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AR3615


Wolf star
Go to solution Solved by Davbit,

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51 minutes ago, Up north said:

New to all this, don’t really understand it that much, a lot of people say a big X flair could take out all the power grids, is this true? Thank you

Highly unlikely, they are protected against the Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) that can be created by large CMEs.  Power companies have anticipated the problems and taken steps to prevent them.

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10 minutes ago, GameSki said:

Does that mean anything for future, shall we say, opportunities for this region? Or is this a usual occurrence?

It's kind of hard to say. The 2003 Halloween geomagnetic storms was caused by a region releasing several strong flares in a matter of days. The structure of the region is a very important factor, it's hard to put a pattern to its behavior but this is usually a good sign for activity.

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2 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

It's kind of hard to say. The 2003 Halloween geomagnetic storms was caused by a region releasing several strong flares in a matter of days. The structure of the region is a very important factor, it's hard to put a pattern to its behavior but this is usually a good sign for activity.

Would be great, but considering the main weather condition in my area is cloudy I doubt I'd be much excited :)

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8 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

Highly unlikely, they are protected against the Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) that can be created by large CMEs.  Power companies have anticipated the problems and taken steps to prevent them.

 

1 hour ago, Up north said:

New to all this, don’t really understand it that much, a lot of people say a big X flair could take out all the power grids, is this true? Thank you

Didn't mean to quote Sam as well.

X-flares don't always produce solar storms. Infact, almost all of the largest X-flares from this solar cycle either produced no solar storm or insignificant solar storms. The couple of good ones were pointed in the wrong direction but even then they wouldn't have been detrimental to society.

We've experienced numerous G5 storms in the last 30 years and have come out relatively unscathed.

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3 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

 

Didn't mean to quote Sam as well.

X-flares don't always produce solar storms. Infact, almost all of the largest X-flares from this solar cycle either produced no solar storm or insignificant solar storms. The couple of good ones were pointed in the wrong direction but even then they wouldn't have been detrimental to society.

We've experienced numerous G5 storms in the last 30 years and have come out relatively unscathed.

We had g5 storms in recent times?

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3 minutes ago, Iowa Cloud Chaser said:

2 during the 2003 Halloween storms and one in 2001 or 2000 I believe

Over 20 years. It's definitely time for another G5 storm

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3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

in the southern part again´? i have been focussed on the southern deltas

It is almost the entire region at this point. Maybe not the strongest, but there are a lot of areas of magnetic shear.

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2 minuten geleden, Sotiris Konstantis zei:

we're stuck at C9 for a while. Wonder how long we will remain barely below M.

Haha insane right. What a region. Kind of hoping it doesn't keep dipping in and out of the M-class range. Kinda tired of all the R1 radio blackout alerts. Haha.

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1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

It is almost the entire region at this point. Maybe not the strongest, but there are a lot of areas of magnetic shear.

What do you personally use to determine the amount of shear within a region? 

And yes, there are several deltas but to be honest some are really small so i focus on the proper ones.

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3 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Haha insane right. What a region. Kind of hoping it doesn't keep dipping in and out of the M-class range. Kinda tired of all the R1 radio blackout alerts. Haha.

Haha right. I wish there was a way to turn off alerts for M class activity when this busy. 🤣

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2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

What do you personally use to determine the amount of shear within a region? 

And yes, there are several deltas but to be honest some are really small so i focus on the proper ones.

It is like the area you circled in the image, the umbra of the opposite polarities are just about pushed together. The east side has some magnetic shear. The west side has developing deltas.

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2 minuten geleden, Sotiris Konstantis zei:

Haha right. I wish there was a way to turn off alerts for M class activity when this busy. 🤣

There is. In the app at least you can specify exactly what alerts you want. Twitter of course shows every alert. 

Go to settings, manage push alerts.

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4 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

There is. In the app at least you can specify exactly what alerts you want. Twitter of course shows every alert. 

Go to settings, manage push alerts.

Oh wow. I just did it! Thank you very much! I tried that in the past and I couldn't find a way to disable them but now it's perfect.

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1 minuut geleden, Sotiris Konstantis zei:

Oh wow. I just did it! Thank you very much! I tried that in the past and I couldn't find a way to disable them but now it's perfect.

It’s a new feature since a few months ago 😉 so pretty new but so convenient 😎

damn this regions keeps evolving in a good way. Center a string delta close to opposite polarity and in trailing part it’s also a very strong magnetic soup. 

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2 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

It’s a new feature since a few months ago 😉 so pretty new but so convenient 😎

damn this regions keeps evolving in a good way. Center a string delta close to opposite polarity and in trailing part it’s also a very strong magnetic soup. 

Very convenient indeed, you guys keep making great changes to an already great website/app. ❤️ !

Where exactly is the string delta?

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9 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

damn this regions keeps evolving in a good way. Center a string delta close to opposite polarity and in trailing part it’s also a very strong magnetic soup. 

If with so many deltas and so high complexity and rapid growth we don't see at least a mid-X I will be extremely surprised considering we got mid X-flares from regions way less complex.

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