Incoming Regions (de-commissioned)

[Jesterface23]

There's another decent far side eruption, though this one seems to have originated from the southern hemisphere

The source maybe 5-ish days from the limb.

[Philalethes]

Looks like the radio emission was associated with this event near the limb:

There was definitely some eruptive activity, but it looks like most of it just fell back down. No sign on C2 as of 18:12, but maybe we'll see something eventually, probably won't be much anyway.

[3gMike]

Looks like we have a fairly decent AR just appearing on the East Limb (Southern hemisphere). I think this probably is the same zone that supported AR3315 on the last rotation. On that pass it produced 4 small M flares ( and several C's). Currently looks like a Beta configuration with opposite fields in close proximity.

In a few days will expect to see another AR arrive at similar latitude. This is related to AR3319 from previous rotation. On that pass it only produced a few C flares, but currently looks strong in farside helio-seismic imagery.

[Philalethes]

On 6/17/2023 at 11:40 AM, 3gMike said:

Looks like we have a fairly decent AR just appearing on the East Limb (Southern hemisphere). I think this probably is the same zone that supported AR3315 on the last rotation. On that pass it produced 4 small M flares ( and several C's). Currently looks like a Beta configuration with opposite fields in close proximity.

In a few days will expect to see another AR arrive at similar latitude. This is related to AR3319 from previous rotation. On that pass it only produced a few C flares, but currently looks strong in farside helio-seismic imagery.

I assume this latest impulsive M-flare (19T12:10Z) was from that incoming region; as seen in the GONG imagery:

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, Philalethes said:

I assume this latest impulsive M-flare (19T12:10Z) was from that incoming region; as seen in the GONG imagery:

I think that is quite likely. Let's hope it remains active as there is nothing much else to look forward to at the moment.

[Philalethes]

13 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

I think that is quite likely. Let's hope it remains active as there is nothing much else to look forward to at the moment.

June's been relatively quiet so far indeed, although the sunspot count has actually been very high; today the EISN as per SILSO is 181, and the monthly average so far is 144.8, which if maintained would make it the highest so far this cycle. Of course we'll have to wait and see, but seems like it keeps brewing.

[3gMike]

4 hours ago, Philalethes said:

June's been relatively quiet so far indeed, although the sunspot count has actually been very high; today the EISN as per SILSO is 181, and the monthly average so far is 144.8, which if maintained would make it the highest so far this cycle. Of course we'll have to wait and see, but seems like it keeps brewing.

Yes, that is interesting because 10.7cm flux remains relatively low at 164 compared to the peak of 234 in January.

I've just picked up the latest photospheric field map, updated by WSO on 18th June. It shows a very large, contiguous, positive field which spans both hemispheres and, over most of the disk, tends to enclose the negative fields. This has the effect of containing those negative fields as a series of 'blobs' which bridge the equator. I'm not entirely sure exactly how much we can interpret from this, but I would suggest that the field configuration in the zone covered by Carrington longitudes 90 to 180 does not look particularly promising. Equally, C270 to 360 in the Northern is predominantly positive field, and the southern hemisphere only has one area with strong fields of opposite polarity adjacent to one another.

[Philalethes]

11 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Yes, that is interesting because 10.7cm flux remains relatively low at 164 compared to the peak of 234 in January.

I've just picked up the latest photospheric field map, updated by WSO on 18th June. It shows a very large, contiguous, positive field which spans both hemispheres and, over most of the disk, tends to enclose the negative fields. This has the effect of containing those negative fields as a series of 'blobs' which bridge the equator. I'm not entirely sure exactly how much we can interpret from this, but I would suggest that the field configuration in the zone covered by Carrington longitudes 90 to 180 does not look particularly promising. Equally, C270 to 360 in the Northern is predominantly positive field, and the southern hemisphere only has one area with strong fields of opposite polarity adjacent to one another.

Good analysis, and I see what you mean about the fields, sounds reasonable to me. I'd note that last CR there was some sunspot activity around C120-150; I couldn't find the one for the last CR on WSO's website, so here's the HMI synoptic map instead (which admittedly doesn't show the overall shape of the fields as well, but does show where there are spots since it's essentially a flattened magnetogram), retrievable here:

Regarding the spot around C120, as you say there aren't strong adjacent fields there, so as expected it never reached a too complex configuration and didn't have much activity; however the region around C130-140 was quite complex, reaching a BGD configuration and being responsible for quite a bit of activity in early May (it was AR 13296). I'm assuming this is likely due to some shifting of the fields, and that you'd probably see a stronger negative field there in the WSO map for CR2270.

