AR 13296

[Isatsuki San]

Wait a minute... a Cme nearby? Wouldn't it be the one that was launched on the 7th of March?

[MinYoongi]

update for you @Isatsuki San i talked to tamitha, the post she made is for the solar storms before this one, she expects a new model run from noaa/nasa soon and will include it in her upcoming forecast video/live she will do today. so what you posted is not for this storm

Just now, Isatsuki San said:

Wait a minute... a Cme nearby? Wouldn't it be the one that was launched on the 7th of March?

exactly

[Isatsuki San]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

actualización para ti@Isatsuki San Hablé con tamitha, la publicación que hizo es para las tormentas solares antes de esta, espera que pronto se ejecute un nuevo modelo de noaa/nasa y lo incluirá en su próximo video de pronóstico/en vivo que hará hoy. entonces lo que publicaste no es para esta tormenta

exactamente

oh well I'm sorry, and it seems that this cme wow came before its time

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Isatsuki San said:

 and it seems that this cme wow came before its time

i dont know what you mean

From solarham: 

"An energetic halo coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with the eruption and there is almost certainly an Earth directed component. I would expect an impact to our geomagnetic field by May 11th the earliest. This could prolong or intensify geomagnetic storming already in the forecast from a slower moving CME on May 7th that is predicted to reach Earth sometime during the next 24-36 hours."

[Isatsuki San]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

i dont know what you mean

ah in my previous lining it says a cme close? is it from 7th of manzo? I mean, I said that right now it's close and as you said exactly I said wow I'm surprised I was early

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Isatsuki San said:

ah in my previous lining it says a cme close? is it from 7th of manzo? I mean, I said that right now it's close and as you said exactly I said wow I'm surprised I was early

what do you mean with "i was early" , thats what i dont get.. sorry. language barrier ❤️ 

[Guest]

AR 3296 :

Fulguratión : M 4. 3   , https://helioviewer.org/?movieId=nP7n5 , 360 ° , direct hit .

[Isatsuki San]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

what do you mean with "i was early" , thats what i dont get.. sorry. language barrier ❤️ 

I thought you said that exactly when I said if it was the cme of Manzo 7 that I was going to arrive before time 

[Guest]

Just now, Isatsuki San said:

pense que dijiste eso exactamente cuando dije si era el cme de manzo 7 que iba a llegar antes de tiempo 

First :

The one that occurs between the days 7 -8 -05 2023  hits between days 10 -11 -2023 

The M4.3  It also has an impact, it takes between one day and three days .

And you need to know the M5.0

[Isatsuki San]

7 minutes ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said:

Primero :

El que ocurre entre los días 7 -8 -05 2023 impacta entre los días 10 -11 -2023 

El M4.3 también tiene impacto, tarda entre un día y tres días.

Y necesitas saber el M5.0

I still tried to explain what I wanted to ask and say, okay 

[MinYoongi]

Nasa did a run for the cme : 

[Jesterface23]

Can't wait to catch up everything when I'm back home.

The different areas in 3296 currently,

[Tormentius]

11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Nasa did a run for the cme : 

So a glancing blow then?

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Tormentius said:

So a glancing blow then?

yes.

[Isatsuki San]

1 hour ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said:

First :

The one that occurs between the days 7 -8 -05 2023  hits between days 10 -11 -2023 

The M4.3  It also has an impact, it takes between one day and three days .

And you need to know the M5.0

And it seems that there was an impact on DSCOVR, so it seems to confirm what the cme of Manzo 7 implied recently. 

[Paulo Scaldaferri]

CME looks arriving, and not enough it just fires another 6.6 a bit long…

[Jesterface23]

For this new CME I will go with a preliminary arrival time of 2023/05/11 13:10Z  with a chance of error -7.5/+10.5 hours. A travel time of 42:10. I'll go with a chance of G3, and G4 possible.

Edited May 10, 2023 by Jesterface23

[Christopher S.]

It is interesting how much of a proton/electron component there is to this region and its activity despite relatively moderate X-ray flux and region size. It has proven to me that anti-Hale regions are worth deliberate and frequent observation. My favorite imagery so far is SDO's red channel, AIA 304, as it shows the region spitting filament out like solar chewing tobacco.

[Isatsuki San]

6 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

La NASA hizo una carrera por el cme : 

and here we have a better view of cme

[Philalethes]

3 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

It is interesting how much of a proton/electron component there is to this region and its activity despite relatively moderate X-ray flux and region size. It has proven to me that anti-Hale regions are worth deliberate and frequent observation. My favorite imagery so far is SDO's red channel, AIA 304, as it shows the region spitting filament out like solar chewing tobacco.

Yeah, it's been really impressive; the protons have been constantly elevated since May 5 (unless there's something faulty about the data) it seems, from the time of the first long-duration M2 that day:

B

The high-energy protons responsible for the S1 storming seem to have been almost exclusively from the last couple of long-duration M-flares:

And interestingly, the electrons did seem to spike when lower-energy protons started to rise too, but most of their activity also seems to be from the last long-duration flares:

Interesting that there's a correspondence between electrons and high-energy protons primarily in that sense, even though they spiked with the first flare too.

[Philalethes]

Another impulsive flare; just what we needed to complete the trio:

[Guest]

CME

[Ester89]

17 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

Es interesante la cantidad de componente protón/electrón que hay en esta región y su actividad a pesar del flujo de rayos X y el tamaño de la región relativamente moderados. Me ha demostrado que las regiones anti-Hale merecen una observación deliberada y frecuente. Mi imagen favorita hasta ahora es el canal rojo de SDO , AIA 304, ya que muestra la región escupiendo filamentos como tabaco de mascar solar.

I would like to know, where can I find the image you are talking about?

[Philalethes]

26 minutes ago, Ester89 said:

I would like to know, where can I find the image you are talking about?

They're referring to the 304 Å channel of SDO in general, not a specific image; it seems like this might have gotten lost in translation due to "imagery" being translated to "imagen", which can also mean just "image" by the looks of it.

In any case, it's the red channel here, top right where it says "304 Å"; it's the wavelength where it's the easiest to see filaments/prominences, as they explain:

Quote

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

 

[Ester89]

10 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Se refieren al canal de 304 Å de SDO en general, no a una imagen específica; parece que esto podría haberse perdido en la traducción debido a que "imágenes" se tradujo a "imagen", que también puede significar simplemente "imagen" por lo que parece.

En cualquier caso, es el canal rojo aquí , arriba a la derecha donde dice "304 Å"; es la longitud de onda donde es más fácil ver filamentos/protuberancias, como explican:

 

Thanks a lot. It's an incredible imagery even for me, I hardly understand anything I'm seeing 🙈

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