AR 13296

[Tormentius]

What does everyone think of some of the high predictions regarding the incoming CME. I personally think they’re a little high but I’m also not an expert so wanted some thoughts

[mozy]

Question, if this positive blue area goes into the leading edge and stays there, will this region not be considered an anti-Hale region anymore or does it keep that title until the region completely decays? Because it seems like it's shifting towards that area rapidly, faster than usual.

I don't know if that's a dumb question though 😅

Edited May 8, 2023 by mozy

[Calder]

10 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

I’m not mistaking it. I know it’s most likely from this recent flare, but *sometimes* cmes carry protons with them 😅

I agree that CMEs can “carry” protons, but I always thought that they’re lower energy protons and that high energy protons, like the ones measured by GOES, are caused by flares/CMEs/explosive events on the sun. The high energy protons are travelling at much greater speeds then CMEs or solar wind which is why they don’t stick around in front to be “carried” by a CME. This is at least how I’ve always understood it. I’ve never seen an increase in GOES Proton Flux just prior to a CME arrival. And sorry, didn’t mean to get off topic, I just want to understand things correctly.

47 minutes ago, mozy said:

Question, if this positive blue area goes into the leading edge and stays there, will this region not be considered an anti-Hale region anymore or does it keep that title until the region completely decays? Because it seems like it's shifting towards that area rapidly, faster than usual.

I don't know if that's a dumb question though 😅

This seems like a valid question. I’ve read quite a bit on these regions in the past and I don’t recall this situation getting brought up. 🤔 My guess would be that it keeps the title but I’m not sure. I’m interested if anyone will have an answer to this.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Calder

[MinYoongi]

20 minutes ago, Calder said:

I agree that CMEs can “carry” protons, but I always thought that they’re lower energy protons and that high energy protons, like the ones measured by GOES, are caused by flares/CMEs/explosive events on the sun. The high energy protons are travelling at much greater speeds then CMEs or solar wind which is why they don’t stick around in front to be “carried” by a CME. This is at least how I’ve always understood it. I’ve never seen an increase in GOES Proton Flux just prior to a CME arrival. And sorry, didn’t mean to get off topic, I just want to understand things correctly.

 

Some CME's carry the Particle event protons with them, you can search for it in the forum! We had an arrival a few weeks back and once the CME hit, we got a particle event too. (without new flares)

[Philalethes]

54 minutes ago, mozy said:

Question, if this positive blue area goes into the leading edge and stays there, will this region not be considered an anti-Hale region anymore or does it keep that title until the region completely decays? Because it seems like it's shifting towards that area rapidly, faster than usual.

I don't know if that's a dumb question though 😅

I guess if most of the positive polarity shifts there it wouldn't technically be anymore, but I'd be willing to grant it the title for life for its contributions.

I guess it's what happens as the field shifts to the more stable configuration that is regularly observed.

Oh, and more flaring. Looks eruptive at first glance.

Another fakeout, juked again!

[MinYoongi]

14 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

 

Another fakeout, juked again!

no cme?

[mozy]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

no cme?

Probably meant double peak again.

Also I can't tell if something got released or if everything in that area just ripples but does not let loose.

Edited May 8, 2023 by mozy

[Philalethes]

9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

no cme?

5 minutes ago, mozy said:

Probably meant double peak again.

Yeah, that.

6 minutes ago, mozy said:

Also I can't tell if something got released or if everything in that area just ripples but does not let loose.

You're right, it's hard to tell. Could be nothing special.

[Calder]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Some CME's carry the Particle event protons with them, you can search for it in the forum! We had an arrival a few weeks back and once the CME hit, we got a particle event too. (without new flares)

I looked for it in the forum, but I couldn’t find anything that helped. The only talk was about the increase in protons on the EPAM prior to CME arrival and the major farside event that raised the Proton Flux while a near side CME was hitting earth. I might have to agree to disagree on this one. I’ll keep a close eye on the high energy protons for future CMEs.

