Unspecified geomagnetic activity

[Parabolic]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

I think she meant based on initial impact what to expect in the comming hours  

Ah, I managed to over explain again sorry 😅 my guess is KP between -4 to 6

[Isatsuki San]

I was honestly surprised by this cme

[Jesterface23]

3 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

I was honestly surprised by this cme

I think that goes for everyone watching space weather right now lol

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

I think that goes for everyone watching space weather right now lol

how come it was mismodelled so much?

[Isatsuki San]

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

I think that goes for everyone watching space weather right now lol

hahaha, I wonder if it was really frebero's cme 7 that hit just today?

[Jesterface23]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

how come it was mismodelled so much?

All we see is a 2D image of a 3D object and I'll put it up to that

[Parabolic]

G1 storming is already expected 🙂

[MinYoongi]

31 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

All we see is a 2D image of a 3D object and I'll put it up to that

Yeah.. Well, at least some impact  

[Drax Spacex]

1 hour ago, Isatsuki San said:

I was honestly surprised by this cme

AR3575 was at coordinates S37W88 on Feb 7.  That non-halo CME was reasonably dismissed as not Earth-directed.  But, here we are.

[Jesterface23]

If ACE is correct, the velocities are near 700km/s now. So it would make sense with this being a CME/SIR arrival of the CME from the 7th.

[Isatsuki San]

6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Si ACE está en lo cierto, las velocidades ahora están cerca de los 700 km/s. Por lo tanto, tendría sentido que se tratara de una llegada CME / SIR de la CME a partir del día 7.

That wouldn't be something fast for that cme, or is it normal and if it is?

[Jesterface23]

7 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

That wouldn't be something fast for that cme, or is it normal and if it is?

We would mostly be in the HSS now. It would explain the fairly high 475km/s shock arrival velocities as well as it was being pushed.

[Drax Spacex]

Does anyone know the origin of the CME seen in LASCO 2024/02/12 07:00?  It looks like at least a partial halo with charged particle emission.

Edited February 12 by Drax Spacex
charged particle

[Philalethes]

10 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said:

Does anyone know the origin of the CME seen in LASCO 2024/02/12 07:00?  It looks like at least a partial halo with charged particle emission.

So far we've been discussing it in the 3575 thread and assuming it originated from there.

So the halo is most likely on the other side, sadly.

[Ingolf]

Greetings from Germany, I read already for a long long time your really professional discussions. But now I have to ask a question. Why is the farside of the sun not that much important for the space weather organisation's? Is there no way to collect better informations about the farside? 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

45 minuten geleden, Ingolf zei:

Greetings from Germany, I read already for a long long time your really professional discussions. But now I have to ask a question. Why is the farside of the sun not that much important for the space weather organisation's? Is there no way to collect better informations about the farside? 

the main reason is that the farside doesn't really affect Earth and thus isn't interesting enough to get the funding for such missions. Other thing is that it's difficult to put a satellite there in a fixed position (most satellites are in an orbit around Earth or at a Lagrange point in space) that would require a lot of fuel to achieve that (Stereo-A and B were also not fixed and only saw a portion of the farside but they kept moving and now STEREO isn't in a good place anymore to even see the farside). Stereo A/B where the only exception but got the funding because it was useful to 3D model CME's when you look at them sideways from left and right to better predict CME's and their distribution towards Earth. More recently we had Solar orbiter but the objective was way different. And I don't think there are new missions planned for a farside satellite just because of my first point. 

[Philalethes]

59 minutes ago, Ingolf said:

Greetings from Germany, I read already for a long long time your really professional discussions. But now I have to ask a question. Why is the farside of the sun not that much important for the space weather organisation's? Is there no way to collect better informations about the farside? 

Greetings, and welcome; glad to see you jump into the discussion.

The far side is absolutely considered important by most people who study Solar physics and space weather, and many professionals and amateurs alike have been clamoring for more coverage of it for a long time. It was certainly among the motivations of the STEREO missions (but not primarily, as Sander points out), and data from other craft like SolO (Solar Orbiter) and PSP (Parker Solar Probe) have also been of great interest (but were also not primarily intended to study the far side in particular).

The problem so far has mostly been the limitations of how we'd have to go about doing it, which probably has made it too costly relative to the benefits so far (which hopefully will change in the future as technology improves and interest in Solar physics and space weather increases).

In general there are two ways to go about it, which is either to send craft to orbit, or to place craft at the more stationary Lagrange points (like L1, where we have a number of craft). In the former case you can either keep the orbits relatively close to Earth orbit like with the STEREO missions, which makes them orbit very slowly relative to Earth, or closer, in which case it's harder to achieve more stable orbits, and thus you might end up with irregular coverage.

In the latter case the problem is that the Lagrange point exactly opposite Earth, L3, which would have a perfect view of the far side, would not be able to directly communicate with Earth via the DSN (deep space network) like the ones at L1 and L2; as such it would have to relay the information via other craft, the best option probably being satellites stationed at L4 and/or L5, but as you can see this gets complicated and not so straightforward, and as of yet we don't even have any craft stationed at the latter points. There is the Vigil mission planned by ESA though, which is planned to be stationed at L5 and thus provide us with coverage from 60 degrees behind us in orbit, which in and of itself will be a major improvement and allow us to see active regions approaching before they appear from our perspective.

