AR 13296

[Philalethes]

Looks like it got its own designation; as @mozy remarked upon here and as I mentioned in this post, this looks like a reverse polarity region (anti-Hale region). Might be promising for activity considering all the surrounding regions as well. Here's a cropped version of the lapse focusing only on it:

[Isatsuki San]

I have good news, this sunspot seems to be giving a cme, there seems to be a long-lasting flare, and for now it is almost M3.9

Edited May 4, 2023 by Isatsuki San

[Nocny Marek]

W see it on stream right now!

[mozy]

Hopefully first of many eruptions to come from this region

@Ester89Here you have a great example of a slow rising eruptive flare  

Edited May 4, 2023 by mozy

[Hagen72]

27 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

Ich habe gute Neuigkeiten, dieser Sonnenfleck scheint ein cme zu geben, es scheint ein langanhaltendes Aufflackern zu geben, und im Moment ist es fast M3,9

1h in R1  Flow... i hope for CME too

[MinYoongi]

18 minutes ago, mozy said:

Hopefully first of many eruptions from this region

@Ester89Here you have a great example of a slow rising eruptive flare  

I think I may see a slight dimming on Suvi, does look to snap to the left though and not much. Your opinion?

[mozy]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I think I may see a slight dimming on Suvi, does look to snap to the left though and not much. Your opinion?

Yh, wont affect us

[Philalethes]

Finally a bit of eruptivity at least. Not that great in this case, but I suspect this region has the potential for more given its polarity and proximity to other fairly sizeable regions.

[Ester89]

1 hour ago, mozy said:

Con suerte, la primera de muchas erupciones que vendrán de esta región.

@Ester89Aquí tienes un gran ejemplo de una llamarada eruptiva de ascenso lento. 

Almost an hour since he began to ascend to the peak! 😀 

[Guest]

Reversed polarity magnetic fields , generates greater complexity  ,and stronger flares :

[Jesterface23]

We do have an Earth directed CME, but is certainly a glancing blow if it does arrive.

[Guest]

AR 3296  The glancing CME  https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 ;

Lasco : https://helioviewer.org/?movieId=LGhn5

Day arrives : 2023 -05 -07 .

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

Edited May 4, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco

[Jesterface23]

Running calculations for STEREO A and SOHO, the preliminary travel time for both fall around 80 hours. We have one CH facing us and another to our south, so an arrival seems unclear

[Christopher S.]

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

Running calculations for STEREO A and SOHO, the preliminary travel time for both fall around 80 hours. We have one CH facing us and another to our south, so an arrival seems unclear

Modeling would be made a bit more challenging when considering the duration of the event. The latter half of the flare in question produced a faint but visible halo on LASCO C2 images, undoubtedly scheduling the arrival of a bit of activity. As far as I am aware, this only gives certainty that CME components are scattering towards Earth. We cannot say if there will be much if any impact on Earth, considering CH, CIR, and Parker Spiral dynamics. I'd like to emphasize as well, this was a faint halo, following a more focused CME seemingly away from Earth off to the solar E. In short, I concur.

[Pepe Manteca]

Hello,

 

For a few days I broadcast live from my private observatory. Every morning from 7.30 to 11.30 if the clouds allow it. Thanks.

Pepe Manteca

 

 

 

[Philalethes]

Heh, I just came across this model on Twitter; apparently it's using some deep learning AI method (haven't looked into it) to forecast flares, and right now is predicting a 96% chance of an X-flare within 24 hours, more than even the predicted chance of an M-flare:

I have no idea what that tacky "DANGER FLARES" banner is even doing up there in the corner; quite the aesthetic. Actually, I think it's meant to convey that there's a very high chance of an M-class or stronger occurring according to the model, now that I think about it.

Anyway, I have no idea what the track record is for this thing, but I figured it's an interesting prediction due to the reverse polarity observed in this region. If 24 hours go by from the time I post this and no M- or X-flare is witnessed, I'll probably not pay any attention to it, even if it just got unlucky this one time.

[Tormentius]

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

Heh, I just came across this model on Twitter; apparently it's using some deep learning AI method (haven't looked into it) to forecast flares, and right now is predicting a 96% chance of an X-flare within 24 hours, more than even the predicted chance of an M-flare:

I have no idea what that tacky "DANGER FLARES" banner is even doing up there in the corner; quite the aesthetic. Actually, I think it's meant to convey that there's a very high chance of an M-class or stronger occurring according to the model, now that I think about it.