[MZPL]

15 minutes ago, Calder said:

I looked for it in the forum, but I couldn’t find anything that helped.

I remember asking about it here. Solar protons started rising shortly after CME hit us, and x-ray flux was at background B that day.

[Calder]

1 hour ago, MZPL said:

I remember asking about it here. Solar protons started rising shortly after CME hit us, and x-ray flux was at background B that day.

Thank you! I couldn’t find any useful information online about high energy proton events during CME impacts or examples of them. That was really helpful for me. At the time, I didn’t notice the increase in protons during the CME impact. It certainly looks like it was caused by the CME as they coincided. It is slightly possible that a farside region caused an increase in protons due to the Parker spiral at the same time, but it was much more likely due to the CME. Thanks @MinYoongi for trying to help me and sorry for doubting you! 😅

[Paulo Scaldaferri]

Looks a bit messy to my inexperienced eyes…

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Paulo Scaldaferri

[Jesterface23]

All the way to M-Class 6.57 flare. See if we get a big boom out of it.

[MinYoongi]

2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

All the way to M-Class 6.57 flare. See if we get a big boom out of it.

I don’t see dimming or ejection in SUVI

[Ester89]

I really wish that some of all these flares from this region bring auroras to Germany 🤞🏼😬

[Guest]

Fulguration ,Class  M 6.5  ,  https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/archive/sdo/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_230508_213956_8060/www/ssw_cutout_20230509_032508_aia_131_N13W26_20230509_032506_j.html ,Getting closer to class X events.  AR 3296 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, Ester89 said:

I really wish that some of all these flares from this region bring auroras to Germany 🤞🏼😬

Looks like the latest flares were all impulsive, including the big one last night. There's still the CME from the long-duration one a couple of nights ago which should arrive tomorrow if it hits us, but it's no guarantee of geomagnetic activity, especially as we move closer to the solstice.

[NEAurora]

Any insight into how the coming CME is likely to perform and timing?  While somewhat weak in magnitude, the flare was pretty long lived and the cme looked decent and there seems to be a solar storm preceding it as well.

My guess is that it will be a weak impact due to an actual clear sky forecast where I live 🥲.

That said I’m at least a little confused that the noaa swpc seems to have barely even acknowledged that there might be a CME on the way (I.e, they suggest only possible minor storming beginning late on the 10th and into the 11th, and while they mention the possibility of moderate storming, they clearly aren’t expecting it.  Further, enlil model doesn’t appear to have even been run for the cme, at least not as of yet).  This seeming lack of interest suggests they might know something we don’t?  Is there good reason to believe that this will be a total bust? 

My initial assessment looking at lasco would have been an almost certain impact with likely g2 to possibly g3 around 03-09UTC on the 10th (i.e tonight), but admittedly I’m not an expert in this stuff.

… I guess we’ll find out when it gets here.

updated to reflect that the enlil model for this cme was just now released, looks like an arrival late tomorrow and mostly a miss.

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by NEAurora

[Guest]

35 minutes ago, NEAurora said:

Any insight into how the coming CME is likely to perform and timing?  While somewhat weak in magnitude, the flare was pretty long lived and the cme looked decent and there seems to be a solar storm preceding it as well.

My guess is that it will be a weak impact due to an actual clear sky forecast where I live 🥲.

That said I’m at least a little confused that the noaa swpc seems to have barely even acknowledged that there might be a CME on the way (I.e, they suggest only possible minor storming beginning late on the 10th and into the 11th, and while they mention the possibility of moderate storming, they clearly aren’t expecting it.  Further, enlil model doesn’t appear to have even been run for the cme, at least not as of yet).  This seeming lack of interest suggests they might know something we don’t?  Is there good reason to believe that this will be a total bust? 

