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Unspecified geomagnetic activity


Isatsuki San
Message added by Sam Warfel,

Use this thread to discuss any minor questions or unspecified geomagnetic activity. 

For discussion of expected inbound CMEs, or noticeable geomagnetic storms, please create new threads (“X2 CME prediction”, “G3 storming”)

Thank you!

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I was thinking more along the lines of the expected arrival times. The Oct 31 CME was supposed to get here late yesterday according to the NASA and NOAA predictions but seems to have arrived about 12 hours early. WIth the CH pushing the solar wind speed up, I would be really surprised to see that CME get here almost 24 hours late. I could always be wrong, but I think the early arrival scenario is a better fit.

3 hours ago, David Silver said:

Do the breaks or dips in the KP relate to breaks in various impacts in your interpretation? In my “read” of the data, 1st KP7 was result of previous flare, 2nd KP7 is result of filament impact? NOAA Enlil shows the solar wind arriving Nov 7.

IMG_1157.jpeg

 

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4 hours ago, David Silver said:

Do the breaks or dips in the KP relate to breaks in various impacts in your interpretation? In my “read” of the data, 1st KP7 was result of previous flare, 2nd KP7 is result of filament impact? NOAA Enlil shows the solar wind arriving Nov 7.

The CME from the 2nd arrived early on the 5th and CME from the 3rd arrrived mid day on the 5th. We are maybe 12 hours into a CH HSS as I write this. Also in the image, the middle uses the Kp index. The others use the K index.

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18 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

The CME from the 2nd arrived early on the 5th and CME from the 3rd arrrived mid day on the 5th. We are maybe 12 hours into a CH HSS as I write this. Also in the image, the middle uses the Kp index. The others use the K index.

And how can you tell when we went in the CH HSS? When I look back about 30 hours I can maybe tell by density drop and temperature drop, and since then lower and more stable strength?

20231107_183329.jpg

Edited by Malisha Reuvekamp
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5 hours ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

And how can you tell when we went in the CH HSS? When I look back about 30 hours I can maybe tell by density drop and temperature drop, and since then lower and more stable strength?

You need to switch to ACE in the Series tab at the bottom then it should become clearer. DSCOVR has a problemed faraday cup, so the solar wind messurements are pretty messed up. ACE has its issues, but it is better than DSCOVR at this point

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6 minuten geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

You need to switch to ACE in the Series tab at the bottom then it should become clearer. DSCOVR has a problemed faraday cup, so the solar wind messurements are pretty messed up. ACE has its issues, but it is better than DSCOVR at this point

Thank you, that's why it's looks so strange.👍

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I'm thinking, how did that end as a G3 storm. After seeing results from Europe, this was definitely typical for G4 show. March 2015 or April 2023, two G4 storms, weren't even close what we had.

(I'm thinking that next time I shouldn't actually take G into account like we shouldn't with Kp, it's too dynamic and individual)

Edited by libmar96
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Indeed it was an unusual event.  I saw large deflections reported on SWL from Victoria BC Canada during a period when Kiruna was hard positive bz. And usually Victoria BC barely wiggles when the entire US is at Kp seven or eight. Yet these were very noticeable.  And we were only at Kp five officially. So although we were under heavy cloud cover, I have little doubt good aurora should have been visible in Eastern Washington.  
Edit. I recall Sam our moderator even got some photos a year or two ago during a supposedly positive bz.  I don’t recall the hemispheric power, but I remember being amazed by his lucky catch!!

Edited by hamateur 1953
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9 hours ago, Sam Warfel said:

With the Bz pinned at +25 to +30, the HP fell to 13, before the aurora eventually faded away at 43N in WI.

image.thumb.jpeg.e96df41624ee2fb0b16a767c6ffb3455.jpeg

Too bad the weather didn't cooperate here in MN. If it wasn't for work I'd have driven a few hours to see the show.

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Most of our tools are useful for sure, on occasion we all seem to get some characteristics with the storms that seem inexplicable.  Like the good fortune of seeing Aurora when you otherwise wouldn’t have expected much.  It’s usually the other way around unfortunately!🤣 I have found the predictive OVATION tool to be pretty darn good. Only would like a bit more lead time…. Haha. 

On 11/7/2023 at 4:06 PM, libmar96 said:

I'm thinking, how did that end as a G3 storm. After seeing results from Europe, this was definitely typical for G4 show. March 2015 or April 2023, two G4 storms, weren't even close what we had.

(I'm thinking that next time I shouldn't actually take G into account like we shouldn't with Kp, it's too dynamic and individual)

 

Edited by hamateur 1953
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7 uren geleden, Isatsuki San zei:

I have a question, where is the speed of the solar wind that is 500 km per second?
I don't see any corona hole, nor a proton rise and also the bt is at 2 nt

Coronal hole effects can last for days, so we’re still in the declining phase of the coronal hole influence.

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2 uren geleden, kansasaurorachaser zei:

so what's going on with the CME.  did it miss or is it slower than thought?  

CME arrival times are hard to predict, so from the predicted arrival time you can have a + and - 6 hour window from the predicted arrival time. So like for every CME arrival it’s a waiting game… 

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The power of the Bt of 5nT shock arrival heh. Negative Bz is a good start, but it may come down the the flux rope later in the day and into the 13th if there is much of one.

3rd forecast in a row where my second and only other option was within an hour of the actual arrival, /12 06:21Z. Getting some good data at least.

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