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Unspecified geomagnetic activity

Isatsuki San

By Isatsuki San
in Geomagnetic activity

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Sam Warfel
Message added by Sam Warfel,

Use this thread to discuss any minor questions or unspecified geomagnetic activity. 

For discussion of expected inbound CMEs, or noticeable geomagnetic storms, please create new threads (“X2 CME prediction”, “G3 storming”)

Thank you!

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tniickck
tniickck

so Lucky i am at the country side with my camera G3 now

Malisha Reuvekamp
Malisha Reuvekamp

It went nuts! Im in the Netherlands. 52.3 ° It went so strong, my raw camera settings I had practiced with last 2 times, didnt add up anymore 🙈🤣 Wow what a night! Glad I went out... 

Malisha Reuvekamp
Malisha Reuvekamp

I was soaking wet and missed all the best of it! So I thought,  because much later clouds went away a bit + the aurora got brighter again and even very briefly in color again with the naked eye, rest

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Justanerd Enthusiast

Justanerd

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

looks like it will stay negative, is this a flux rope? SWL said on facebook its due to a filament eruption but i dont know which one to be honest so i dont know what to expect (a core etc) maybe @Jesterface23 knows it :) 

It is supposed to be from the filament eruption east of 3592 on Wednesday around 836UTC - #11 on the current list on swl 

Edited by Justanerd
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MinYoongi Grand Master

MinYoongi

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

It is from the filament eruption east of 3592 on Wednesday around 836 or 936 UTC 

thank you. so is it a full on hit or glancing impact? I did not watch for a few days and missed it it seems 😕 will look at SDO at home :) !

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Justanerd Enthusiast

Justanerd

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

thank you. so is it a full on hit or glancing impact? I did not watch for a few days and missed it it seems 😕 will look at SDO at home :) !

It was supposed to be a glancing blow but judging from the geomagnetic data I’ve seen thus far it’s a pretty solid impact 🤷‍♂️ just very slow.

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MinYoongi Grand Master

MinYoongi

Posted
Posted
Just now, Justanerd said:

It was supposed to be a glancing blow but judging from the geomagnetic data I’ve seen thus far it’s a pretty solid impact 🤷‍♂️ just very slow.

yeah true. thats why im wondering if we're seing a flux rope with a certain alignment or if the speed is needed for geomagnetic storming

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libmar96 Contributor

libmar96

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

but isnt the south component enough for storming? 

Of course it is, but higher speed would get a more decent view. Bz -15 and such low speed is comparable to Bz -10 and 600 km/s.

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MinYoongi Grand Master

MinYoongi

Posted
Posted
Just now, libmar96 said:

Of course it is, but higher speed would get a more decent view. Bz -15 and such low speed is comparable to Bz -10 and 600 km/s.

oh. didnt know that its convertible like that. thank you

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mozy Mentor

mozy

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

but isnt the south component enough for storming? 

Auroras are not bright in my area whatsoever with this kind of speed, the substorms can be near overhead but can feel very underwhelming.

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MinYoongi Grand Master

MinYoongi

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, mozy said:

Auroras are not bright in my area whatsoever with this kind of speed, the substorms can be near overhead but can feel very underwhelming.

so without the speed upping even with south BZ like this no or little storming will happen? not local, i mean global kp. or will it instead happen at mid latitudes? sorry its unfavorable for you. would it be better if it holds until its dark again?

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Justanerd Enthusiast

Justanerd

Posted
Posted

I’m personally beginning to wonder if AR3590 didn’t send us a gift with that long duration M1.5 - there was a much smaller impact around 130UTC that was more like what I would have expected from the filament eruption of 28 Feb?? The density and force of the impact are puzzling me - I need clarification lol

G1 with KP of -16 

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Justanerd Enthusiast

Justanerd

Posted
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1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

how long will it take for the cme to "move through" ?

Depends on how wide it is - as slow as it is moving I’m hoping for several hours so the lingering effects will still be here come nightfall 😜😂

NOAA has extended the warning/watch until 2359UTC - that would be close to nightfall 

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MinYoongi Grand Master

MinYoongi

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

Depends on how wide it is - as slow as it is moving I’m hoping for several hours so the lingering effects will still be here come nightfall 😜😂

:)  Good luck to you. Im just wondering how long we will see impact

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libmar96 Contributor

libmar96

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

so without the speed upping even with south BZ like this no or little storming will happen? not local, i mean global kp. or will it instead happen at mid latitudes? sorry its unfavorable for you. would it be better if it holds until its dark again?

For me at the border of Poland and Lithuania (54N), low Bz must stay for 60 more minutes to catch the eventual end, because currently I'm waiting for the sunset. Bz currently does everything, speed does not help (and works like a "booster"). The 60-minute average for the left from "Earth" should be taken into account. At 16:00 UT we will have enough data from DSCOVR that say about conditions at 17:15 UT, at which it will be dark enough (because the wind speed is so low, the delay is 73 minutes). If it stays for more, the aurora can stay in the sky longer. If the window ends earlier, the aurora will disappear before it's dark enough.

For the question about Bz+, aurora for my location can happen during positive Bz if only condiditions are met:

- constant Bz at 0 and speed at least 800 km/s (for my calculations that's same for Bz -10 and speed 360 km/s; I'm saying there calculation result of -10 is a minimum for my location to show a decent show)

- the line "Earth" sits in the positive, but because we're talking about moving average for one hour left from "Earth", the past negative Bz might keep doing the effect.

In short, the aurora for mid latitude will start disappearing when Bz goes positive (and doesn't go back) for DSCOVR and that will have an effect 73 mins for us. Start disappearning doesn't mean instant, but 15 minutes after that we'll be using moving average of 45 minutes past negative Bz and 15 minutes upcoming positive Bz. -16 of negative Bz for 45 minutes and 15 minutes of zero is still below -10.

Edited by libmar96
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Drax Spacex Experienced

Drax Spacex

Posted
Posted

Many possibilities as to the source region.  On Feb 28, the largest flare was C5.1, unassigned to any AR, appeared eruptive with arcade, observed at 28/0909Z in the SE quadrant.  You can see a "puff" in AIA 193 imagery.  This may have been a compound event also associated with the CME filament eruption east of 3592.

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MinYoongi Grand Master

MinYoongi

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said:

Many possibilities as to the source region.  On Feb 28, the largest flare was C5.1, unassigned to any AR, appeared eruptive with arcade, observed at 28/0909Z in the SE quadrant.  You can see a "puff" in AIA 193 imagery.  This may have been a compound event also associated with the CME filament eruption east of 3592.

A compound event sounds possible! I did not think of that yet.

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MinYoongi Grand Master

MinYoongi

Posted
Posted

BTW, why are DSCOVR and ACE so different with their data? DSCOVR shows -10, ACE shows -14. 
Dscovr has a whole 20 minutes where it shows positive bz and ace does not. (not the latest dip into positive BZ, you have to manually press "series" and then click on "ace only" or "dscovr only" https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

ace shows -15 and dscovr shows -8.. im confused

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auclectic Apprentice

auclectic

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

BTW, why are DSCOVR and ACE so different with their data? DSCOVR shows -10, ACE shows -14. 
Dscovr has a whole 20 minutes where it shows positive bz and ace does not. (not the latest dip into positive BZ, you have to manually press "series" and then click on "ace only" or "dscovr only" https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

ace shows -15 and dscovr shows -8.. im confused

They're two different satellites, likely just the distance in between them and position in relation to the sun.

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