Guest Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 (edited) The CME we are waiting for is coming : Time UTC : 15 : 26 11 -05 -2023 rO MP = 12.29 Re Time UTC : 15 : 44 11 -05 - 2023 rO MP = 8.9 Re Time UTC : 15 : 46 11 -05 -2023 rO MP = 9.04 Re Time : UTC 18 : 15 11 -05 -2023 rO MP = 9.2 Re 11 -05 -2023 rO = 9.2 Re Time UTC : 18 : 13 Time UTC : 16 : 53 11 -05 2023 rO MP = 8.65 Re Slow and long duration event . It is about to be revealed in the DSCOVR, the trend shows impact towards 18:00 UTC . Time : UTC 17 :55 11 -05-2023 rO MP = 8.34 Re Edited May 11, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 34 minutes ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said: The CME we are waiting for is coming : Time UTC : 15 : 26 11 -05 -2023 rO MP = 12.29 Re Time UTC : 15 : 44 11 -05 - 2023 rO MP = 8.9 Re Time UTC : 15 : 46 11 -05 -2023 rO MP = 9.04 Re Time UTC : 16 : 53 11 -05 202 rO MP = 8.65 Re Slow and long duration event . It is about to be revealed in the DSCOVR, the trend shows impact towards 18:00 UTC . im not quite sure what all of this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MatejGrek Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 (edited) Yes, I'm also confused about what it all means. Are there any ways to see if a CME is on its way apart from ACE and DSCOVR readings? Edited May 11, 2023 by MatejGrek grammar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, MatejGrek said: Sí, también estoy confundido acerca de lo que significa todo esto. ¿Hay alguna forma de ver si un CME está en camino aparte de las lecturas de ACE y DSCVR? By velocity and compressions in time of the magnetosphere. 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: No estoy muy seguro de qué es todo esto. You have to follow the movement hourly , Analyzing compressions and speeds is analysis. Edited May 11, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, MatejGrek said: Are there any ways to see if a CME is on its way apart from ACE and DSCOVR readings? We don't have a way to tell currently. ACE's data went down, hopefully for not too much longer. We would watch for a sharp increase in the EPAMp data from the satellite for the only way to tell if a CME is close, other than maybe being able to see if a CME impacts STEREO A first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: We don't have a way to tell currently. ACE's data went down, hopefully for not too much longer. We would watch for a sharp increase in the EPAMp data from the satellite for the only way to tell if a CME is close, other than maybe being able to see if a CME impacts STEREO A first. Analyzing compressions and speeds is analysis , the impact is coming . Edited May 11, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said: Analyzing compressions and speeds is analysis , the impact is coming . There is no way to tell if a CME is coming that way. That's like saying someone throws a dart at 2 balloons in a line and saying the last balloon will be hit before the first. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: No hay forma de saber si un CME viene de esa manera. Eso es como decir que alguien lanza un dardo a 2 globos en línea y decir que el último globo será golpeado antes que el primero. If you have to be an analyst, the Bz moves to negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 25 minutes ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said: Analizar compresiones y velocidades es análisis, el impacto está llegando. stereo a, it does not detect any impact of cme so it will take time to arrive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 Just now, Isatsuki San said: stereo a, no detecta ningun impacto de cme por lo que tardara en llegar Raise the kp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said: Sube el kp I think it will arrive at 19 or 20 utc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: I think it will arrive at 19 or 20 utc the range of 18 arrives Edited May 11, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 At this point I think we are falling into a gray area of impact. We may not get hit by the edge of the main bulk, but its not quite a glancing blow either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: En este punto, creo que estamos cayendo en un área gris de impacto. Puede que no nos golpee el borde del bulto principal, pero tampoco es un golpe de refilón. like what gray part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: like what gray part? 12 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: like what gray part? I think that it can arrive but not as strong as thought, since there was compression of the magnetosphere or as the colleague said, impact later and the internet is very affected . I think that it can arrive but not as strong as thought, since there was compression of the magnetosphere or as the colleague said, impact later and the interior is very affected Edited May 11, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Isatsuki San said: like what gray part? Gray area is just a saying. The area we may be impacted by would be a very narrow span on part of the CME, so the odds of it happening would be pretty small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 (edited) Hace 3 minutos, Jesterface23 dijo: El área gris es solo un dicho. El área en la que podemos vernos afectados sería un tramo muy estrecho en parte de la CME , por lo que las probabilidades de que suceda serían bastante pequeñas. La posibilidad de un impacto tardío también es probable ya que no viene con tanta fuerza y es solo un componente , The possibility of late impact is likely as well as it does not come with such force and is only a component Edited May 11, 2023 by Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: El área gris es solo un dicho. El área en la que podemos vernos afectados sería un tramo muy estrecho en parte de la CME , por lo que las probabilidades de que suceda serían bastante pequeñas. I mean, the gray part would be the strongest part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: I mean, the gray part would be the strongest part? Better than a glancing blow, not as good as a bulk hit. Edited May 11, 2023 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: Mejor que un golpe de refilón, no tan bueno como un golpe masivo. We agree, but remember, that two are coming, it is possible that in the end, no matter how weak they are, when they arrive, they will generate a cannibal effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Mejor que un golpe de refilón, no tan bueno como un golpe masivo. 5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Better than a glancing blow, not as good as a bulk hit. ah okay, although there is also the possibility that he is late, and well we will see 2 minutes ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said: We agree, but remember, that two are coming, it is possible that in the end, no matter how weak they are, when they arrive, they will generate a cannibal effect. recien me acuerdo que tu y yo hablamos español, jaja, y calma, no hay un efecto caniball, para que sea un efecto canibal el otro cme debe ser mas rapido, asi que no creo que suceda I just remembered that you and I speak Spanish, haha, and calm down, there isn't a canniball effect, for it to be a cannibal effect, the other cme must be faster, so I don't think it will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 36 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: ah okay, although there is also the possibility that he is late, and well we will see recien me acuerdo que tu y yo hablamos español, jaja, y calma, no hay un efecto caniball, para que sea un efecto canibal el otro cme debe ser mas rapido, asi que no creo que suceda I just remembered that you and I speak Spanish, haha, and calm down, there isn't a canniball effect, for it to be a cannibal effect, the other cme must be faster, so I don't think it will happen Sí , llega muy disminuida según el ENLIL , como decía alguien ,es posible que ni llegue. 8 minutes ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said: Sí , llega muy disminuida según el ENLIL , como decía alguien ,es posible que ni llegue. 10 minutes ago, Jhon Henry Osorio Orozco said: Sí , llega muy disminuida según el ENLIL , como decía alguien ,es posible que ni llegue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MatejGrek Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 Looks like CME impact at STEREO A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, MatejGrek said: Looks like CME impact at STEREO A? and it doesn't look very strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, MatejGrek said: Looks like CME impact at STEREO A? There was no IMF shock so far. The Bt will have a noticeable spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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