Anyway, I have no idea what the track record is for this thing, but I figured it's an interesting prediction due to the reverse polarity observed in this region. If 24 hours go by from the time I post this and no M- or X-flare is witnessed, I'll probably not pay any attention to it, even if it just got unlucky this one time.

Based on what I’ve seen of this model, I wouldn’t give it too much credit. I have seen two separate dates on Twitter where there was a 99 percent chance of an M flare happening was forecast and it didn’t happen 

[Philalethes]

8 hours ago, Tormentius said:

Based on what I’ve seen of this model, I wouldn’t give it too much credit. I have seen two separate dates on Twitter where there was a 99 percent chance of an M flare happening was forecast and it didn’t happen 

M-flare from this region now; I guess I'll hand it to the algorithm this time. Looks eruptive too, I'd say there's a fair chance of an Earth-directed component here.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Philalethes
typo

[Aten]

Chance of X flare is up to 100% 🤣 Yeah, I am pretty skeptical of this model.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Aten

[MinYoongi]

3 hours ago, Philalethes said:

M-flare from this region now; I guess I'll hand it to the algorithm this time. Looks eruptive too, I'd say there's a fair chance of an Earth-directed component here.

Solarham posted an update about it, it’s interesting  I quote it for you :

 

The first event to report was a prominence eruption off the northeast limb beginning at 06:00 UTC (May 5). The event flung a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space and it should be directed away from Earth.

The second event was a long duration M2.1 solar flare around AR 3296 beginning after 07:15 UTC and peaking at 08:01 UTC. This was accompanied by a Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 708 km/s. Coronagraph imagery shows a CME emerging following the flare which appears to be headed to the northeast, but at nearly the same time, a partial halo CME is also seen leaving the Sun. It is possible that much like the event from Thursday, the halo CME could be related to farsided activity and not directed towards Earth.

With so many eruptions leaving the Sun during the past 36 hours, we should remain alert for a potential glancing blow impact to our geomagnetic field this weekend.

2 hours ago, Aten said:

Chance of X flare is up to 100% 🤣 Yeah, I am pretty skeptical of this model.

I don’t even see a delta in the region anymore, the delta that was there has shrunk so incredible much that it’s not really visible to me anymore 

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

It is possible that much like the event from Thursday, the halo CME could be related to farsided activity and not directed towards Earth.

With so many eruptions leaving the Sun during the past 36 hours, we should remain alert for a potential glancing blow impact to our geomagnetic field this weekend.

Yeah, there's been a lot of activity lately, just looking at LASCO there are huffs and puffs shooting out everywhere. I'm not so sure that the last halo was from the farside; as they say it's a possibility, but it coincided very well with the long-duration flare, so I think there's definitely a chance it's headed towards us.

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

I don’t even see a delta in the region anymore, the delta that was there has shrunk so incredible much that it’s not really visible to me anymore 

For 3296 it's been on and off throughout, but I'm not sure it even had a significant delta at the time of the last eruption, maybe due to some reverse polarity magic. But the ones in 3293 are definitely long gone if you were referring to those.

[mozy]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

I don’t even see a delta in the region anymore, the delta that was there has shrunk so incredible much that it’s not really visible to me anymore 

This region has not had a delta yet

[Calder]

I don’t think it was a farside event. When looking at coronal dimming, it seems like AR3297 and AR3296 launched a CME following the filament eruption. 3296 launched one right after 3297.

https://www.sidc.be/solardemon/dimmings.php?science=0&did=6322

[Guest]

Isawa  Density / Earth / 2.2 AU : 2023 -05 -04 

UTC : 18 : 00 : 00 

Lasco C3 ,  Movie player  : 20123 - 05 -04 

UTC : Begin : 06 : 06 : 00  

https://helioviewer.org/?movieId=xwhn5 , With the possibility of impact on the ground : 13 :30 :33 UTC  of the animation .

Approximate speed of possible impact : 375 Km/ s 

Density : 10 p/cc .

Day :2023 -05-07 - 08   

Edited May 5, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco

[Philalethes]

14 minutes ago, Calder said:

I don’t think it was a farside event. When looking at coronal dimming, it seems like AR3297 and AR3296 launched a CME following the filament eruption. 3296 launched one right after 3297.

https://www.sidc.be/solardemon/dimmings.php?science=0&did=6322

Looking at it like that is quite stunning; it's almost like there's a wave traveling from beyond the limb to 3296, triggering the huge filament eruption, then 3297, and then finally 3296. At least it sure looks like those were indeed responsible for those CMEs then, so maybe we'll get some more geomagnetic activity in a few days if we're lucky.