AR 13296

[mozy]

Here we go!

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, mozy said:

Here we go!

another flare in progress  is the region still in a good position?

[Isatsuki San]

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

otro brote en progreso  ¿la región todavía está en una buena posición?

It's my opinion if he's in a good position for now 

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Isatsuki San said:

It's my opinion if he's in a good position for now 

isnt it out of earth strike zone and more westerly? The CME looks to fling westwards. (take what i say with a grain of salt, people im no expert)

theres a CME visible in Stereo but it was already there before the flare.. pics attached. anyone info about that?

~30 mins before the flare (already visible) :
 

also visible on lasco (very faint to me?) before the flare: 

[Philalethes]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

isnt it out of earth strike zone and more westerly? The CME looks to fling westwards. (take what i say with a grain of salt, people im no expert)

theres a CME visible in Stereo but it was already there before the flare.. pics attached. anyone info about that?

~30 mins before the flare (already visible) :
 

Looks to be a slow-moving one from the C7 around 14:30.

Still hard to say about this one, it obviously gets less and less likely as spots approach the limb, but eruptions can have a bit of an angle to them as far as I'm aware, and the width also varies, so I suppose there's always a chance. I agree that it seems to go out in more or less the direction you'd expect from its position.

[MinYoongi]

i think a CME was created, i just dont know how much earth directednes it could have because of the position and trajectory

Just now, Philalethes said:

Looks to be a slow-moving one from the C7 around 14:30.

Still hard to say about this one, it obviously gets less and less likely as spots approach the limb, but eruptions can have a bit of an angle to them as far as I'm aware, and the width also varies, so I suppose there's always a chance. I agree that it seems to go out in more or less the direction you'd expect from its position.

thanks for your opinion ❤️ 

i think a CME is starting to begin to show on stereo (19:09UTC) @mozy @Philalethes

https://twitter.com/SolarHam/status/1656019078258081795?s=20

am i right in assuming the bulk goes west?

[Philalethes]

19 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

i think a CME is starting to begin to show on stereo (19:09UTC)

Seems to indeed be headed "west", but it looks quite wide:

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Philalethes said:

Seems to indeed be headed "west", but it looks quite wide:

dont forget the cme before of that is unrelated ( i wonder where it came from though)

so you think bulk heads west and we may get a glancing hit?

[mozy]

I would expect an earth directed component, you can see the shockwave / dimming spread over the central disk

[Philalethes]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

dont forget the cme before of that is unrelated ( i wonder where it came from though)

so you think bulk heads west and we may get a glancing hit?

You can see this one emerging in the last two frames of the above gif; the penultimate frame in particular seems to show very well the general direction. Not sure if there might be a glancing hit or not, could be I suppose; maybe even more. Some more imagery will give a better impression of its width.

Edited May 9, 2023 by Philalethes

[MinYoongi]

4 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

You can see this one emerging in the last two frames of the above gif; the penultimate frame in particular seems to show very well the general direction. Not sure if there might be a glancing hit or not, could be I suppose; maybe even more. Some more imagery will give a better impression of its width.

will you update me?

wow thats really fast

@mozy The radio emission is not tied to cme speed right?

[mozy]

5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

will you update me?

wow thats really fast

@mozy The radio emission is not tied to cme speed right?

I remember someone saying they're not.

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, mozy said:

I remember someone saying they're not.

Yes so do i but then i see this post and wonder https://twitter.com/Wicky_dubs_WX/status/1656025078071533569?s=20

[Sam Warfel]

They may not be precisely, exactly, correlated, but generally, fast Type IIs are fast CMEs, and since this was a pretty fast II, I expect a pretty fast/strong CME.

[MinYoongi]

 

@Philalethes @mozy @Jesterface23 what do you say?

Just now, Sam Warfel said:

They may not be precisely, exactly, correlated, but generally, fast Type IIs are fast CMEs, and since this was a pretty fast II, I expect a pretty fast/strong CME.

thank you

[Sam Warfel]

21 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Seems to indeed be headed "west", but it looks quite wide:

I expect a highly asymmetric full halo.  Too bad it's so westerly, but I'd expect more than a glancing blow, especially when you figure in the Parker Spiral.

I also think STEREO is a little East of Earth, so it will be less westerly as seen by LASCO and received by Earth, which will also help.  This + the Parker Spiral could give a respectable impact, but it all depends.  LASCO will help refine our view

Edited May 9, 2023 by Sam Warfel

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

I expect a highly asymmetric full halo.  Too bad it's so westerly, but I'd expect more than a glancing blow, especially when you figure in the Parker Spiral.

2 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

I expect a highly asymmetric full halo. Too bad it's so westerly, but I'd expect more than a glancing blow, 

I also think STEREO is a little East of Earth, so it will be less westerly as seen by LASCO and received by Earth.

 

i think i talked to either erika or tamitha once and they explained that the parker spiral doesnt work for cme's, im not 100% sure anymore though.. 

so you dont think its a full hit?

[Sam Warfel]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

so you dont think its a full hit?

Somewhere less than a full hit and more than a glancing blow is my best guess

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Sam Warfel said:

Somewhere less than a full hit and more than a glancing blow is my best guess

thank you.. im a bit worried again because of the tweet and the speed. have you looked at suvi yet?

[Sam Warfel]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

thank you.. im a bit worried again because of the tweet and the speed. have you looked at suvi yet?

I have not

[Philalethes]

21 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

The radio emission is not tied to cme speed right?

From what I gather the estimated speed there refers to the estimated speed of the CME front based on the frequency drift of the emission, so as Sam says it should give an indication. From Wikipedia:

Quote

The frequency drifts from higher to lower values because it depends on the electron density, and the shock propagates outward away from the Sun through lower and lower densities. By using a model for the Sun's atmospheric density, the frequency drift rate can then be used to estimate the speed of the shock wave. This exercise typically results in speeds of around 1000 km/s, which matches that of CME shocks determined from other methods.

And looking at the little imagery so far it does actually look impressive.

10 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

I expect a highly asymmetric full halo.  Too bad it's so westerly, but I'd expect more than a glancing blow, especially when you figure in the Parker Spiral.

I also think STEREO is a little East of Earth, so it will be less westerly as seen by LASCO and received by Earth, which will also help.  This + the Parker Spiral could give a respectable impact, but it all depends.  LASCO will help refine our view

Yeah, it doesn't look bad, actually. As @mozy points out the dimming seems to be towards the central disk too, as seen e.g. here.

Edited May 9, 2023 by Philalethes
typo

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

From what I gather the estimated speed there refers to the estimated speed of the CME front based on the frequency drift of the emission, so as Sam says it should give an indication. From Wikipedia:

And looking at the little imagery so far it does actually look impressive.

Yeah, it doesn't look bad, actually. As @mozy points out the dimming seems to be towards the central disk too, as seen e.g. here.

where did mozy say that? am i blind? o_o   

 

30 minutes ago, mozy said:

I would expect an earth directed component, you can see the shockwave / dimming spread over the central disk

ah i found it. lul 

[mozy]

Now a fast M 1.19 flare right after

[Calder]

19 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

i think i talked to either erika or tamitha once and they explained that the parker spiral doesnt work for cme's, im not 100% sure anymore though..

CMEs are guided by the Parker Spiral, but they don’t follow it in the way particles do.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Calder said:

CMEs are guided by the Parker Spiral, but they don’t follow it in the way particles do.

thank you for this graphic, its simple and explains what i meant.