Unspecified geomagnetic activity

[Malisha Reuvekamp]

8 minuten geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

The little EPAMp spike looks to align with a CME arrival.

We will need orbit data to figure this one out. A CME from the 30th shouldn't have had the velocities for the arrival early this morning. The arrival this morning could have been from a filament eruption on the 31st and this new arrival could be the X5 CME arrival. Or there could have been some other CME mixed in. It should just come down to the satellite orbit data to see which direction both CMEs came from.

Thank you, it's always puzzling which is which. 😂

Where can I find this satellite orbit data by the way? I use cmescoreboard afterwards, but there might be an faster way?

Edited January 3 by Malisha Reuvekamp

[Jesterface23]

1 minute ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

Where can I find this satellite orbit data by the way? I use cmescoreboard afterwards, but there might be an easier way?

I'm not sure if the satellite orbits around L1 are available yet, at least to the public.

[Malisha Reuvekamp]

6 minuten geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

I'm not sure if the satellite orbits around L1 are available yet, at least to the public.

Ah, too bad. 😅 

[MinYoongi]

3 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

The little EPAMp spike looks to align with a CME arrival.

We will need orbit data to figure this one out. A CME from the 30th shouldn't have had the velocities for the arrival early this morning. The arrival this morning could have been from a filament eruption on the 31st and this new arrival could be the X5 CME arrival. Or there could have been some other CME mixed in. It should just come down to the satellite orbit data to see which direction both CMEs came from.

 

[arjemma]

It does look like there could be 2 CMEs indeed and one of the shocks should be from the X5 eruption. Since we were at the edge of the shock it would fit with the time as well.

[Jesterface23]

The velocities would line up fairly well with the filament eruption on the 31st arriving first and the X5 flare CME arriving second. There is no clear arrival of the filament at STEREO A which should have took an impact first. It very well could have arrived during a data outage.

[Jesterface23]

We have some orbits now. We don't have ACE's arrival for the first CME currently, but the arrival times and positions of DSCOVR and SOHO seem so show the CME came from the eastern disk, being the filament CME.

For the second event, the positions and arrivals lean towards more of a center-disk event as it came in fairly head on. So either the X5 flare CME never arrived, or it somehow fell in line behind the filament sheath and went on to impact SA a little over an hour later.

[arjemma]

There is this swedish (rather big) "influencer" who says that we will get hit by at least one CME (maybe 2) in the coming 3-4 days. I have no idea what CME's they are talking about. Do any of you have any ideas cause I really can't find any CME's that has a clear halo. Anyone here who knows what they might be talking about?

I haven't really trusted them before since he often hype up solar storms a lot but maybe we are missing something?

Edited January 6 by arjemma

[Malisha Reuvekamp]

Oh no.. influencers.

I dont think we did miss anything!!

Reminds me of last time when a social media website or so forecasted heavy northern lights apparantly using the 27 day KP forecast or something like that. 😅

 

Edited January 6 by Malisha Reuvekamp
Added some text

[MinYoongi]

44 minutes ago, arjemma said:

There is this swedish (rather big) "influencer" who says that we will get hit by at least one CME (maybe 2) in the coming 3-4 days. I have no idea what CME's they are talking about. Do any of you have any ideas cause I really can't find any CME's that has a clear halo. Anyone here who knows what they might be talking about?

I haven't really trusted them before since he often hype up solar storms a lot but maybe we are missing something?

may i ask who? someone known in the SpaceWX community?

[Malisha Reuvekamp]

With influencers my mind automatically thinks about promoting make-up and clothing, or that kind of stuff, I did not know there were Spaceweather influencers. Maybe I should be more open minded😂

[arjemma]

24 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

may i ask who? someone known in the SpaceWX community?

It's the owner of the swedish facebook page "Norrsken Sverige", his name is Carl. I'm not sure how well known he is outside of Sweden. He often makes his own predictions and often says that there is good aurora chances when there isn't and things like that. So his latest FB post had me questioning what he meant by "at least one CME heading our way".

24 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

With influencers my mind automatically thinks about promoting make-up and clothing, or that kind of stuff, I did not know there were Spaceweather influencers. Maybe I should be more open minded😂

Basically this person is trying to capitalize on aurora by selling aurora calendars, aurora book and so on. So that's why I used the word influencer inside ""  haha.

[Malisha Reuvekamp]

Ah..too bad. 

Would have been mindblowing though if he was right and overhere we ALL missed it. 🤣🙈

[tniickck]

1 hour ago, arjemma said:

There is this swedish (rather big) "influencer" who says that we will get hit by at least one CME (maybe 2) in the coming 3-4 days. I have no idea what CME's they are talking about.

neither do i. i dont see any significant CMEs that can even barely hit us

[arjemma]

1 minute ago, tniickck said:

neither do i. i dont see any significant CMEs that can even barely hit us

Same here and it doesn't look like Cactus have seen one either. I think Cactus is only updating once per 6 hours or something though (I'm not sure what time interval it is, I have forgot) but it feels like it would have at least one candidate by now.

