AR2887 X flare and CME

[MinYoongi]

59 minutes ago, Tomasz Mielec said:

I remember in 2015 was Kp9 and aurora on camera in Slovenian Alps

Really? 😮 I wasnt observing there yet. Was it pretty?

[Tomasz Mielec]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Really? 😮 I wasnt observing there yet. Was it pretty?

SS camera on Slovenia. I see in southern Poland a very clear aurora this day.

[MinYoongi]

28 minutes ago, Tomasz Mielec said:

SS camera on Slovenia. I see in southern Poland a very clear aurora this day.

I didnt really follow Spaceweather in 2015 since i was around 16 back then  I didnt knew we had KP9 after 2003. Nice!

1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

It can also be a storm in a glass of water if Bz decides to stay northward 😝 but I won’t be the party pooper 😇 we’ll see when it arrives and then we’ll know for sure.

SWPC is forecasting a possible G3 storm

And what if its very very dense and minus polarity?   Im watching dr.Tamitha skov's video rn 

[Tomasz Mielec]

So SWPC predicted Kp7 maybe be even Kp8 but times its not good for Europe, but always its +/- 6h

[MinYoongi]

6 minutes ago, Tomasz Mielec said:

So SWPC predicted Kp7 maybe be even Kp8 but times its not good for Europe, but always its +/- 6h

   is this accurate? This looks not like kp8 o.o

[Tomasz Mielec]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

   is this accurate? This looks not like kp8 o.o

[MinYoongi]

11 minutes ago, Tomasz Mielec said:

But why is everyone talking about a big hit when its only thought to be G2 here in Europe/Mid lattitude? 

[Tomasz Mielec]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

But why is everyone talking about a big hit when its only thought to be G2 here in Europe/Mid lattitude? 

Not G2 Kp7 its G3, but always its can be strongest why we talk about G4 its propably but we dont know thats happens

[Jesterface23]

Not many of the different models have run yet for the CME. So far one WSA-ENLIL model variant run is Kp6-8.

[Tomasz Mielec]

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

Not many of the different models have run yet for the CME. So far one WSA-ENLIL model variant run is Kp6-8.

And its very propably i think its be something about G3-G4 but we will see

[MinYoongi]

18 minutes ago, Tomasz Mielec said:

And its very propably i think its be something about G3-G4 but we will see

Is that dangerous?

[Tomasz Mielec]

5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Is that dangerous?

Nope only we can see its aurora

[Jesterface23]

I'm thinking the minimum possible travel time would be 30 hours. My guess would be 30-40 hours of travel time.

[Drax Spacex]

LASCO C2/C3 shows the noisy speckles and spikes of the S1 radiation storm currently hitting the Earth's magnetosphere.  GOES-16 Proton Flux > 10MeV for the last 6 hours and continues to exceed this S1 threshold.  Dr. Skov says we should expect S1 until CME passes Earth.

Is radiation storm strength positively correlated with geomagnetic storm strength (Bz always being the wildcard)? 

Edited October 29, 2021 by Drax Spacex
Dr. Skov says...

[Sam Warfel]

Looks like the majority of it is going southward anyway so it might not be as strong as we thought and definitely not as strong as some people seemed to be worried about

[MinYoongi]

8 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Looks like the majority of it is going southward anyway so it might not be as strong as we thought and definitely not as strong as some people seemed to be worried about

This calms me down greatly, lol.

 

I've seen some people say that if it continues flaring and ejecting, we might get a very unlucky 1-2 punch and it poses a big threat. is that true?

[Jesterface23]

The 2003 Halloween solar storms were 2 major events, both taking less than 20 hours to reach Earth. What poses a threat is cloud cover not letting us see the aroura.

Edited October 29, 2021 by Jesterface23

[Hayday]

For everyone worrying, it is gonna take more than a Direct X1 to do anything drastic to us, we had minor radio black outs and shitty cell signal today but other than that we will have a great light show in the north! Even two or three in a short span will not take us down, and at this point another one wont compile with the last.

Edited October 29, 2021 by Hayday

[MinYoongi]

7 hours ago, Hayday said:

For everyone worrying, it is gonna take more than a Direct X1 to do anything drastic to us, we had minor radio black outs and shitty cell signal today but other than that we will have a great light show in the north! Even two or three in a short span will not take us down, and at this point another one wont compile with the last.

 

8 hours ago, Orneno said:

Looks like the majority of it is going southward anyway so it might not be as strong as we thought and definitely not as strong as some people seemed to be worried about

This cheers me up but this statement on solen.info makes me anxious yet again because it says "very severe geomagnetic storming possible" but i thought it will only be G3 and nothing can happen to the power grid?:(

[Vancanneyt Sander]

7 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

 

This cheers me up but this statement on solen.info makes me anxious yet again because it says "very severe geomagnetic storming possible" but i thought it will only be G3 and nothing can happen to the power grid?:(

Again a severe geomagnetic storm isn’t the end of the world. If a severe geomagnetic storm would unfold, there is a risk that satellites get damaged and there will be HF radio interference. Industries are alerted to take measures if it would come to a severe geomagnetic storm so that all systems will function nominal during such event. So again nothing to worry about, we’ve had such storms in the past and we’ll have such storms in the future. Just enjoy the show 😇

[MinYoongi]

20 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Again a severe geomagnetic storm isn’t the end of the world. If a severe geomagnetic storm would unfold, there is a risk that satellites get damaged and there will be HF radio interference. Industries are alerted to take measures if it would come to a severe geomagnetic storm so that all systems will function nominal during such event. So again nothing to worry about, we’ve had such storms in the past and we’ll have such storms in the future. Just enjoy the show 😇

Did you ever witness Severe Storms? Someone on here talked about G5 in 2015 but for 2015 and 2017 the strongest i was able to find in the archive was Kp8. (What does the + and - mean?) 

