Sam Warfel Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: When was the CME anticipated? Like, how much "too Late" is it? I hope it will still spark some aurora. I live in a big city and cant see it, sadly. I don’t think it’s very late. It could definitely still spark auroras, remember the SWPC G3 watch goes through Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Orneno said: No creo que sea muy tarde. Definitivamente aún podría provocar auroras, ¡recuerde que el reloj SWPC G3 pasa el domingo! is increased, it seems to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larron Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: When was the CME anticipated? Like, how much "too Late" is it? I hope it will still spark some aurora. I live in a big city and cant see it, sadly. Going out in a bit to see, hoping for a show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, Larron said: Going out in a bit to see, hoping for a show Do you think it will arrive that soon? I never used the EPAM method Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larron Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Do you think it will arrive that soon? I never used the EPAM method I'm clueless, just started watching graphs for auroras, but its clear right now (been cloudy for weeks) so might aswell go out and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imrich Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 (edited) Solar wind speed and density should increase at DSCOVR satellite an hour before any visible auroras. EPAM is good for detetermining if a coronal mass ejection is going to arrive soon. Edited October 30, 2021 by Imrich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 (edited) These will be simple and useful to watch once the CME hits L1, https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/auroral-oval.html https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast Edited October 30, 2021 by Jesterface23 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Imrich said: Solar wind speed and density should increase at DSCOVR satellite a hour before any visible auroras. EPAM is good for detetermining if a coronal mass ejection is going to arrive soon. Actually, it all depends on the speed of the CME. It could be anywhere from an hour to half an hour or less between Earth and DSCOVR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imrich Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Orneno said: Actually, it all depends on the speed of the CME. It could be anywhere from an hour to half an hour or less between Earth and DSCOVR I just simplified things a bit. Average speed of CME is ~300mi/s, that would take about an hour and this CME looks slow. Edited October 30, 2021 by Imrich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 The estimated speed at arrival of the CME would be around 700km/sec. The later it arrives the lower the speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomasz Mielec Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Imrich said: I just simplified things a bit. Average speed of CME is ~300mi/s, that would take about an hour and this CME looks slow. Its not 300km/s now solar wind speed is around 400km/s CME speed be 600-700 i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 A travel time of around 54 hours is ~650km/s, 60 hours at ~600km/s, 66 hours at ~550km/s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Still waiting.. anyone else?👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 minuut geleden, MinYoongi zei: Still waiting.. anyone else?👀 Thousands are waiting for it 😝 and EPAM isn’t working along 🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 The data is strange, this constant southward Bz reminds me of a CME but the solar wind speed is way too low to be the X1 CME. There hasn't been a shock in the solar wind yet either so... it is a bit puzzling, what we are seeing right now shouldn't be the X1 CME at least. What we are seeing right now could be this CME from 5 days ago. It is a halo and the solar wind speed is what you expect from a CME from 5 days ago. I totaly missed this, credit to Fredrik Larsson for the tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tillson Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Hey! First time I'm consciously observing a CME and I'm kinda excited :D I've been keeping an eye on the data on the main website and it's really interesting to observe even though I'm still trying to figure out what it all means While we're all waiting for EPAM to rise, I noticed that the DST index dropped significantly throughout the evening, is that also a sign that the X1 CME might arrive soon or is it totally unrelated? Also just noticed the Kp-index increase to Kp4 which is exciting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minuten geleden, Tillson zei: While we're all waiting for EPAM to rise, I noticed that the DST index dropped significantly throughout the evening, is that also a sign that the X1 CME might arrive soon or is it totally unrelated? Unrelated. If you look at the ENLIL model there was an enhanced solar wind stream arriving before the CME would hit. So we see the effects of that and not yet the CME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tillson Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Unrelated. If you look at the ENLIL model there was an enhanced solar wind stream arriving before the CME would hit. So we see the effects of that and not yet the CME. I see, appreciate the clarification! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Just now, Marcel de Bont said: The data is strange, this constant southward Bz reminds me of a CME but the solar wind speed is way too low to be the X1 CME. There hasn't been a shock in the solar wind yet either so... it is a bit puzzling, what we are seeing right now shouldn't be the X1 CME at least. I mean.. i remember one time we had a G3 warning due to a CME and a CH or a solar wind stream drove it away from us or something 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 The data from DSCOVR just dropped out. Is that an indication the CME arrived, or did SWPC’s servers get overwhelmed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, Orneno said: The data from DSCOVR just dropped out. Is that an indication the CME arrived, or did SWPC’s servers get overwhelmed? This is giving me so much anxiety 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larron Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Just went out and had quite decent activity here in North(ish) Sweden, so this was not it and we got more to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, Orneno said: The data from DSCOVR just dropped out. Is that an indication the CME arrived, or did SWPC’s servers get overwhelmed? I do think ACE is working tho? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I do think ACE is working tho? Does that give solar wind and imf parameters? Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Orneno said: Does that give solar wind and imf parameters? Where? https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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