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Unspecified geomagnetic activity


Isatsuki San
Message added by Sam Warfel,

Use this thread to discuss any minor questions or unspecified geomagnetic activity. 

For discussion of expected inbound CMEs, or noticeable geomagnetic storms, please create new threads (“X2 CME prediction”, “G3 storming”)

Thank you!

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21 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Superar un Bt de 25 nT es un buen comienzo para esta llegada impactante. Ahora sólo necesitamos un poco de suerte con este.

Wow, 34 bt, I'm surprised, are you sure it's in the impact of an indirect hit?

9 minutes ago, tniickck said:

IMF goes wild

I am surprised with this impact of cme, it is the second time that I see the imf data like this

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10 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

Wow, 34 bt, I'm surprised, are you sure it's in the impact of an indirect hit?

This one ended up being a bulk hit from the CME from the 2nd, plus increased influence from the CME from the 31st.

Partially hitting myself. Out of two forecasts I could of gone with I didn't go with the one that would have been within 1 hour of the actual arrival lol.

Edited by Jesterface23
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3 minutes ago, mozy said:

Impresionante

on twitter spaceweatherlive public this

3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Este terminó siendo un gran éxito de la CME desde el día 2, además de una mayor influencia de la CME desde el día 31.

Golpeándome parcialmente. De los dos pronósticos que pude haber elegido, no elegí el que habría sido dentro de 1 hora de la llegada real jajaja.

So is this in the cme of November 3 or the other cme that said he was going to be a cannibal?

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3 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Como todo el mundo en un momento u otro. Ja

Okay, the epam detected a cme and this time it seems to be the filament that was released on December 3, I say this because the solar wind increased to 500 kilometers per second along with the density of protons, plus the bz is to the north, and let's remember that the filament came loose in the northern area, so if my assumption is correct, ¿it means that we already received the filament hit on November 3?

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1 hour ago, Isatsuki San said:

Okay, the epam detected a cme and this time it seems to be the filament that was released on December 3, I say this because the solar wind increased to 500 kilometers per second along with the density of protons, plus the bz is to the north, and let's remember that the filament came loose in the northern area, so if my assumption is correct, ¿it means that we already received the filament hit on November 3?

Some of the forecasts did predict that it would hit halfway through November 5, so that sounds like a good possibility.

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40 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

so whats yet to come?

i have a question @Jesterface23 @Philalethes @Isatsuki San  why is the solar wind speed so slow? is this cme mixed with coronal wind stream?

CME’s from Filament eruptions have a slow speed, they are much slower than CME’s produced by solar flares. Coronal hole speeds are often higher so solar wind will rise when coronal hole influence comes.

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32 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

so whats yet to come?

i have a question @Jesterface23 @Philalethes @Isatsuki San  why is the solar wind speed so slow? is this cme mixed with coronal wind stream?

Well, I'm not sure it's all that slow. Roughly speaking, ~1 au / ~60 hours = 700 km/s of average transit speed, but that will be faster during eruption and slower as it hits; going by the most accurate formula provided in this paper by Möstl that I've referenced earlier, ~60 hours of transit time should result in what's termed the interplanetary speed of 800 km/s, but since we're primarily being hit by the slower sheath emanating out from the CME like the wake of a ship, there is a formula to correct for that too, yielding almost exactly 500 km/s, which is what we observe. Seems spot-on if you ask me.

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17 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

CME’s from Filament eruptions have a slow speed, they are much slower than CME’s produced by solar flares. Coronal hole speeds are often higher so solar wind will rise when coronal hole influence comes.

Thank you. I've seen a blip on ACE with over 1000kms. likely a glitch?

2 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Well, I'm not sure it's all that slow. Roughly speaking, ~1 au / ~60 hours = 700 km/s of average transit speed, but that will be faster during eruption and slower as it hits; going by the most accurate formula provided in this paper by Möstl that I've referenced earlier, ~60 hours of transit time should result in what's termed the interplanetary speed of 800 km/s, but since we're primarily being hit by the slower sheath emanating out from the CME like the wake of a ship, there is a formula to correct for that too, yielding almost exactly 500 km/s, which is what we observe. Seems spot-on if you ask me.

Thanks for the answer, guys.Do you know which type of flux rope it is? do you think the negative BZ will stay like that? someone on twitter (Vincent Ledvina) said its the strongest CME in over a decade?

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1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you. I've seen a blip on ACE with over 1000kms. likely a glitch?

Thanks for the answer, guys.Do you know which type of flux rope it is? do you think the negative BZ will stay like that? someone on twitter (Vincent Ledvina) said its the strongest CME in over a decade?

Looking at Helio4Cast there doesn't seem to be any indication of the flux rope yet, so that would be speculative guesswork methinks; maybe in the future we will be able to monitor it so closely that we know in advance. Right now it's still the sheath as far as I know, so there's no guarantee for the Bz.

As for whether it's the strongest CME in over a decade, that could be; I think we're seeing a combination of two though, and possibly the SIR plays a role too, so not sure if it can safely be called the single strongest one. The Bt is really high though, I'd have to check the numbers to see how rarely it goes that high.

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Just now, Philalethes said:

Looking at Helio4Cast there doesn't seem to be any indication of the flux rope yet, so that would be speculative guesswork methinks; maybe in the future we will be able to monitor it so closely that we know in advance. Right now it's still the sheath as far as I know, so there's no guarantee for the Bz.

As for whether it's the strongest CME in over a decade, that could be; I think we're seeing a combination of two though, and possibly the SIR plays a role too, so not sure if it can safely be called the single strongest one. The Bt is really high though, I'd have to check the numbers to see how rarely it goes that high.

And what about the 1000kms? I see only 400 right now but this shows 1000 https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-terrestrial-relations-observatory-stereo  

im still confused as to if this can be used to forecast effects at earth because it may be hit with a different portion of the CME?

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3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

And what about the 1000kms? I see only 400 right now but this shows 1000 https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-terrestrial-relations-observatory-stereo  

im still confused as to if this can be used to forecast effects at earth because it may be hit with a different portion of the CME?

I would guess it's because SA is now ahead of us in terms of orbit, and also a bit closer to Sol, both of which might contribute to a more direct hit from it. Doesn't quite look like a flux rope though, but I would think the portion of the sheath more in front of the CME would have a higher speed. You're right that SA won't necessarily be the best predictor for effects here, and less and less so the further away from us it drifts in terms of orbit. The luxury of using it as such a proxy like the satellites stationed at L1 has essentially just been possible this transient period as it moves past us.

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image.png.3c9e6b6965ae1f3be8dfd13ff7a991e9.png

what do you think? 

15 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

I would guess it's because SA is now ahead of us in terms of orbit, and also a bit closer to Sol, both of which might contribute to a more direct hit from it. Doesn't quite look like a flux rope though, but I would think the portion of the sheath more in front of the CME would have a higher speed. You're right that SA won't necessarily be the best predictor for effects here, and less and less so the further away from us it drifts in terms of orbit. The luxury of using it as such a proxy like the satellites stationed at L1 has essentially just been possible this transient period as it moves past us.

I only understood half of that.. :sigh: a few months out of the spaceweather thing and i forgot alot of terminology. can you explain this a bit shorter/simpler? 

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Hey guys, so I'm a seafarer and currently in Mosjøen Norway 65°N, weather is clearing up but I'm wondering when I will be able to see it with naked eye any tips?

Already possible to see it right now? or still have to wait an hour or so, very excited right now haha!

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