AR 13296

[MatejGrek]

Ah, okay. So do you think it's faulty data or just that something is coming, but not necessarily the CME "shock?"

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

No hubo shock del FMI hasta ahora. El Bt tendrá un pico notable.

and it does not look very strong according to the density of the Enlil it is more it arrives and it is almost not perceived

[Jesterface23]

6 minutes ago, MatejGrek said:

Ah, okay. So do you think it's faulty data or just that something is coming, but not necessarily the CME "shock?"

It is the data. It may be that it is really early non-science data or STEREO A solar wind data is slowly going downhill. The magnetometer data is good.

[Isatsuki San]

8 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

It is the data. It may be that it is really early non-science data or STEREO A solar wind data is slowly going downhill. The magnetometer data is good.

 Epam came back, but it doesn't seem to register the cme is close 

[NEAurora]

FYI ACE seems to be back up, and while there’s only extremely limited data at the point, it doesn’t look like the protons are really elevated yet…. So doubtful that it’s here yet.  

[Isatsuki San]

33 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

 Epam came back, but it doesn't seem to register the cme is close 

Ok the red line is going up so..., it looks like it's close ?

1 hour ago, Isatsuki San said:

 Epam came back, but it doesn't seem to register the cme is cclo

It seems because of the epam it is getting closer why the epam the red line goes up so possible impact in 2 or 3 hours?

[Jesterface23]

Close, but still looking for a good spike in the EPAMp

[Isatsuki San]

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

Close, but still looking for a good spike in the EPAMp

It seems that if it is close it is coming it is in 1 hour or 2 hour in DSCOVR hmm

[Jesterface23]

Going back to modify my bulk hit calculation to a glancing blow comes to 2023/05/12 02:30Z, so for corrections a glancing blow is looking to be more of what is coming.

.........

16 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

It seems that if it is close it is coming it is in 1 hour or 2 hour in DSCOVR hmm

Hard to tell. Once it comes, the EPAMp should be able to give us maybe within an hour heads up.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Jesterface23

[Guest]

Hace 3 horas, Jesterface23 dijo:

No hubo choque del FMI hasta ahora. El Bt tendrá un pico notable.

Estamos en KP = 4 

Densidad = 10,07 p/cc 

Velocidad = 517 Km/s 

Bz = -1nT

3 hours ago, MatejGrek said:

Ah bien. Entonces, ¿piensa que son datos defectuosos o simplemente que algo se avecina, pero no necesariamente el "shock" de CME ?

It is certainly a CME, but at the moment, it shows no signs of intensity, unless it arrives later during 12-05-2023

Edited May 11, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco

[Landon Moeller]

CME has finally arrived at STEREO. Alas, a super pathetic impact. Good luck getting auroras to mid latitudes with this one 

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

CME has finally arrived at STEREO. Alas, a super pathetic impact. Good luck getting auroras to mid latitudes with this one 

It looks like it's still coming but too weak. The oval of auora is going to go up a little bit. 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco

[Drax Spacex]

Dud.  Didn't even break Kp3.

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said:

Dud.  Didn't even break Kp3.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

Edited May 12, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco

[Isatsuki San]

1 hour ago, Drax Spacex said:

Falso. Ni siquiera rompió Kp3.

the cme hit stereo A,, and here is the image that the impact seems... normal...

[Landon Moeller]

 

Hard to believe it, but we are now in a flux rope structure of the May 9 CME, sparking a G1 class storm. However, this is not expected to be very geoeffective, as it appears to be starting in either a W or N position. 

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

 

Hard to believe it, but we are now in a flux rope structure of the May 9 CME, sparking a G1 class storm. However, this is not expected to be very geoeffective, as it appears to be starting in either a W or N position. 

 

18 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

 

Hard to believe it, but we are now in a flux rope structure of the May 9 CME, sparking a G1 class storm. However, this is not expected to be very geoeffective, as it appears to be starting in either a W or N position. 

For me it is a delay in telemetry data due to the same affectation of the satellites but it is still curious because the aurora did not occur in some parts and in another it did.

Hace 35 minutos, Landon Moeller dijo:

 

Es difícil de creer, pero ahora estamos en una estructura de cuerda de flujo de la CME del 9 de mayo , provocando una tormenta de clase G1. Sin embargo, no se espera que esto sea muy geoefectivo, ya que parece estar comenzando en una posición W o N. 

It seems that the plasma was not ejected in the same concentrations, perhaps in some parts there was more concentration and not in others, and it was not ejected in all directions in the same proportion, launching hypotheses.

54 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

 

Es difícil de creer, pero ahora estamos en una estructura de cuerda de flujo de la CME del 9 de mayo , provocando una tormenta de clase G1. Sin embargo, no se espera que esto sea muy geoefectivo, ya que parece estar comenzando en una posición W o N. 

It seems that the plasma was not ejected in the same concentrations, perhaps in some parts there was more concentration and not in others, and it was not ejected in all directions in the same proportion, launching hypotheses.

[Andrey M]

3 hours ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said:

 

For me it is a delay in telemetry data due to the same affectation of the satellites but it is still curious because the aurora did not occur in some parts and in another it did.

It seems that the plasma was not ejected in the same concentrations, perhaps in some parts there was more concentration and not in others, and it was not ejected in all directions in the same proportion, launching hypotheses.

It seems that the plasma was not ejected in the same concentrations, perhaps in some parts there was more concentration and not in others, and it was not ejected in all directions in the same proportion, launching hypotheses.

Hi, Jhon, your picture is very nice, but don't forget, that it's only model too, not real solar wind 😉

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, Andrey M said:

Hola, Jhon, tu foto es muy bonita, pero no olvides que también es solo modelo, no viento solar real 😉

There is also solar wind, but I try to explain the cme, however the wind flow there, the solar wind was not very high either.

[Guest]

Interesting CME : What can we say about this CME , ¿ Has a component towards the earth?

Edited May 13, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco

[mozy]

Gorgeous eruption taking place.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, mozy said:

Gorgeous eruption taking place.

We should analyze what comes out of the coronograph. 

[Philalethes]

33 minutes ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said:

Interesting CME : What can we say about this CME , ¿ Has a component towards the earth?

I doubt there's any chance of any Earth-directed component here. Looks about as perpendicular to Earth as you can get it. Aesthetically admirable, though.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Dudo que haya alguna posibilidad de algún componente dirigido a la Tierra aquí. Se ve tan perpendicular a la Tierra como se puede conseguir. Eso sí, estéticamente admirable.

https://helioviewer.org/?movieId=F5Nn5   ¿What arguments justify your assessment?

Edited May 13, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco

[Jesterface23]

There would need to be a massive eruption if we were to take a glancing blow from a CME impact from the region at this point.