Unspecified geomagnetic activity

[cgrant26]

Are we seeing an arrival of something at L1 or is DSCOVR having a hiccup?

Edited April 28 by cgrant26

[Jesterface23]

633km/s spike. ACE was having one of its brief moments.

[Parabolic]

3 hours ago, cgrant26 said:

Are we seeing an arrival of something at L1 or is DSCOVR having a hiccup?

 

17 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

633km/s spike. ACE was having one of its brief moments.

Maybe CIR from a CH HSS? Both ACE and DSCOVER have identical wind and mag. data.

[Jesterface23]

33 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

Maybe CIR from a CH HSS? Both ACE and DSCOVER have identical wind and mag. data.

It is a CH HSS, but ACE had the clear bad data with 100km/s over DSCOVR and bad IMF data during the spike. The CIR just about fully ended around 20:00Z.

[SamDieGurke]

Did something arrive here? Bt went up and density had a spike. 

[Jesterface23]

It looked like a SIR arrival possibly caused by 2 CIR interactions.

[Landon Moeller]

Beautiful WNE flux rope at L-1 over the past 20 hours. 
 

See plot here: Flux Rope 5/1/24

[hamateur 1953]

2 hours ago, Landon Moeller said:

Beautiful WNE flux rope at L-1 over the past 20 hours. 
 

See plot here: Flux Rope 5/1/24

Cool, and tornadoes in the heartland today again. Also interesting! 

[Jesterface23]

3 hours ago, Landon Moeller said:

Beautiful WNE flux rope at L-1 over the past 20 hours. 
 

See plot here: Flux Rope 5/1/24

Pretty cool. I guess it would date back to some CME launching late on the 26th or on the 27th.

[Landon Moeller]

A strong CME has struck DSCOVR and ACE.

CME shock

[Jesterface23]

There was a CME on the 29th, and that travel time would pair well with the current velocities.

[MinYoongi]

24 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

There was a CME on the 29th, and that travel time would pair well with the current velocities.

Oh, i guess i missed it. thank you jester! did noaa/nasa miss it too?

Last update states "

A mix of transient and CH HSS effects are likely to lead to variable
geomagnetic responses 02-03 May from quiet periods to active levels.
Dependent upon the 01 May CME transit and path, geomagnetic response
could escalate to active levels later on 04 May, with a chance of G1
(Minor) storm levels. This CME continues to be analyzed for a final
determination of geoeffective potential."

wouldnt 3 days be a bit generous for ~300 kms? 

[Jesterface23]

9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

wouldnt 3 days be a bit generous for ~300 kms?

72 hour travel times can roughly bring up to 475km/s solar wind velocities.

..........

I don't exactly know when the CME launched, but going back to the start of the 29th would be 84 hours with roughly maximum solar wind velocities of 425km/s.

[Philalethes]

This is starting to look fairly good. We'll breeze past Kp4 and get to G1 soon if it continues like this.

Edited May 2 by Philalethes
missing word

[SamDieGurke]

G1 now, didnt even know we had something coming our way lol. Way too early for me to see again though

[AndrewB]

Sharp of Bt from 10 to over 20nT with similar sharp Bz nearly to -20nT is the largest change of parameters since last G4-storm in March. Even during G3 on April 19th total strenght of magnetic field was weaker (but stable for almost day). Unfortunatelly, now we're approaching to northward Bz. End of show? I've hope that is only short-term fluctuactions.

Edited May 2 by AndrewB

[Balerion]

How we even seeing G1 we had no big CME at us or have I miss something here. 

[hamateur 1953]

Mercy. Europe  at kp 5 already. Broad daylight in America.  Will we ever get a break??   A sense of humour is practically mandatory in the CME waiting game.   Even at Kp 7 change can obliterate a show in minutes as I know only too well.  Haha! 

Edited May 2 by hamateur 1953

[Jesterface23]

The Bz near -10nT prior to arrival helped a lot with the negative Bz in the shock/sheath arrival. Though, in the sheath the IMF can change at almost any point.

[Adrian Kobyłecki]

I hope that the parameters will remain the same in the next hour and a half

[cgrant26]

Wow, KP6 and G2 now. That was unexpected. Of course during the day and and long duration rain showers. 🤡

[SamDieGurke]

8 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said:

I hope that the parameters will remain the same in the next hour and a half

Gotta be at least 4 hours for me still. I hope values stay like this for a loooong time. Wish you best of luck with aurora though, hope it doesnt decide to troll now!

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, AndrewB said:

Sharp of Bt from 10 to over 20nT with similar sharp Bz nearly to -20nT is the largest change of parameters since last G4-storm in March. Even during G3 on April 19th total strenght of magnetic field was weaker (but stable for almost day). Unfortunatelly, now we're approaching to northward Bz. End of show? I've hope that is only short-term fluctuactions.

it turned south again. maybe @Landon Moeller can help us figure out if we're seeing a flux rope (and maybe even tell us its orientation) or if this impact is a CH HSS with mushed up CME bits.

i forgot to mention @arjemma and @Jesterface23. theyre great at this too 🙂 

[owenb0576]

G3. Hopefully keeps going until night time for America. Probably not tho

[Landon Moeller]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

it turned south again. maybe @Landon Moeller can help us figure out if we're seeing a flux rope (and maybe even tell us its orientation) or if this impact is a CH HSS with mushed up CME bits.

i forgot to mention @arjemma and @Jesterface23. theyre great at this too 🙂 

No flux rope yet, and probably not for many more hours, given this is a slow CME. Although given the strength, I do expect a flux rope at some point in some capacity.