AndrewB Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) I think the S3 level is inevitable. As AR3615 activity is prolonged like today, protons grow more and more. Edited March 23 by AndrewB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhereingtonEvent Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 14 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said: My personal bet would be X10+ within 36 hours. It is getting even more complex and the background flux is stable over M almost at all times. I haven't seen this since 2017. From an upper C - low M baseline it can easily shoot to X class multiple times in the hours ahead. Of course there's the chance it will get less complex or never reach X class but as of now I don't have any reason to believe it won't. Carringtons sunspots group was 9 -14% the solar disks width. This one seems to be in that range. Not to suggest that this is a one in a thousand year sunspot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manu Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Have you ever witnessed this sort of plateau effect (purple arrows in chart below)? I only remember that for X20+ flares (I thought it was the instruments saturating? obviously not the case here) Do you know where it comes from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 4 minutes ago, AndrewB said: I think the S3 level is inevitable. As AR3615 activity is prolonged like today, protons grow more and more. I'm pretty sure all the rise in the protons we're seeing is from the big CME. There's unlikely to have been any contribution in protons from all the subsequent flaring, not really any eruptive activity showing up in LASCO after that so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 19 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said: My personal bet would be X10+ within 36 hours. It is getting even more complex and the background flux is stable over M almost at all times. I haven't seen this since 2017. From an upper C - low M baseline it can easily shoot to X class multiple times in the hours ahead. Of course there's the chance it will get less complex or never reach X class but as of now I don't have any reason to believe it won't. Its losing complexity i think, a bit. comparing pictures over the last hour and zooming in. Just now, Philalethes said: I'm pretty sure all the rise in the protons we're seeing is from the big CME. There's unlikely to have been any contribution in protons from all the subsequent flaring, not really any eruptive activity showing up in LASCO after that so far. Thank you for the great explanation, i thought flares alone let the Protons level rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewB Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 12 minutes ago, Philalethes said: I'm pretty sure all the rise in the protons we're seeing is from the big CME. There's unlikely to have been any contribution in protons from all the subsequent flaring, not really any eruptive activity showing up in LASCO after that so far. I thought that if the source was one event like last night's CME, they would grow - and only grow. I identified the periodic declines with the variable activity of AR3615, knowing that changable long-lasting M-class activity (or flares at all) can also sometimes cause an increasing proton flux even when no CME is heading towards Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameSki Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Interesting, first message here. I know close to absolutely nothing about space weather, so looking forward to reading up here about... stuff! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sotiris Konstantis Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) 25 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Its losing complexity i think, a bit. comparing pictures over the last hour and zooming in. I'm not seeing it losing complexity quite the opposite to be honest. It begins to seperate yes, but not losing complexity. Edited March 23 by Sotiris Konstantis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 15 minutes ago, AndrewB said: I thought that if the source was one event like last night's CME, they would grow - and only grow. I identified the periodic declines with the variable activity of AR3615, knowing that changable long-lasting M-class activity (or flares at all) can also sometimes cause an increasing proton flux even when no CME is heading towards Earth. They can make proton levels rise but it's going to be insignificant. If little to no material leaves there won't be much to measure. Especially when there is no real visible CME that can be seen from AR3615. Most if not all proton events are accompanied by some sort of CME. 2 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said: I'm not seeing it losing complexity quite the opposite to be honest. It begins to seperate yes, but not losing complexity. It's gaining spots and area coverage still. It's bound to decay a bit but it hasn't stopped growing from what I see. The magnetic flux also looks like it's becoming more concentrated as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 7 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said: I'm not seeing it losing complexity quite the opposite to be honest. It begins to seperate yes, but not losing complexity. isnt separation causing less shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa Cloud Chaser Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 It's been just under an hour of being in C class now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pegasus51 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 "No, owing to entirely unique physics which produce them vs. plate tectonics and geology. " (snip} Thanks Christopher Shriver... (early depletion of "likes.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 8 minutes ago, Parabolic said: They can make proton levels rise but it's going to be insignificant. If little to no material leaves there won't be much to measure. Especially when there is no real visible CME that can be seen from AR3615. Most if not all proton events are accompanied by some sort of CME. Yeah, I think some movement up and down is simply to be expected from the same event, since the ejected protons won't be distributed perfectly evenly or smoothly. For example, the larger downward spike (around 12Z) is the size of six S1 events, and I don't think it's realistic for flares without ejections to affect the flux nearly that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 39 minutes ago, Manu said: Have you ever witnessed this sort of plateau effect (purple arrows in chart below)? I only remember that for X20+ flares (I thought it was the instruments saturating? obviously not the case here) Do you know where it comes from? This sometimes happens because of the constant flaring. Basically before the flare can diminish it's already flaring again. GOES-P can only measure the full visible disk so what ever output the sun is creating will be measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pegasus51 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (snip) "I suppose a better question would perhaps be if periods of extreme Solar activity in some way expends energy from the larger reservoir that causes the Solar cycles in the first place. (snip) Good food... thanks Philalethes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 9 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Yeah, I think some movement up and down is simply to be expected from the same event, since the ejected protons won't be distributed perfectly evenly or smoothly. For example, the larger downward spike (around 12Z) is the size of six S1 events, and I don't think it's realistic for flares without ejections to affect the flux nearly that much. The uneven distribution of protons is a very good point. Especially since it was a long duration event. The protons would be released "gradually" in a sense along with with the uneven spray pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up north Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) New to all this, don’t really understand it that much, a lot of people say a big X flair could take out all the power grids, is this true? Thank you Edited March 23 by Up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Sedlák Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 It is now calm for "longer" period of time. I bet it will go back up in 30 minutes. Proton flux is almost at S3 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Huh, I didn't notice how big it got until now; it seems to be almost the same size as the 1859 sunspot (I think?). I'm not sure if size correlates with activity though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manu Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 28 minutes ago, Parabolic said: Basically before the flare can diminish it's already flaring again... Ok thank you. I was thinking about something like that. Just strange that it flares again at the exact same level... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 3 minutes ago, Bedreamon said: Huh, I didn't notice how big it got until now; it seems to be almost the same size as the 1859 sunspot (I think?). I'm not sure if size correlates with activity though. size is not everything. size similar to the carring5ton producing sunspot does not mean the region is as complex 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 26 minutes ago, Peter Sedlák said: It is now calm for "longer" period of time. I bet it will go back up in 30 minutes. Proton flux is almost at S3 level. I hope the region is not done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameSki Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 4 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said: I hope the region is not done... How unfortunate that would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamDieGurke Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Seems like it is calming down a bit after this M flare spam. Though rn its doing that "plateau" thingy again in form of a high end C flare (C9.94), probably gonna get back to M any moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameSki Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 5 minutes ago, SamDieGurke said: Seems like it is calming down a bit after this M flare spam. Though rn its doing that "plateau" thingy again in form of a high end C flare (C9.94), probably gonna get back to M any moment. Does that mean anything for future, shall we say, opportunities for this region? Or is this a usual occurrence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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