MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Looking at it like that is quite stunning; it's almost like there's a wave traveling from beyond the limb to 3296, triggering the huge filament eruption, then 3297, and then finally 3296. At least it sure looks like those were indeed responsible for those CMEs then, so maybe we'll get some more geomagnetic activity in a few days if we're lucky. do you think a glancing blow or something more? im bad at reading lasco 36 minutes ago, mozy said: This region has not had a delta yet im sorry, i mistook it for the other 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 5, 2023 Author Share Posted May 5, 2023 15 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: do you think a glancing blow or something more? im bad at reading lasco I'm still not that great at it myself, at least not separating out different eruptions close in time; but looking at the imagery Calder posted it definitely looks like at least one of the two eruptions (first from 3297 and then from 3296) right after the filament eruption produced a halo with a significant Earth-directed component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calder Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 21 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Looking at it like that is quite stunning; it's almost like there's a wave traveling from beyond the limb to 3296, triggering the huge filament eruption, then 3297, and then finally 3296. At least it sure looks like those were indeed responsible for those CMEs then, so maybe we'll get some more geomagnetic activity in a few days if we're lucky. That’s exactly what I was thinking. Looked like a wave that travels across the disk. Hopefully we get something exciting from this, and maybe there’ll be more to come once these regions are in an earth oriented location. 🤞 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 5, 2023 Author Share Posted May 5, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Calder said: Hopefully we get something exciting from this, and maybe there’ll be more to come once these regions are in an earth oriented location. DeepFlareNet still computing 100% chance of X-flare, aww yeah. I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords. Edited May 5, 2023 by Philalethes typo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Well, great, now there probably are 2 CMEs from the 2 different regions. STEREO A might fall around 60 hours travel time possibly, and bulk hit. I'll need to compare to SOHO when the needed imagery comes in in maybe 2 or 3 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, Philalethes said: I'm still not that great at it myself, at least not separating out different eruptions close in time; but looking at the imagery Calder posted it definitely looks like at least one of the two eruptions (first from 3297 and then from 3296) right after the filament eruption produced a halo with a significant Earth-directed component. 8 minutes ago, Calder said: That’s exactly what I was thinking. Looked like a wave that travels across the disk. Hopefully we get something exciting from this, and maybe there’ll be more to come once these regions are in an earth oriented location. 🤞 11 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Well, great, now there probably are 2 CMEs from the 2 different regions. STEREO A might fall around 60 hours travel time possibly, and bulk hit. I'll need to compare to SOHO when the needed imagery comes in in maybe 2 or 3 hours. i doubt a bulk hit, what makes you think that? im so confused lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: i doubt a bulk hit, what makes you think that? STEREO A is a little bit closer than we would be. For us, to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Just now, Jesterface23 said: STEREO A is a little bit closer than we would be. For us, to be determined. which CME are you speaking of exactly? Sorry, so much going on im getting it all confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: which CME are you speaking of exactly? Sorry, so much going on im getting it all confused. Regions 3297 and 3296 both launched CMEs around the same time, so it is either one of them or both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Regions 3297 and 3296 both launched CMEs around the same time, so it is either one of them or both of them. nasa did a run already https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa_data_tree/model/heliosphere/wsa-enlil-cone/animation-cme-density/2023/05/20230505_111000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 I think we will fall somewhere right on the very edge of the main bulk. I'll go with a preliminary arrival time at L1 of 2023/05/07 23:00Z with a chance of error +-10.5 hours. I'd guess only G2 max. Finally Friday, so maybe we can get another better CME heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 5, 2023 Author Share Posted May 5, 2023 I was about to say that it looked relatively impulsive this time, but the last image on SUVI makes me think otherwise, definitely looks like another ejection. Flux stopped falling and started rising again, what a fakeout; bamboozled again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Philalethes said: I was about to say that it looked relatively impulsive this time, but the last image on SUVI makes me think otherwise, definitely looks like another ejection. Flux stopped falling and started rising again, what a fakeout; bamboozled again. Yh there is a CME, I also got faked out 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, mozy said: Yh there is a CME, I also got faked out 😅 east directed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 5, 2023 Author Share Posted May 5, 2023 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: east directed? Looks like it; as in Solar "east", to the left on the imagery. Time to wait for LASCO again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Philalethes said: I was about to say that it looked relatively impulsive this time, but the last image on SUVI makes me think otherwise, definitely looks like another ejection. Flux stopped falling and started rising again, what a fakeout; bamboozled again. I actually had a dream about this region & your AI prediction bot last night lol, and so far It's scarily accurate, it sounds "unreal" but I dreamt of waking up to my phone vibrating that there was a flare and it was only an M 1.2 so I went to bed again & when I woke up again in the dream there had apparently been an X-flare shortly after. Now if this exact scenario happens outside the dream then I'll get scared 😅 I highly doubt it though lmao Edited May 5, 2023 by mozy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 5, 2023 Author Share Posted May 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, mozy said: I actually had a dream about this region & your AI prediction bot last night lol, and so far It's scarily accurate, it sounds "unreal" but I dreamt of waking up to my phone vibrating that there was a flare and it was only an M 1.2 so I went to bed again & when I woke up again in the dream there had apparently been an X-flare shortly after. Now if this exact scenario happens outside the dream then I'll get scared 😅 I highly doubt it though lmao Ah, yes, throw some prophetic dreams in the mix to counterbalance the AI; excellent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Ah, yes, throw some prophetic dreams in the mix to counterbalance the AI; excellent. Nasa has 2 similar models for flare prediction, theyre not that good though.. i talked about them a few times on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 5, 2023 Author Share Posted May 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Nasa has 2 similar models for flare prediction, theyre not that good though.. i talked about them a few times on here It's settled, then: NASA should hire more prophetic dreamers instead of wasting their time on bad AI; maybe they can get to recruit mozy if they're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, Philalethes said: It's settled, then: NASA should hire more prophetic dreamers instead of wasting their time on bad AI; maybe they can get to recruit mozy if they're lucky. Hey! Let's wait for that X-flare first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carrington 2025 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 The interaction between 3293 and 3296 is incredible my buddy is watching for the negative polarities to connect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tormentius Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 I noticed that this region’s probabilities for an X flare have fallen to nothing and that its M flare ones are much lower as well. But the Solar synoptic map hasn’t been updated since yesterday. How is this determined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, Carrington 2025 said: The interaction between 3293 and 3296 is incredible my buddy is watching for the negative polarities to connect regions dont merge, or what do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 (edited) My forecast with this sunspot is 45 percent chance of M solar flare between 1 and 3 but for an M5 flare 10 to 6 percent I think Edited May 5, 2023 by Isatsuki San Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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