller than the region currently approaching the west limb? Or am i seeing a wrong region? it really doesnt look bigger than the one to the right ( 3575 ) so i dont really get how you are talking about it being one of the biggest this cycle? 17 minutes ago, tniickck said: i also ran out of reactions lol happens to me all the time XD i know the struggle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: really doesnt look bigger than the one to the right ( 3575 ) so i dont really get how you are talking about it being one of the biggest this cycle? well, i didn’t say about the cycle, just about the largest in a few months. also we dont see the main complex part of the region yet and the limb perspective makes it much smaller than a near-central region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: i dont really think it looks that big? its even smaller than the region currently approaching the west limb? Or am i seeing a wrong region? it really doesnt look bigger than the one to the right ( 3575 ) so i dont really get how you are talking about it being one of the biggest this cycle? lol happens to me all the time XD i know the struggle When you view a sphere whatever is on the "edge" of our line of sight is somewhat hidden. This causes what you do see to be distorted. To put it simply; it's similar to viewing a piece of paper on a flat surface and then trying to view the paper from the side. I hope that makes some sense haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 hours ago, Parabolic said: When you view a sphere whatever is on the "edge" of our line of sight is somewhat hidden. This causes what you do see to be distorted. To put it simply; it's similar to viewing a piece of paper on a flat surface and then trying to view the paper from the side. I hope that makes some sense haha Yep; here I've drawn a 5° x 5° square roughly by hand around the central part of each region, each tiny square being 0.5° in height and width: In other words, both those red squares I've drawn in there are the same area, which shows just how distorted it really is; if you were to consider just the 2D-projected area, the square on the right is over 3 times as large by my estimate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 If you’re thinking as I was of 10486, I agree. Let's hope it performs as well as 486 when it gets into a favourable position for launching a fast CME towards us! 13 hours ago, Miles said: Has anyone noticed how eerily similar this spot 3576 looks to the big one in 2003? Almost the same latitude and spot layout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 3 hours ago, Philalethes said: Yep; here I've drawn a 5° x 5° square roughly by hand around the central part of each region, each tiny square being 0.5° in height and width: In other words, both those red squares I've drawn in there are the same area, which shows just how distorted it really is; if you were to consider just the 2D-projected area, the square on the right is over 3 times as large by my estimate. Thanks! Awesome comparison - very easy to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 faside looks promising ngl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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