Also notable here is the region around C270 (AR 13288) which also reached BGD and flared quite a bit around end of April and beginning of May, and that is what you identify as the southern region around those parts with strong adjacent fields. That's current AR 13335 if I'm not mistaken.

So all in all it seems to check out fairly well. And C180 is about to rotate into view, so I guess we'll get a look at any developments in that C90-C180 zone soon.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Philalethes

[3gMike]

It looks like we have a fairly large region coming in on the southern hemisphere with opposite polarity fields in close proximity. This is a newly developed region, so we will have to wait to see if it can provide any decent activity.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

18 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei:

It looks like we have a fairly large region coming in on the southern hemisphere with opposite polarity fields in close proximity. This is a newly developed region, so we will have to wait to see if it can provide any decent activity.

Isn’t this old 3333?

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, 3gMike said:

It looks like we have a fairly large region coming in on the southern hemisphere with opposite polarity fields in close proximity. This is a newly developed region, so we will have to wait to see if it can provide any decent activity.

Looks quite sizeable indeed, will be interesting to see if there's any complexity. I'd been seeing it over the past days on the GONG farside imagery and hoping it'd remain there, and by the looks of it it's not disappointing so far.

46 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Isn’t this old 3333?

I only checked some synoptic charts yesterday to see if it were present last cycle, and I'm not quite sure. Looks to me like 3333 was at around C315, while this one seems to be at around C335. Judging by the WSO synoptic chart, it would be something like this:

But I guess it remains to be seen what the field looks like now, it's changing all the time after all. If the new spot is where it's indicated above, I would assume the field is stronger there now given the size of this spot.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Philalethes
correction for polarity

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

I only checked some synoptic charts yesterday to see if it were present last cycle, and I'm not quite sure. Looks to me like 3333 was at around C315, while this one seems to be at around C335.

Agreed, and additionally AR333 had shrunk considerably over 4 to 5 days as it approached the west limb. It was listed as a plage area on the final day.

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, Philalethes said:

But I guess it remains to be seen what the field looks like now, it's changing all the time after all.

Yes, we do not have data to allow comparison at those co-ordinates, but it is informative to see how how Carrington longitudes 45 to 255 have developed over the last rotation (highlighted below)

[Jesterface23]

3333 would still be on the far side if it still exists. It looks like we have part of old region 3342 coming over the limb right now as 3363.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Jesterface23

[Philalethes]

50 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

3333 would still be on the far side if it still exists. It looks like we have part of old region 3342 coming over the limb right now as 3363.

I agree, that seems like a much better fit, especially considering the latitude too.

[3gMike]

4 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

3333 would still be on the far side if it still exists. It looks like we have part of old region 3342 coming over the limb right now as 3363.

I agree. We only saw 3342 for a few days as it approached the west limb, but it grew quite rapidly in that time producing several C flares and an M1.1

[hamateur 1953]

I was also looking at regions due to return. Although I see presently no big loops etc. It looks pretty doggone big indeed!  

8 hours ago, 3gMike said:

I agree. We only saw 3342 for a few days as it approached the west limb, but it grew quite rapidly in that time producing several C flares and an M1.1

 

[MinYoongi]

an interesting region is up north  

[tniickck]

14 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

an interesting region is up north  

yeah, just produced a m2 flare

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

an interesting region is up north  

Really kicked the background flux up a notch, can't even tell if it's flaring right now or if the background flux is actually above M-level. Looks like a fair amount of flux from the cluster of regions on the other limb too.

[tniickck]

and m1.1 immediately, crazy

Edited July 11, 2023 by tniickck

[tniickck]

and another one goes

[mozy]

2 minutes ago, tniickck said:

and another one goes

Bigger one this time, sure seems like an interesting region

[tniickck]

m 6.83 is really impressive, i will make a new thread about it right now

Edited July 11, 2023 by tniickck
misclick

[Ester89]

This last one (M 6.8 flare) has been assigned to region 3368.

I wonder if it's some mistake, as I certainly saw it shine brightly on the north limb

Edited July 11, 2023 by Ester89