MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 hour ago, Sotiris Konstantis said: What do you think of the development of the region? It's gone quiet but that background flux is still holding above C2. The spots are shrinking, the deltas (to me) look very small with not much shear, as seen in less flaring and the lowest flux of the past 3 days i think. opinions welcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sotiris Konstantis Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: The spots are shrinking, the deltas (to me) look very small with not much shear, as seen in less flaring and the lowest flux of the past 3 days i think. opinions welcome Still it doesn't look that bad but compared to what it was yesterday it's definitely not there. Let's see how it develops as it's heading for the limb slowly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 hour ago, Sotiris Konstantis said: Still it doesn't look that bad but compared to what it was yesterday it's definitely not there. Let's see how it develops as it's heading for the limb slowly. 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: The spots are shrinking, the deltas (to me) look very small with not much shear, as seen in less flaring and the lowest flux of the past 3 days i think. opinions welcome These positive polarity spots have been slowly growing for the last 6 hours or so. I think the most eastern positive spot is still a delta as it shares the large negative spots penumbra. It definitely has consolidated it's leader spots a bit but I think it'll get active again relatively soon. It was initially pretty quiet for a few days. Also, the filament going through AR3614 is growing again so maybe we'll have a repeat similar to the 23rd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 8 minutes ago, Parabolic said: These positive polarity spots have been slowly growing for the last 6 hours or so. I think the most eastern positive spot is still a delta as it shares the large negative spots penumbra. It definitely has consolidated it's leader spots a bit but I think it'll get active again relatively soon. It was initially pretty quiet for a few days. Also, the filament going through AR3614 is growing again so maybe we'll have a repeat similar to the 23rd. Region is indeed starting to look a little better once again, time will tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 (edited) Very impulsive M4.4 flare from this small delta spot. Edit: 20 min after the flare This is how that delta looks after, completely killed itself with the flare. Edited March 25 by mozy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Well this region has a history of coming back from the dead. Hopefully it has the time to nail us. But I would agree, it doesn’t look good presently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 uur geleden, hamateur 1953 zei: Well this region has a history of coming back from the dead. Hopefully it has the time to nail us. But I would agree, it doesn’t look good presently. I could have predicted this (calculated) beforehand. However, since I am not allowed to publish them anymore… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: I could have predicted this (calculated) beforehand. However, since I am not allowed to publish them anymore… Sure you could've.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 5 minuten geleden, mozy zei: Sure you could've.. May I put them again in the unproven theories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 (edited) 14 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: May I put them again in the unproven theories? That is the appropriate location per our moderators If I am not mistaken. However, this caveat, If I may Patrick please refrain from remarks like “ I already gave everything “ etc. This may appear patronising at the very least to most. And should @3gMikereturn or @Jesterface23 pose a sensible rational question in UPT, do your best to interact with them in a civil manner. We are only fellow members here, none of us better or worse than the rest in my opinion. Mike Edit: I really enjoy looking at Jan Alvestad’s historical charts which provide a very clear record of SC data back until SC 19. You will have an extremely difficult time convincing me that you can predict anything other than the approximate length of a particular SC. Or a general maximum using accumulated data from the first 18 months or so. @libmar96 btw Hagrid will be coming along too. Haha For those people that are clueless on Who the heck Hagrid actually is, he is my companion presently @libmar96 did a hilarious meme in our spaceweather memes section Mike Edited March 26 by hamateur 1953 Caveats typos 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf star Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 6 hours ago, mozy said: Very impulsive M4.4 flare from this small delta spot. Edit: 20 min after the flare This is how that delta looks after, completely killed itself with the flare. I think delta is back again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 minutes ago, Wolf star said: I think delta is back again. Yup lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Sure looks like it!! 3 minutes ago, Wolf star said: I think delta is back again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf star Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 13 hours ago, MinYoongi said: The spots are shrinking, the deltas (to me) look very small with not much shear, as seen in less flaring and the lowest flux of the past 3 days i think. opinions welcome Yes, but we don't have anything better right now anyway. This area may not be dead yet. Don't forget it's getting close to the limb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 As if on cue even!! 😋 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf star Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 (edited) 6 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Sure looks like it!! I should have written "delta". Nothing much like that. But yeah. Edited March 25 by Wolf star 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 49 minutes ago, mozy said: Yup lol Tinier than before and a bit further away but it’s back 😲😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 I think the region is slowly "decaying", but by that I mean - the flaring activity, not the region itself. In my opinion, the region is just too open and there is limited compactness between sunspots, so "pressure" is building inside the region which would cause a major flare. This is just my opinion that I have based on previous experience observing sunspots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf star Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 3 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said: I think the region is slowly "decaying", but by that I mean - the flaring activity, not the region itself. In my opinion, the region is just too open and there is limited compactness between sunspots, so "pressure" is building inside the region which would cause a major flare. This is just my opinion that I have based on previous experience observing sunspots. It seems to me too. That it is developing again in the last hours. Mainly in marked areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Wolf star said: It seems to me too. That it is developing again in the last hours. Mainly in marked areas. Unfortunately the negative flux is struggling to form umbrae cores in those areas, not expecting much if they keep struggling like this. Edited March 25 by mozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf star Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 5 minutes ago, mozy said: Unfortunately the negative flux is struggling to form umbrae cores in those areas, not expecting much if they keep struggling like this. Probably yes. But it is better to live with the hope that something spectacular may come than with the hopelessness that nothing awaits us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 minute ago, Wolf star said: Probably yes. But it is better to live with the hope that something spectacular may come than with the hopelessness that nothing awaits us. I mean it better come now then or It's too late for an earth directed one soon 😎 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 53 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said: I think the region is slowly "decaying", but by that I mean - the flaring activity, not the region itself. In my opinion, the region is just too open and there is limited compactness between sunspots, so "pressure" is building inside the region which would cause a major flare. This is just my opinion that I have based on previous experience observing sunspots. So you think pressure in the region is building? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Just now, MinYoongi said: So you think pressure in the region is building? Oh, I apologize I meant it is not building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 If this thing discharges a non-earth directed CME we will have to ask @Adohran to make another one of those hilarious memes! Haha. Boo hoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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