mozy Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Just now, Jesterface23 said: 3590 gave us a G4 storm. It just took it an extra month and a new number lol Yeah they decide to shoot out earth directed CME's when the regions looks unimpressive instead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Philalethes Posted March 26 Popular Post Share Posted March 26 16 minutes ago, mozy said: Yeah they decide to shoot out earth directed CME's when the regions looks unimpressive instead. I just checked the unsigned flux for this region again (here), and it has increased to 8.3e+22 Mx now, which is closer to the upper part of the moderate range identified in the paper on magnetic caging, close to where flares tend to not be eruptive. Perhaps part of the problem with regions like this is that if they just keep reorganizing themselves to more stable configurations without any eruptions, the field becomes stronger and stronger and prevents further eruptions, at least unless this effect is outmatched by a continued surge in complexity (as I hope we'll see for some even more complex regions as we reach max and beyond). 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Fluxh as been higher, did it develop more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 I think this part could flare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 18 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said: I think this part could flare. It looks okay, the umbras are relatively close. when did this delta form/intensify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 26 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: It looks okay, the umbras are relatively close. when did this delta form/intensify? I think it's been growing consistently for about 10-12 hours now. It started a little after 06:00:00UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Impulsive looking M-class flare ongoing. i think its from this AR but cant confirm yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sotiris Konstantis Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Despite this region keeps popping M flares, it's true potential was (or still is) much higher. Overall a disappointment for me. Not one X flare from this region (The one with 3614 doesn't count). Let's hope this region is not the highlight of cycle 25. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 We have a really tight delta once again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Just checked the unsigned flux for this region again, and now it's surpassed the 1e+23 Mx threshold where eruptive flares tend to be very unlikely (the post @Parabolic made about it a little while ago with the article is here); that's higher than even 3590 ever got. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 2 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Just checked the unsigned flux for this region again, and now it's surpassed the 1e+23 Mx threshold where eruptive flares tend to be very unlikely (the post @Parabolic made about it a little while ago with the article is here); that's higher than even 3590 ever got. Perhaps limb of disappointment can prove us wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 14 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Just checked the unsigned flux for this region again, and now it's surpassed the 1e+23 Mx threshold where eruptive flares tend to be very unlikely (the post @Parabolic made about it a little while ago with the article is here); that's higher than even 3590 ever got. Tnx for reposting that @Philalethes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 28 minutes ago, mozy said: Perhaps limb of disappointment can prove us wrong. There's definitely always a chance. Even in the flares investigated in that paper there are some outliers, like what looks to be an eruptive M4 flare that occurred at around this flux; but it sure looks less likely. I'll definitely be watching the flux of large regions in the future to see how well that statistical relationship really holds, although it's hard to say what happens to it once the regions rotate out of view. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 6 hours ago, Philalethes said: There's definitely always a chance. Even in the flares investigated in that paper there are some outliers, like what looks to be an eruptive M4 flare that occurred at around this flux; but it sure looks less likely. I'll definitely be watching the flux of large regions in the future to see how well that statistical relationship really holds, although it's hard to say what happens to it once the regions rotate out of view. So it's possible for flares to break free from magnetic caging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 10 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said: So it's possible for flares to break free from magnetic caging? Well, I suspect there is a dynamic at play there between the eruptive forces and the confining forces, but I think that dynamic is probably quite complex. Considering e.g. the aforementioned M4 flare, there were plenty of flares in the study which were stronger, but ended up being confined, despite occurring at roughly the same flux. It might be because the flux itself doesn't necessarily tell you everything about how much confinement there actually is, and that two regions with the same flux can have different levels of confinement due to the details of the region structures, but it's clearly a principle which seems to hold in the general case. So it's hard to say whether that M4 flare broke free from its cage, or whether there wasn't actually that strong of a cage there in that particular case, but if I were to guess I would say that a sufficiently powerful flare can indeed break the confinement by virtue of simply outmatching the confining force with more eruptive force; I would also say that the data in that paper does show evidence for that, with eruptive flares at the moderate fluxes tending to be significantly stronger on average, but since stronger flares tend to be more eruptive in general you might need to do some more in-depth statistical analysis to find out if that really is the case or not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 On 3/25/2024 at 6:12 PM, hamateur 1953 said: If this thing discharges a non-earth directed CME we will have to ask @Adohran to make another one of those hilarious memes! Haha. Boo hoo. Alright, Bet! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 43 minutes ago, Adohran said: Alright, Bet! It helps to dull the disappointment of AR failures. 🤣🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 And here goes the region 3615 - M7 flare now: https://twitter.com/_SpaceWeather_/status/1773236855040864367?t=X_zwDV3N9UcVONEi2ajNCA&s=19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ester89 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 The pattern repeats once more. The region throws up the strongest flares as it moves away from the center of the disk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Just now, Ester89 said: The pattern repeats once more. The region throws up the strongest flares as it moves away from the center of the disk Just wait till it gets to the limb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Loops rising, prelude to an eruption? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 21 minutes ago, mozy said: Loops rising, prelude to an eruption? Hard to say exactly what's going on; in 284 Å it seems like some loops broke off a bit earlier already, but in 304 Å it looks like it started with an eruption a couple of hours ago that rained straight back down, and that maybe these rising loops are just the aftermath of that. Not sure. But I do agree, it does look like something's breaking or about to break off in 171 and 284 Å, so could definitely be some eruption going on or about to happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misaka Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 48 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Hard to say exactly what's going on; in 284 Å it seems like some loops broke off a bit earlier already, but in 304 Å it looks like it started with an eruption a couple of hours ago that rained straight back down, and that maybe these rising loops are just the aftermath of that. Not sure. But I do agree, it does look like something's breaking or about to break off in 171 and 284 Å, so could definitely be some eruption going on or about to happen. Do you mean this one? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 1 hour ago, mozy said: Loops rising, prelude to an eruption? Definitely looks like it's about to. Loops that initially started rising mostly connected passed the west limb but reconnected to itself and began rising higher. They are also more sporadic than the surrounding loops. The base of the loops are also brightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 It crackles in the upper C-Class range. Maybe a sign for more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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