My initial assessment looking at lasco would have been an almost certain impact with likely g2 to possibly g3 around 03-09UTC on the 10th (i.e tonight), but admittedly I’m not an expert in this stuff.

… I guess we’ll find out when it gets here.

updated to reflect that the enlil model for this cme was just now released, looks like an arrival late tomorrow and mostly a miss.

 

I have also checked the coronagraphs, in various observatories and it does not appear that it has generated a significant CME, for the moment, but it could also be the same affectation that the event causes in the telemetry, let's wait a while longer to see if even the internet improves .

http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/seeds/dailymkmovie.php?cme=20230509&r

[Philalethes]

5 minutes ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said:

I have also checked the coronagraphs, in various observatories and it does not appear that it has generated a significant CME, for the moment, but it could also be the same affectation that the event causes in the telemetry, let's wait a while longer to see if even the internet improves .

The long-duration flare from two nights ago, between May 7 and 8, did definitely produce a CME, very clearly visible on the coronagrams; that's the one they were talking about. But it might miss us for the most part anyway.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Philalethes said:

La llamarada de larga duración de hace dos noches, entre el 7 y el 8 de mayo, produjo definitivamente una CME , muy claramente visible en los coronagramas; ese es el que estaban hablando. Pero podría extrañarnos en su mayor parte de todos modos.

I have also checked the coronagraphs, in various observatories and it does not appear that it has generated a significant CME, for the moment, but it could also be the same affectation that the event causes in the telemetry, let's wait a while longer to see if even the internet improves .

6 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

La llamarada de larga duración de hace dos noches, entre el 7 y el 8 de mayo, produjo definitivamente una CME , muy claramente visible en los coronagramas; ese es el que estaban hablando. Pero podría extrañarnos en su mayor parte de todos modos.

I have also checked the coronagraphs, in various observatories and it does not appear that it has generated a significant CME, for the moment, but it could also be the same affectation that the event causes in the telemetry, let's wait a while longer to see if even the internet improves .

9 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

La llamarada de larga duración de hace dos noches, entre el 7 y el 8 de mayo, produjo definitivamente una CME , muy claramente visible en los coronagramas; ese es el que estaban hablando. Pero podría extrañarnos en su mayor parte de todos modos.

I understand, I thought, that they were talking about the CME M 6.5 event that a notable moment CME is not observed, for that event it is supposed to arrive tomorrow.

[Christopher S.]

16 hours ago, MZPL said:

I remember asking about it here. Solar protons started rising shortly after CME hit us, and x-ray flux was at background B that day.

I'm sure in this instance, the elevated protons and electrons can be contributed broadly to this spot's high frequency of impulsive flares over multiple days on this side, and isn't due to any single event, considering the proton/electron behavior does not coincide with the motion of a passing CME but rather a constant and steady stream from this AR's rambunctious behavior. I've not seen a spot like this in a while, so it's nice to catch good images of what it's been up to - it's more surprising in my opinion that we aren't deeper into an S1 storm.

I actually think we were nudged into S1 for other reasons, but in general, the EPAM is what I am referring to here. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Christopher S.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Philalethes said:

La llamarada de larga duración de hace dos noches, entre el 7 y el 8 de mayo, produjo definitivamente una CME , muy claramente visible en los coronagramas; ese es el que estaban hablando. Pero podría extrañarnos en su mayor parte de todos modos.

I understand, I thought, that they were talking about the CME M 6.5 event that a notable moment CME is not observed, for that event it is supposed to arrive tomorrow.

https://helioviewer.org/?movieId=qv7n5   Notable activity

[Tormentius]

Looks like the M6.5 did produce a CME

 

[Philalethes]

4 minutes ago, Tormentius said:

Looks like the M6.5 did produce a CME

 

I'm quite certain it did not. The CME in that animation is from the same long-duration M1.5 flare discussed previously.

Strictly speaking it produced a very faint eruption that's not Earth-directed at all, but in this context it's not the one seen there.