AR 13296

[Jesterface23]

27 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

what do you expect ?

To be determined

.....

The first image from SOHO's C2 imagery. Currently a dull shock on the southern and eastern sides,

Edited May 8, 2023 by Jesterface23

[Calder]

This is one of those times where I wish we had new coronagraphs at L1. The wait is unbearable lol. It’ll be really nice to have frequent data once they send them up in a year or two.

[Jesterface23]

4 minutes ago, Calder said:

This is one of those times where I wish we had new coronagraphs at L1. The wait is unbearable lol. It’ll be really nice to have frequent data once they send them up in a year or two.

Heh, my wish is for STEREO A can stay put. Just that slight distance away from Earth is incredibly useful along with coronagraphs at L1.

[MinYoongi]

6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Heh, my wish is for STEREO A can stay put. Just that slight distance away from Earth is incredibly useful along with coronagraphs at L1.

Yeah its getting closer and getting uselesser  

[Jesterface23]

We have a full C3 halo, slightly offset ~9Rsun to ~7Rsun. At this rate I might only need about 4 more hours of imagery from SOHO.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Jesterface23

[MinYoongi]

15 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Heh, my wish is for STEREO A can stay put. Just that slight distance away from Earth is incredibly useful along with coronagraphs at L1.

 

[Isatsuki San]

 

10 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Tenemos un halo C3 completo, ligeramente desplazado ~9Rsun a ~7Rsun. A este ritmo, es posible que solo necesite unas 4 horas más de imágenes del SOHO .

 

[Paulo Scaldaferri]

Ouch. SDO now.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Paulo Scaldaferri said:

Ouch. SDO now.

ouch?

it looks very faint or am i judging wrong?

[Jesterface23]

Here's our nice full halo,

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

Here's our nice full halo,

" It would appear that the bulk of plasma is heading to the northwest, however a halo is still visible meaning that there should be an Earth directed component. If so, an impact to our geomagnetic field may be possible by May 10th. More updates to follow regarding this event." 

 

From solarham

[Paulo Scaldaferri]

Cactus updated… only 20 degrees??

[Christopher S.]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

 

The ultimate example of why every little bit of activity doesn't need commentary.

I'll try to elaborate: Patience is a virtue. That's all I've got at the moment.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Christopher S.

[Calder]

The proton flux is rising from this flare.

[MinYoongi]

6 minutes ago, Calder said:

The proton flux is rising from this flare.

Could also be from the nearing/arriving CME 

35 minutes ago, Christopher S. said:

The ultimate example of why every little bit of activity doesn't need commentary.

I'll try to elaborate: Patience is a virtue. That's all I've got at the moment.

It’s nice to speculate and follow things in real time though. I get what your point is but it’s fun  

[Calder]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Could also be from the nearing/arriving CME 

You might be mistaken or maybe I wasn’t clear. Rising (high energy) proton flux indicates a strong eruption on the sun. GOES Proton Flux is measuring high energy particles, while EPAM is measuring low energy particles. A rise in protons on the EPAM could indicate a CME nearing but I’m pretty sure a rise in GOES proton flux is not indicative of a CME nearing. It’s still rising.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Calder
Added more clarity

[Christopher S.]

16 minutes ago, Calder said:

You might be mistaken or maybe I wasn’t clear. Rising flux indicates a strong eruption on the sun. Goes Proton Flux is measuring high energy particles, while EPAM is measuring low energy particles. A rise in protons on the EPAM could indicate a CME nearing but I’m pretty sure a rise in the flux is not indicative of a CME nearing. It’s still rising.

There is a gradient of the structuring of mass which trails behind protons, which eventful or not should still be considered as a sort of "heading" for more dense ejecta. Considering the eruptive events in the past few days, it is perfectly viable to take pot-shots at what is going on through these admittedly rudimentary physics. I will agree and add that the data on EPAM isn't an indicator for nearness by any means, but rather that any eruptive event in questions will have directed high-energy protons and therefore some order of magnitude of mass thereafter, depending of course on interfering phenomenon like N Bz.

I will further add that any increase to the X-Ray Flux only occurs on the Earth-facing side of the sun, and not on far-side events. This is important because any halo CMEs associated with a rise on this graph are markers of certainty, that geomagnetic disturbances are coming.

As always, this is nothing to worry about. Aurora at best, your microwave not heating your burrito all the way through at worst.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Christopher S.

[Jesterface23]

For the CME I will end up going with a preliminary arrival time at L1 of 2023/05/10 00:45Z +- 9 hours. I'll go with G2 seeming more likely and G3 possible.

[MinYoongi]

6 hours ago, Calder said:

You might be mistaken or maybe I wasn’t clear. Rising (high energy) proton flux indicates a strong eruption on the sun. GOES Proton Flux is measuring high energy particles, while EPAM is measuring low energy particles. A rise in protons on the EPAM could indicate a CME nearing but I’m pretty sure a rise in GOES proton flux is not indicative of a CME nearing. It’s still rising.

I’m not mistaking it. I know it’s most likely from this recent flare, but *sometimes* cmes carry protons with them 😅

[Philalethes]

8 hours ago, Paulo Scaldaferri said:

Cactus updated… only 20 degrees??

That algorithm really struggles sometimes; but now it's showing a type IV 282° halo, first I've seen there in a while. Relatively low median velocity though, which seems congruent with observations too.

[Isatsuki San]

ewait... is the cme coming?

[MinYoongi]

16 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

ewait... is the cme coming?

its not that fast, we had some cme's over the last couple days. @Philalethes

[Isatsuki San]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

no es tan rápido, tuvimos algunos cme en los últimos días.@philalethes

True, I forgot that, I was scared for a few moments, that will happen to me because I just woke up

[Guest]

M 1.6 - AR 3296  https://helioviewer.org/?movieId=Cs7n5 

CME , with impact component  https://helioviewer.org/?movieId=bs7n5

[Paulo Scaldaferri]

12 hours ago, Paulo Scaldaferri said:

Cactus updated… only 20 degrees??

Now updated to 236 degrees, makes much more sense…