 

Im just sooo stressed out about my fear that powergrids will collapse 🥲😅 

 

Its just very confusing that it ranges from G1-G3 for Noaa and others are talking about G4-G5. 😕 i cant understand it. I usually dont witness Noaa underestimating storms

[Vancanneyt Sander]

18 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

Did you ever witness Severe Storms? Someone on here talked about G5 in 2015 but for 2015 and 2017 the strongest i was able to find in the archive was Kp8. (What does the + and - mean?) 

Im just sooo stressed out about my fear that powergrids will collapse 🥲😅 

I follow space weather since 2001, and I've seen the X17 and X28 live in 2003 and I've seen aurora during the famous halloween storms of October 2003 (I live at the lower middle latitude). To understand the + and - in Kp, visit our help section and read the article about the Kp index 😉 

Powergrids won't collapse, the odds of that happening is a tremendous amount lower than a road worker hitting a wire during construction works. Powergrids are prepared for such events and events from the past made them learn it the hard way and from each event they'll learn. Power grid will be extra monitored during such event so that measures can be taken quickly to prevent damage. That's why there are Space Weather organizations like SWPC, SIDC, MetOffice, ... that provide all industries with the data they need to be prepared. 

18 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

Its just very confusing that it ranges from G1-G3 for Noaa and others are talking about G4-G5. 😕 i cant understand it. I usually dont witness Noaa underestimating storms

It's not confusing, different forecasters can have a different result in the predictions. A slight change in solar wind speed in their calculations can lead to a much earlier or later impact and that has also it's effect on storm strength. It's very hard to predict storms accurately so that's why there will always be differences in predictions. And also don't forget that these are predictions, so it can be stronger or much weaker than predicted. 

[HalfFeralHuman]

Just following on from @Vancanneyt Sander's comments, globally, power-grids are more interconnected than they used to be and that's left the power-grid more susceptible to induced currents by sudden changes in the earth's magnetosphere, as could be caused by a CME. However, super-capacitors have been installed at nodes along the grid in most places to take this kind of hit and in a well designed/maintained power-grid the worst case would be that those blow and you get a fairly run-of-the-mill power outage.

The only thing to be concerned about is sensitive electronic equipment if you live in an area with a bad, unstable power-grid. If you regularly get mini-brownouts or surges it's possible a surge might get to the home. In such a case it might be a good idea to unplug any sensitive devices which aren't behind a surge protector of some kind on Saturday. It probably wouldn't be necessary as your differential fuse should trip before any damage was done anyway, assuming you have one which you probably do unless a monkey wired up your home.

As said above, this really isn't likely to happen, but if we have to say there's anything to worry about, it's just that and radio interference unless you live in space or are a satellite.

[MinYoongi]

2 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

I follow space weather since 2001, and I've seen the X17 and X28 live in 2003 and I've seen aurora during the famous halloween storms of October 2003 (I live at the lower middle latitude). To understand the + and - in Kp, visit our help section and read the article about the Kp index 😉 

Powergrids won't collapse, the odds of that happening is a tremendous amount lower than a road worker hitting a wire during construction works. Powergrids are prepared for such events and events from the past made them learn it the hard way and from each event they'll learn. Power grid will be extra monitored during such event so that measures can be taken quickly to prevent damage. That's why there are Space Weather organizations like SWPC, SIDC, MetOffice, ... that provide all industries with the data they need to be prepared. 

It's not confusing, different forecasters can have a different result in the predictions. A slight change in solar wind speed in their calculations can lead to a much earlier or later impact and that has also it's effect on storm strength. It's very hard to predict storms accurately so that's why there will always be differences in predictions. And also don't forget that these are predictions, so it can be stronger or much weaker than predicted. 

True! I forgot that there are many forecasters.

 

Quick ps: 

Do you really think the downward activity from Sunspot 2887 is an indicator for another Big Flare? Saw some post on Twitter you liked that confused me. I always thought solar Flares are not predictable, at least not in that way or manner. 

If that was sarcasm, my autism struck again 😐🥲😂

[Vancanneyt Sander]

2 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

Do you really think the downward activity from Sunspot 2887 is an indicator for another Big Flare? Saw some post on Twitter you liked that confused me. I always thought solar Flares are not predictable, at least not in that way or manner. 

Nope, the region is losing spots and its magnetic complexity is decreasing, so it's normal that the flares are getting lower. Yesterday there where two small delta spots and now there's none.