Jump to content

AR3615


Wolf star
Go to solution Solved by Davbit,

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Fishaxolotl said:

We had g5 storms in recent times?

We had G4 storms last year in March or April. I think it very briefly reached G5 but I don't remember if that was ever official.

We could talk further in the unspecified geomagnetic activity thread if you like 🙂

Edited by Parabolic
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

We had G4 storms last year in March or April. I think it very briefly reached G5 but I don't remember if that was ever official.

We could talk further in the unspecified geomagnetic activity thread if you like 🙂

It's ok, was just surprised because every time I google g5 storms, i only get articles about the Carrington event. 

 

Getting back on topic though, it'll be interesting to see if this region manages to produce a powerful enough earth facing CME

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In general, KP-index is always related to DST. The lower DST value, the higher KP is given. But still there are lots of uncertainities.

kp1_01.png

Three KP 9 moments in SC23 happened in 2000 (1x) and 2003 (2x). They had a lowest DST level between -300 and -400. This would give 9- in official values, but we know 9- is still somehow G4.

There's an exceptional aurora in November 2001. It had even more extreme Bz value than any storms above (up to -78.17), but the DST didn't reach -300. It stopped at -292.

Look that the DST in July 2000 reached -301. The November 2001 aurora had better Bz & wind speed when combined, but DST was almost the same. The aurora should have been better in 2001 than in 2000 actually. But it's too far ago to confirm, not the same technology for cameras as we have today.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mozy said:

It better be cooking up something bigger now with how quiet it has been the past few hours..

The background flux is not falling below C3 which is good. But the group begins to lose complexity apparently. Could this be the end?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

The background flux is not falling below C3 which is good. But the group begins to lose complexity apparently. Could this be the end?

I said earlier its losing complexity but others said its growing. whats real now :D 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

The background flux is not falling below C3 which is good. But the group begins to lose complexity apparently. Could this be the end?

The region is looking great still, it is definitely not done yet

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, mozy said:

The region is looking great still, it is definitely not done yet

thats out of question :) no doubt

i just want to know if its getting better or slowly decaying because looking at the mid (strongest) delta it looked more pushed together and bigger a few hours ago to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

thats out of question :) no doubt

i just want to know if its getting better or slowly decaying because looking at the mid (strongest) delta it looked more pushed together and bigger a few hours ago to me.

Yeah well the issue is that you're staring blankly at that one location, while it has gotten smaller, the area to the left of it has shown significant growth today & is looking spicy.

Deltas will decay & new ones will form, can't really call that the region is decaying until we see overall growth just completely halt. But to answer your question about the area you're talking about it does look worse than earlier yes

Edited by mozy
spelling
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

thats out of question :) no doubt

i just want to know if its getting better or slowly decaying because looking at the mid (strongest) delta it looked more pushed together and bigger a few hours ago to me.

Decay and losing complexity is not the same. The region is certainly not decaying but growing. A region can still grow and lose complexity at the same time. It's not decaying in any meaning of the word. The polarities are separating a bit so it's losing complexity but it's not decaying.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

Decay and losing complexity is not the same. The region is certainly not decaying but growing. A region can still grow and lose complexity at the same time. It's not decaying in any meaning of the word. The polarities are separating a bit so it's losing complexity but it's not decaying.

Thank you and @mozy for the good explanation :) I will look at it more dynamic from now on and not only focus on one thing.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi guys, I've been watching the discussion for about a month on here (since that x6), decided to make an account finally. This ar looks amazing, watching it balloon to bigger than Jupiter has been fun, hopefully it has some tricks left of it sleeve, of the x class w halo cme variety lol

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

Decay and losing complexity is not the same. The region is certainly not decaying but growing. A region can still grow and lose complexity at the same time. It's not decaying in any meaning of the word. The polarities are separating a bit so it's losing complexity but it's not decaying.

Good explanation. I'll also add that complex regions like this can go through growth and decay cycles fairly rapidly. Growth with some loss in complexity might give room for even greater complexity between the new and older penumbras with new flux emergence. But it is somewhat futile to measure this on a short time scale. I think that's why SWPC only takes measurements every 24 hours.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

The background flux is steadily creeping up... I think this may be an R4-capable AR.
image.thumb.png.f8fea5c8cc9cab70d7daa041f8318714.png

This is honestly beautiful.
image.thumb.png.3ad491e7edf0f0f6e6d7f88f3a4dae76.png

image.thumb.png.e8857c07f284859e5516ed2994662dba.png

 

What does R4 Capable mean?

15 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

The background flux is steadily creeping up... I think this may be an R4-capable AR.
image.thumb.png.f8fea5c8cc9cab70d7daa041f8318714.png

This is honestly beautiful.
image.thumb.png.3ad491e7edf0f0f6e6d7f88f3a4dae76.png

image.thumb.png.e8857c07f284859e5516ed2994662dba.png

 

I’m still unsure. I have pictures from 10h ago compared to now the blue in the trailing part has lost a lot of its intensity. I don’t want to talk against everyone but idk 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue. By using this site, you also agree to our Terms of Use and our Privacy Policy.