[Jesterface23]

1 hour ago, arjemma said:

There is this swedish (rather big) "influencer" who says that we will get hit by at least one CME (maybe 2) in the coming 3-4 days.

Maybe they've seen some far side events. They look to be focused on a CME that launched early on the 5th from around region 3536. Probably a low chance of arrival.

[arjemma]

9 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Maybe they've seen some far side events. They look to be focused on a CME that launched early on the 5th from around region 3536. Probably a low chance of arrival.

Yea that can be possible. I will have to check the january 5th event and see how it looks. I felt I needed to ask you guys here to see if you had seen something that I had missed. Either way it does feel like it's a low chance of arrival if there isn't much info on the event.

Other than that we have some CH HSS arriving in the coming days but I don't think it will give more than G1 and at most G2 if the Bz is oriented south.

[arjemma]

There is a new CME up in the CME scoreboard: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/

I don't know if they meant to put in 80% inside the confidence instead of 8.0 which is only 8%. I looked at it in LASCO C3 and I don't see a halo. I only see a fairly narrow CME going east of earth mainly.

This would be the CME in question in Cactus I think: https://www.sidc.be/cactus/out/CME0038/CME.html it doesn't look earth directed to me. Maybe a weak glancing blow in that case.

Edited January 6 by arjemma
Added link to the CME

[mozy]

9 hours ago, arjemma said:

It's the owner of the swedish facebook page "Norrsken Sverige", his name is Carl. I'm not sure how well known he is outside of Sweden. He often makes his own predictions and often says that there is good aurora chances when there isn't and things like that. So his latest FB post had me questioning what he meant by "at least one CME heading our way".

I know exactly what you're saying, he has been learning more about it & been improving, it was way worse before, I think he just gets excited about stuff too fast but that will only lure people out for nothing since people see him as a credible source for information, I've seen it happen countless times now.

I appreciate his work & dedication to get more people interested in this field but he has to learn to contain his excitement about certain events since a lot of them are small or really uncertain whether they'll hit or not, this is what is creating the confusion & misinformation within that group.

I do know he lurks here on the forums too & has left few comments before.

Other than that, lame with nothing bigger expected to impact earth now that we're literally having clear skies for a week almost.. 😐

[arjemma]

11 hours ago, mozy said:

I know exactly what you're saying, he has been learning more about it & been improving, it was way worse before, I think he just gets excited about stuff too fast but that will only lure people out for nothing since people see him as a credible source for information, I've seen it happen countless times now.

I appreciate his work & dedication to get more people interested in this field but he has to learn to contain his excitement about certain events since a lot of them are small or really uncertain whether they'll hit or not, this is what is creating the confusion & misinformation within that group.

I do know he lurks here on the forums too & has left few comments before.

Other than that, lame with nothing bigger expected to impact earth now that we're literally having clear skies for a week almost.. 😐

I agree, it was way worse before so there has been improvement. He has some way to go though. He has been in Swedish television in the mornings promising great aurora in the evening which is very hard to do. So it has for sure created confusion and misinformation is spreading fast and even to the media. 

Either way, the CME scoreboard has added one more CME now but I think both of them are low confidence from what I can tell. It's very annoying cause we have clear skies too now for a few days  

[Malisha Reuvekamp]

Ah so pretty famous.😅

Lets hope he'll be a bit more relaxed  predictionwize then. 🤭

Anyone an idea if it is the Coronal hole wind arriving about now?

Edit: While typing it already drops again? Oops

Edited January 7 by Malisha Reuvekamp

[Jesterface23]

1 hour ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

Anyone an idea if it is the Coronal hole wind arriving about now?

Edit: While typing it already drops again? Oops

DSCOVR's solar wind data has problems at random. They switched to ACE's data while it is working.

[arjemma]

On 1/7/2024 at 9:07 PM, Jesterface23 said:

DSCOVR's solar wind data has problems at random. They switched to ACE's data while it is working.

Do we know why there has been so much trouble with the data recently? I know there has been issues for a while but it does feel like there has been more problems the last couple of days. I really hope DSCOVR and ACE can hold up until the new ESA satellite is launched.

[Jesterface23]

2 hours ago, arjemma said:

Do we know why there has been so much trouble with the data recently? I know there has been issues for a while but it does feel like there has been more problems the last couple of days. I really hope DSCOVR and ACE can hold up until the new ESA satellite is launched.

I don't really know. ACE seems to have taken the load for a while, but now that we are getting regular gaps in ACE's real time data all we have is the data from DSCOVRs issued faraday cup. 

[Sam Warfel]

Times like this make me nervous.  Our spacecraft are old