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Unspecified geomagnetic activity


Isatsuki San
Message added by Sam Warfel,

Use this thread to discuss any minor questions or unspecified geomagnetic activity. 

For discussion of expected inbound CMEs, or noticeable geomagnetic storms, please create new threads (“X2 CME prediction”, “G3 storming”)

Thank you!

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3 minutes ago, D1SCORDANT said:

Hey guys, so I'm a seafarer and currently in Mosjøen Norway 65°N, weather is clearing up but I'm wondering when I will be able to see it with naked eye any tips?

Already possible to see it right now? or still have to wait an hour or so, very excited right now haha!

Is it dark yet?

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2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

 

image.png.3c9e6b6965ae1f3be8dfd13ff7a991e9.png

what do you think? 

I only understood half of that.. :sigh: a few months out of the spaceweather thing and i forgot alot of terminology. can you explain this a bit shorter/simpler? 

That warning sounds plausible, I guess it depends on how it develops from here. Wouldn't surprise me if we reach G3, but wouldn't surprise me if we don't either. The conditions are still right and the hemispheric power high, so moving past G2 where we are now is certainly not unthinkable.

As for SA, it orbits Sol faster than Earth, so it drifts away from us over time, until it completes an orbit and comes closer to us again, before passing us and repeating. So typically it won't be positioned to measure the Solar wind as we'd expect it here, like the satellites at L1 do, but just when it passes us it is in that position where it can be used for that purpose. Now that it's moving away from us again we'll be less and less able to rely on it for that.

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5 minutes ago, D1SCORDANT said:

Hey guys, so I'm a seafarer and currently in Mosjøen Norway 65°N, weather is clearing up but I'm wondering when I will be able to see it with naked eye any tips?

Already possible to see it right now? or still have to wait an hour or so, very excited right now haha!

If the skies are clear I'd say there should be a definite chance, but I don't think you can say for sure. Could also depend on favorable substorm activity.

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Zojuist, Philalethes zei:

If the skies are clear I'd say there should be a definite chance, but I don't think you can say for sure. Could also depend on favorable substorm activity.

Ahh okay in that case I will keep tabs on this thread and the app, and check regularly to the sky I guess haha thanks!

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12 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

That warning sounds plausible, I guess it depends on how it develops from here. Wouldn't surprise me if we reach G3, but wouldn't surprise me if we don't either. The conditions are still right and the hemispheric power high, so moving past G2 where we are now is certainly not unthinkable.

As for SA, it orbits Sol faster than Earth, so it drifts away from us over time, until it completes an orbit and comes closer to us again, before passing us and repeating. So typically it won't be positioned to measure the Solar wind as we'd expect it here, like the satellites at L1 do, but just when it passes us it is in that position where it can be used for that purpose. Now that it's moving away from us again we'll be less and less able to rely on it for that.

Thank you for the easier explanation. So you think the link/data i see at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-terrestrial-relations-observatory-stereo might not be perfect to see whats to come in the hours ahead? i think @Landon Moeller did that a while ago pretty reliable. (but as you said, it couldve moved since then) 

 

about the warning, i agree. i was just surprised about the "or stronger" part and the "strong-extreme" ? 

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30 minutes ago, D1SCORDANT said:

Hey guys, so I'm a seafarer and currently in Mosjøen Norway 65°N, weather is clearing up but I'm wondering when I will be able to see it with naked eye any tips?

Already possible to see it right now? or still have to wait an hour or so, very excited right now haha!

This might help: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

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31 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

cloudy/rainy in west germany (near nijmegen) too :( 

Sorry to hear this!  Going into daylight here.  I hope Cat Perkinton has clear weather to shoot some Aurora candy for the rest of us unfortunates at the very least.  My sympathies!   Officially at kp seven just now! 

Edited by hamateur 1953
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50 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you for the easier explanation. So you think the link/data i see at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-terrestrial-relations-observatory-stereo might not be perfect to see whats to come in the hours ahead? i think @Landon Moeller did that a while ago pretty reliable. (but as you said, it couldve moved since then) 

 

about the warning, i agree. i was just surprised about the "or stronger" part and the "strong-extreme" ? 

Yep, that's exactly what I mean. It's been reliable to use it for that during the time it's passed us, which takes quite a long time given that it completes one orbit relative to us (and thus passes us) every ~16.5 years or so; but now it's starting to drift far enough away that it won't always be reliable for that purpose (and in ~8 years it will be in opposition and register farside activity, as it would also have done ~8 years ago). That being said, it's still not far enough away that it can't give us some idea, but it won't be as good as it has been recently.

12 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Uhhhh. It could very well be the CME from the 3rd with possibly another velocity shock to come. It's the one thing that makes sense right now, but I don't get how it would have arrived at L1 before STEREO A.

Yeah, that's a bit weird, especially considering the higher speed at SA.

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My prediction after that filament on the 3rd was that we'd see strong G2 maybe dipping a toe or two into G3 territory for brief periods. Nothing scientific behind that, just a gut feeling and a wild-ass guess. Kind of amusing to see it actually happen, lol. 😊

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I’m going to go out on a limb (pun) and stick with the NOAA forecast; this was the 2nd flare and the filament is still incoming, with solar wind stream to follow. I hope some of you see aurora.

A day like today is a great example why it would be cool to develop a longer-term tool than Enlil, for when we have multiple overlapping impacts. Could we crowdfund it?

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So it looks like yesterday's activity was indeed the 10/31 CME arrival and now we're getting the strong solar wind from that coronal hole. There was no chance of seeing aurora here due to both the weather and the timing but still nice to see someone get some eye candy out of it.

Thanks @Malisha Reuvekamp for sharing those gorgeous pics!

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Do the breaks or dips in the KP relate to breaks in various impacts in your interpretation? In my “read” of the data, 1st KP7 was result of previous flare, 2nd KP7 is result of filament impact? NOAA Enlil shows the solar wind arriving Nov 7.

IMG_1157.jpeg

Edited by David Silver
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Overall a pretty successful chase for me, even though the storm was subsiding by the time the sun went down.  Given that, and what I’ve gathered from a few previous storms, wanted to share a few observations/lessons learned that might help others in the future (strong emphasis on “might”). Bulleted to keep it short.

1. the brightest and most crimson reds seem to occur almost immediately after the initial impulse,  I’ve noticed this seems to have been the case with the last few major impacts.

2. Even though the storm was subsiding with consistent strongly positive bz, flatlining magnetometers, and the HPI crashing to around 25, the aurora was still visible as a diffuse green arc on the horizon at 44 degrees latitude.  So, just even if “the storm is over” it might be worth going out anyway.

3. The best time for viewing, or at least the most active time seems to be between 6-10 hours after CME impact, when the bz is more stable and in a negative orientation.

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