So ultimately it's not that it's not of interest, but that we're currently still somewhat limited when it comes to technology and resources. Perhaps it's mostly the resource part that is the limit, as I bet we could probably achieve it pretty fast if we focused more on scientific endeavors as a species than a lot of things I personally consider mindless nonsense, but that's the situation as of now. Hopefully we'll get there at some point.

Edited February 12 by Philalethes
typo, clarification

[Ingolf]

21 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Greetings, and welcome; glad to see you jump into the discussion.

The far side is absolutely considered important by most people who study Solar physics and space weather, and many professionals and amateurs alike have been clamoring for more coverage of it for a long time. It was certainly among the motivations of the STEREO missions (but not primarily, as Sander points out), and data from other craft like SolO (Solar Orbiter) and PSP (Parker Solar Probe) have also been of great interest (but were also not primarily intended to study the far side in particular).

The problem so far has mostly been the limitations of how we'd have to go about doing it, which probably has made it too costly relative to the benefits so far (which hopefully will change in the future as technology improves and interest in Solar physics and space weather increases).

In general there are two ways to go about it, which is either to send craft to orbit, or to place craft at the more stationary Lagrange points (like L1, where we have a number of craft). In the former case you can either keep the orbits relatively close to Earth orbit like with the STEREO missions, which makes them orbit very slowly relative to Earth, or closer, in which case it's harder to achieve more stable orbits, and thus you might end up with irregular coverage.

In the latter case the problem is that the Lagrange point exactly opposite Earth, L3, which would have a perfect view of the far side, would not be able to directly communicate with Earth via the DSN (deep space network) like the ones at L1 and L2; as such it would have to relay the information via other craft, the best option probably being satellites stationed at L4 and/or L5, but as you can see this gets complicated and not so straightforward, and as of yet we don't even have any craft stationed at the latter points. There is the Vigil mission planned by ESA though, which is planned to be stationed at L5 and thus provide us with coverage from 60 degrees behind us in orbit, which in and of itself will be a major improvement and allow us to see active regions approaching before they appear from our perspective.

So ultimately it's not that it's not of interest, but that we're currently still somewhat limited when it comes to technology and resources. Perhaps it's mostly the resource part that is the limit, as I bet we could probably achieve it pretty fast if we focused more on scientific endeavors as a species than a lot of things I personally consider mindless nonsense, but that's the situation as of now. Hopefully we'll get there at some point.

Thank you both so much for your time to explain the situation. The Vigil Mission is what I hoped to read. 60 % is better than none. My thoughts were exactly what you explained, it would be so much better to see incoming regions earlier. Hopefully it will be done one day, probably something bad must happen before people will work united on a project. Thanks again to you both, I have to grab my gear now, still believe that there will be something to see tonight... 

[Philalethes]

2 minutes ago, Ingolf said:

Thank you both so much for your time to explain the situation. The Vigil Mission is what I hoped to read. 60 % is better than none. My thoughts were exactly what you explained, it would be so much better to see incoming regions earlier. Hopefully it will be done one day, probably something bad must happen before people will work united on a project. Thanks again to you both, I have to grab my gear now, still believe that there will be something to see tonight... 

Yeah, that will be great whenever we can get it into orbit. Just for clarification it would be 60° behind us in orbit, so it wouldn't lead to 60% coverage; it would be seeing 120° that we already see, and 60° that we currently don't see, which would mean we'd now have a total coverage of 240°, for a total of ~67% of the entire surface, up from the ~50% we're currently seeing.

The mission is currently planned to launch at the end of 2029, but there are almost always delays and such; it was initially planned to be launched in the "mid 2020s", so it's been delayed from that already. Maybe it's simply because they want to avoid potential Solar activity that could take it out, which will likely be greatly elevated in the years ahead. Hopefully we'll have it in place for SC26 at least.

[Justanerd]

The magnetometers have been going off the rails over the past several hours - kiruna and stackplot euro are wild - what is the reason for these spikes in the readings?

[helios]

Bz is negative since several hours, likely due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs.
But it's not really wild yet.

[Justanerd]

48 minutes ago, helios said:

Bz is negative since several hours, likely due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs.
But it's not really wild yet.

Apparently there was something else going on in Europe because the stackplot has been calibrated - kiruna however still shows activity higher than I’ve ever seen 🤷‍♂️

[MinYoongi]

40 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

Apparently there was something else going on in Europe because the stackplot has been calibrated - kiruna however still shows activity higher than I’ve ever seen 🤷‍♂️

Kiruna is normal? not even G1 or anything same with stackplot i dont really see anything weird there?

maybe @Vancanneyt Sander can help you more

45 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

Apparently there was something else going on in Europe because the stackplot has been calibrated

can you explain this further?

[Justanerd]

30 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Kiruna is normal? not even G1 or anything same with stackplot i dont really see anything weird there?

maybe @Vancanneyt Sander can help you more

can you explain this further?

I wish I could explain it but I didn’t screenshot it so… on stackplot all the values had gone whack lol and kiruna the jump to +300 looked really weird - I’ll settle for “it was just your imagination “ since I don’t have proof 🤷‍♂️

[Nathan Majors]

Is that cme that was supposed to hit us on the 14