MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 kp7 sounds very over optimistic for a glancing blow imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 5, 2023 Author Share Posted May 5, 2023 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: kp7 sounds very over optimistic for a glancing blow imo Latest model here seems to predict more than just a glancing blow from these rapid-fire eruptions, with a relatively high plasma density arriving on 08/05 (Monday). Also, annoying that LASCO appears to skip from around 15:00 to now, doesn't show the last potential eruption there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 (edited) Hace 3 horas, MinYoongi dijo: kp7 suena demasiado optimista para un golpe de refilón en mi opinión It seems that if he is going to give an indirect blow because epam, the cme is beginning to be detected 36 minutes ago, Philalethes said: El último modelo aquí parece predecir más que un simple golpe de estas erupciones de fuego rápido, con una densidad de plasma relativamente alta que llegará el 05/08 (lunes). Además, es molesto que LASCO parezca saltar desde alrededor de las 15:00 hasta ahora, no muestra la última erupción potencial allí. And if that last eruption has the potential to give that indirect blow Edited May 5, 2023 by Isatsuki San Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 55 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Latest model here seems to predict more than just a glancing blow from these rapid-fire eruptions, with a relatively high plasma density arriving on 08/05 (Monday). Also, annoying that LASCO appears to skip from around 15:00 to now, doesn't show the last potential eruption there. noa predicts g1-g2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 5, 2023 Author Share Posted May 5, 2023 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: noa predicts g1-g2 Seems like a reasonable prediction to me, just wanted to mention that the model I was looking at had us taking a more direct hit from at least some of the eruptions. It's better to be a bit conservative when there's still uncertainty, so G1 and G2 seems fair; but I wouldn't preclude the possibility of G3 either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tormentius Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 It seems this region might be losing some of its potency. I’m just going by what she says. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 5, 2023 Author Share Posted May 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, Tormentius said: It seems this region might be losing some of its potency. I’m just going by what she says. Any thoughts? Overall it has definitely been weakening, probably due to releasing a lot of energy via flares and CMEs; but I wouldn't be so quick to write off that large anti-Hale region yet, the fact that it's still there seems to indicate that there's still something about the field there that doesn't quite match up with the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calder Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 (edited) Does anyone know if this is considered a sigmoid? Looks like one to me since it’s an S-shaped structure in the corona. There was one like this yesterday a few hours before the M flare. If it is, it might be an indication that another flare could happen soon. Update: About an hour after posting this, it produced a C6 flare. It’s interesting to see how it interacted with 3297. I wonder if it would’ve been a stronger flare, had it been more isolated. Edited May 6, 2023 by Calder Added update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tormentius Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 43 minutes ago, Calder said: Does anyone know if this is considered a sigmoid? Looks like one to me since it’s an S-shaped structure in the corona. There was one like this yesterday a few hours before the M flare. If it is, it might be an indication that another flare could happen soon. I thought there was no way to tell whether a flare was coming or not. At least one that hadn’t been figured out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 53 minutes ago, Tormentius said: I thought there was no way to tell whether a flare was coming or not. At least one that hadn’t been figured out yet Certain events or structures can give greater likelihood for activity, as they have precipitated other events and structures in the past. From SDO imagery in the last few days, I would continue to recommend following it closely as well. Such regions produce interesting bursts of activity much more often by virtue of complexity that other regions tend not to reach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calder Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 56 minutes ago, Tormentius said: I thought there was no way to tell whether a flare was coming or not. At least one that hadn’t been figured out yet True, it’s not a guarantee. It’s more of a way to gauge the likelihood of an eruption. Seeing a sigmoid increases the chance a flare, kinda like how a delta classification can increase the chance of a flare. I’m no expert on them though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 Don't think we'll get to experience the potential of this region, seems to be slightly decaying by the minute 😕 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 6, 2023 Author Share Posted May 6, 2023 4 hours ago, mozy said: Don't think we'll get to experience the potential of this region, seems to be slightly decaying by the minute 😕 Background flux down to B-levels now, RIP. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 (edited) It's trying to grow again, let's see how it develops this time.. Edit: And just like that it seems we might possibly have another earth directed CME going off at the moment, X-ray flux still rising slowly. Edited May 7, 2023 by mozy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 7, 2023 Author Share Posted May 7, 2023 29 minutes ago, mozy said: It's trying to grow again, let's see how it develops this time.. Definitely looks like it's popping. Interesting how it still did this out of nowhere, even though it looked like the region had mostly deteriorated. Going to keep an eye out for these anti-Hale regions in the future, that's for sure. Looks like a sigmoid to me: Not easy to see when I've drawn on it, but looking at it on SUVI it should be possible to make out what I mean. Maybe I'm just imagining things, but they are supposed to be associated with explosive events if I'm not mistaken. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Definitivamente parece que está explotando. Es interesante cómo todavía hizo esto de la nada, a pesar de que parecía que la región se había deteriorado en su mayoría. Estaré atento a estas regiones anti-Hale en el futuro, eso es seguro. A mí me parece un sigmoide: No es fácil de ver cuando lo he dibujado, pero al mirarlo en SUVI debería ser posible entender lo que quiero decir. Tal vez solo estoy imaginando cosas, pero se supone que están asociadas con eventos explosivos si no me equivoco. I just tell him, awwwwww he's taking his last breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MZPL Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Looks like something's got released? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 7, 2023 Author Share Posted May 7, 2023 Looks like clear dimming, both from the imagery and from here. And it definitely looks like we're taking some of that eruption straight to the dome. Based on the forecast of the last CMEs it also seems like there's a lot of clear space, so maybe we'll see this one arriving faster than otherwise. I guess we'll have to see what happens on LASCO first, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Just now, Philalethes said: Based on the forecast of the last CMEs it also seems like there's a lot of clear space, so maybe we'll see this one arriving faster than otherwise. what do you mean by that exactly? ah, you probably mean the other cme's cleared the way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 A C-Class flare releasing the M-Class flare and its CME. A decent eruption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Just now, Jesterface23 said: A C-Class flare releasing the M-Class flare and its CME. A decent eruption im confused a c class flare releasing the m class? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, MZPL said: ¿Parece que se ha liberado algo? I have good and bad news, in goes-16 you can see a filament of the spots coming loose but it seems to be very weak and not very noticeable although still, the flare is still going on, so we have to see lasco, but for now, I think it would just be a weak cme little notorious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Just now, Isatsuki San said: I have good and bad news, in goes-16 you can see a filament of the spots coming loose but it seems to be very weak and not very noticeable although still, the flare is still going on, so we have to see lasco, but for now, I think it would just be a weak cme little notorious goes 16 Suvi which wavelength? because the dimming looks earth directed (but im not a pro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted May 7, 2023 Author Share Posted May 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: what do you mean by that exactly? ah, you probably mean the other cme's cleared the way Yep, exactly. Looking at the last model around this time the space there looks quite sparse: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: goes 16 Suvi which wavelength? because the dimming looks earth directed (but im not a pro) I don't know where it is, but this little room is also a meteorological satellite of Argentina, so I don't know where it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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