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Unspecified geomagnetic activity


Isatsuki San
Message added by Sam Warfel,

Use this thread to discuss any minor questions or unspecified geomagnetic activity. 

For discussion of expected inbound CMEs, or noticeable geomagnetic storms, please create new threads (“X2 CME prediction”, “G3 storming”)

Thank you!

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  • 2 weeks later...

I'm replying to this only because I understand a little bit about Geomagnetic Storms. One of my hobbies is "high voltage" Enthusiast. So Electrical magnetic fields, pulses, plasma and all that are just one part of me.  So back to the topic of Geomagnetic Activy. Going back to the Carrington Event "CE" one can pressume that the "CE" occured due to their lacking technologies we have today? Observing most of the Suns historical impacts with earth, I think a G3, or predicted G3 had impacted earth sometime in the past. Now heres my question. Protecting our main vehicles ecu with Farraday cages, removing the battery. I've made a HHO powered motor to run a generator. I have actioned all the above for a just in case scenario.

Do members here feel I'm over thinking things or taking the right approach?  

Edited by kokonutcreme
Forgot the scale for Geomagnetic storms sorry
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6 hours ago, kokonutcreme said:

I'm replying to this only because I understand a little bit about Geomagnetic Storms. One of my hobbies is "high voltage" Enthusiast. So Electrical magnetic fields, pulses, plasma and all that are just one part of me.  So back to the topic of Geomagnetic Activy. Going back to the Carrington Event "CE" one can pressume that the "CE" occured due to their lacking technologies we have today? Observing most of the Suns historical impacts with earth, I think a G3, or predicted G3 had impacted earth sometime in the past. Now heres my question. Protecting our main vehicles ecu with Farraday cages, removing the battery. I've made a HHO powered motor to run a generator. I have actioned all the above for a just in case scenario.

I'd say questions about geomagnetic activity in general are perfectly fine for this thread, even though it's mostly been used to discuss ongoing bouts of activity for the most part.

As for the question, I guess I'm not sure exactly what you're asking here; the Carrington event itself didn't happen because of us having or lacking certain technologies, as it originated with Solar activity beyond our control. Perhaps you're asking about the impact it had on telegraph wires back then, in which case it's true to a certain extent that the damage to such wires happened because they didn't have the technology to account for the so-called geomagnetically induced currents (GICs); even today some parts of grids might still be vulnerable to this in case of such an extremely strong storm, but after multiple encounters with strong storms over the past decades most modern grids actively take measures to account for such currents being a possibility, so it remains to be seen what the impact of such a storm will actually be when one ends up hitting us again, which might not happen until in many decades.

As for a G3, I'm not sure why you mention that specifically, but that's relatively minor storming compared to a Carrington-class event, and we've seen G3 a few times this cycle already, even G4. The strongest events of all are really a class of its own, G5, which is a large step up from G4 specifically to denote a class of really extreme activity.

6 hours ago, kokonutcreme said:

Do members here feel I'm over thinking things or taking the right approach?  

I don't think that's the right approach at all. As far as I'm aware geomagnetic activity results in very large-scale electric fields being induced, so immediate electric effects primarily occur over long distances, which is why telegraph wires were affected. In the New York Railroad Storm of 1921 similar happened, with telegraph wires and attached telegraph equipment being damaged, but more localized electrical equipment remained largely unaffected if I remember correctly.

So as far as I understand a Faraday cage wouldn't really do anything at all in the case of a geomagnetic storm.

Edited by Philalethes
typo
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Always good to learn more about what I'm getting into. I'm just putting my shoes on, so a long time before I'm even walking. Thank you very much. After thinking about what I had written I was purely asking the question whether or not "I need to protect my electrical equipment?" and yes my hobbies are no match to science. 

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10 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

I'm not sure which CME it would be. There was a CME very late on the 11th which seems too late and another very late on the 12th which seems too early. Unless both of those CMEs have arrived a few hours apart, maybe that makes sense.

I think the first impact was the former at least. As mentioned above I think that was the very faint one that looked really slow, ~84 hours of transit time would yield an average transit speed of ~500 km/s, which would check out fairly well with a speed on arrival of ~400 km/s. Not sure if there was another impact or not, could just be turbulence in the sheath or something else that has interfered, there's been a lot of different things going on lately. Can't really say any of this for sure though.

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11 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

Well it seems that another cme is going to impact, I wonder what cme it will beimage.png.ce88a078d97a199d16cc2e0a7111dde5.png

Perhaps that's the second CME mentioned by Jesterface above? Looking at the Enlil model there seems to have been several small bursts associated with the first one, so maybe everything up until now was from that. Hard to say at this point, interplanetary space is looking messy.

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On 12/15/2023 at 6:04 PM, Philalethes said:

Perhaps that's the second CME mentioned by Jesterface above? Looking at the Enlil model there seems to have been several small bursts associated with the first one, so maybe everything up until now was from that. Hard to say at this point, interplanetary space is looking messy.

So that’s not part of the x2.8 CME?

21 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said:

And now we're out of solar wind data

Yeah somehow every day data outages at the same time ..

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How can you tell it will probably shift around 30 from now?

Or do you just mean the normal figure of the bz right now and about an hour ahead? 😅

7 minuten geleden, hamateur 1953 zei:

Don’t know exactly what this mess is, probably a straggler but in about 30 minutes the bz should shift south again.  For how long is anyone’s guess but a nice window perhaps.  

 

Edited by Malisha Reuvekamp
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23 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Don’t know exactly what this mess is, probably a straggler but in about 30 minutes the bz should shift south again.  For how long is anyone’s guess but a nice window perhaps.  

G2 storm now Northern Hemisphere G1 Southern Hemisphere possible tardy arrival of expected CME?

Aurora alert given for Southern Australia 

N.

Edited by Newbie
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Looks like it.   About a half hour of neg bz coming our way very soon 

8 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

How can you tell it will probably shift around 30 from now?

Or do you just mean the normal figure of the bz right now and about an hour ahead? 😅

 

I’m on our page in the Aurora subsection watching it evolve in real time.  We have a fairly good prediction as far as bt/bz goes.  And seems to play out very close to reality.  The solar wind speed is low however.  Was very surprised by this tbh 

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  • 3 weeks later...
8 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

The red line on the epam also reacted a bit. Someone said the minimal touch of the X flare hit us already this morning around 5 utc?

I read there were some tiny cme's from 30th en 31st possibly heading for earth, so maybe one of those?

The little EPAMp spike looks to align with a CME arrival.

We will need orbit data to figure this one out. A CME from the 30th shouldn't have had the velocities for the arrival early this morning. The arrival this morning could have been from a filament eruption on the 31st and this new arrival could be the X5 CME arrival. Or there could have been some other CME mixed in. It should just come down to the satellite orbit data to see which direction both CMEs came from.

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