AR2887 X flare and CME

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Nope, the region is losing spots and its magnetic complexity is decreasing, so it's normal that the flares are getting lower. Yesterday there where two small delta spots and now there's none.

Just talked about that in my topic about sunspot decay 😂

[Marcel de Bont]

11 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

True! I forgot that there are many forecasters.

 

Quick ps: 

Do you really think the downward activity from Sunspot 2887 is an indicator for another Big Flare? Saw some post on Twitter you liked that confused me. I always thought solar Flares are not predictable, at least not in that way or manner. 

If that was sarcasm, my autism struck again 😐🥲😂

It was me that responded to that tweet. It was indeed sarcasm. The guy I responded to was joking of course and using something called Technical Analysis which is used in the stock market to predict the movement of stocks.  He applied it on the X-ray chart. I replied to it sarcastically saying the Sun will go to X28.

[Sam Warfel]

When will the CME arrive?  I'm trying to plan when I should go looking for it, but between the differing predictions I can't figure out when it would arrive, I'm in US CST.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

11 minuten geleden, Orneno zei:

When will the CME arrive?  I'm trying to plan when I should go looking for it, but between the differing predictions I can't figure out when it would arrive, I'm in US CST.

CME arrivals are a waiting game and no exact math. The impact window will open tomorrow afternoon UTC hours so from then it’s waiting game.

[Sam Warfel]

1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

CME arrivals are a waiting game and no exact math. The impact window will open tomorrow afternoon UTC hours so from then it’s waiting game.

Okay, so definitely not (American) tonight?  Or possibly by the early morning hours?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

2 minuten geleden, Orneno zei:

Okay, so definitely not (American) tonight?  Or possibly by the early morning hours?

I only talk in UTC to be cohesive for everyone in the world. If the CME slowed down more than anticipated it will arrive a lot later and Americans will have an opportunity. But like already said it’s a waiting game, wait till it arrived and we’ll go from there to know the real odds 😉

also take a read on our news item about the impact window. 

[Sam Warfel]

Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said:

I only talk in UTC to be cohesive for everyone in the world. If the CME slowed down more than anticipated it will arrive a lot later and Americans will have an opportunity. But like already said it’s a waiting game, wait till it arrived and we’ll go from there to know the real odds 😉

also take a read on our news item about the impact window. 

I did read it, it just made me confused 😅thanks for the help tho

[MinYoongi]

48 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

I only talk in UTC to be cohesive for everyone in the world. If the CME slowed down more than anticipated it will arrive a lot later and Americans will have an opportunity. But like already said it’s a waiting game, wait till it arrived and we’ll go from there to know the real odds 😉

also take a read on our news item about the impact window. 

Oh, i have a question or two about the slow down thingy.

1. Can a coronal Hole stream slow the CME down? Or interact with it? I've read something about it but i was working until now and i cannot find it. Is there even a Coronal Hole Stream underway? 😳

2.Is there a fix amount that a cme slows down? Like.. uhm, (bare with me for a second, im pretty not smart) for ever 10million miles -10mph or anything like that? 😹 

 

Im excited to see if it will arrive early in the Europe day, because thats kinda what Noaa is predicting. 

Im still a bit scared of the G3's effect, or that it turns into G4 or G5 (which sounds unrealistic i hope) but i will maybe lose my anxiety after its over and nothing happened. so theres that  

[Sam Warfel]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Oh, i have a question or two about the slow down thingy.

1. Can a coronal Hole stream slow the CME down? Or interact with it? I've read something about it but i was working until now and i cannot find it. Is there even a Coronal Hole Stream underway? 😳

2.Is there a fix amount that a cme slows down? Like.. uhm, (bare with me for a second, im pretty not smart) for ever 10million miles -10mph or anything like that? 😹 

 

Im excited to see if it will arrive early in the Europe day, because thats kinda what Noaa is predicting. 

Im still a bit scared of the G3's effect, or that it turns into G4 or G5 (which sounds unrealistic i hope) but i will maybe lose my anxiety after its over and nothing happened. so theres that  

There's no coronal hole stream right now, hasn't been for some weeks now.  And I don't think there's a fixed amount it slows, it could depend on lots of things like the solar wind all the way between the Sun and Earth, which we know very little data about.

[MinYoongi]

4 minutes ago, Orneno said:

There's no coronal hole stream right now, hasn't been for some weeks now.  And I don't think there's a fixed amount it slows, it could depend on lots of things like the solar wind all the way between the Sun and Earth, which we know very little data about.

Thank you!

I'm just a little confused by the Density rising and the Bt/BZ Decreasing right now. I doubt its CME impact because that wouldnt gradually rise.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

10 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

Is there a fix amount that a cme slows down?

If there was, then predicting a CME arrival time would be super easy 😉 

[MinYoongi]

Phew, im still very nervous and glad when the weekend is over.

 

NOAA just issued G3 for Sunday too.

 

I just want the weekend to be over, so i can say bye bye to my anxiety<.< hopefully.

[Sam Warfel]

25 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Phew, im still very nervous and glad when the weekend is over.

 

NOAA just issued G3 for Sunday too.

 

I just want the weekend to be over, so i can say bye bye to my anxiety<.< hopefully.

G3 on Sunday too? Amazing! Viewing conditions could be much better then where I am, it's super cloudy here.

As to being worried, think about this: idk how old you are, but if you're older than a teenager at the least, you've probably lived through many events like this, and probably a handful that were considerably stronger, and you most likely didn't even know they were happening!  Unless you like to look for Auroras, really, no storm in living memory could bring about the kind of catastrophic collapse that internet pundits pontificate about!  Fear is one of the most powerful emotions, and a wonderful way to get people to give you likes and views, so some people use it for that.  It doesn't mean it's true.  

Another red flag, if the "expert" is using tons of technical terms when tweeting or posting on YT to a public audience, it means they are trying to make themselves look smart, which means they are insecure in their position, which means they probably aren't the experts they pretend to be.  They are just sensationalists using taking advantage of people's anxieties about a complicated topic they can't assess themselves, and filling that gap in knowledge with their own overblown predictions to benefit themselves.

If there is ever a storm that poses a real risk to our society, you will not find out about it on Youtube, Twitter, or some internet forum.  It will be in major news sources, referencing the real authorities on the subject like the NOAA SWPC (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center (weather forecasting branch of the US government)), or NASA.

All we have to worry about, now or almost certainly in our lifetimes, is just a good show of Northern Lights!
So if hunkering down and doing some bingewatching is the best way to pass the weekend and put the geomagnetic activity out of your mind, then do that.
However, what I think would be the most fun is to go out someplace pretty and dark and quiet, maybe with family or friends, and look for a display of one of the Earth's most enchanting wonders.

Have a good weekend!

[Vancanneyt Sander]

2891 is getting very interesting, it has a delta structure in the southern part of the region. It’s also the only interesting region as the rest is not worth mentioning 😜

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

2891 is getting very interesting, it has a delta structure in the southern part of the region. It’s also the only interesting region as the rest is not worth mentioning 😜

did 2887 decay too much?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

2 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

did 2887 decay too much?

If you look at it, it’s only red with a few hints of blue. So it turned into a simple not complex region so that was it 🤷‍♂️

[MinYoongi]

The only thing that is scaring me, is the chance that it will turn to G4 or G5.  

If i could rule that out, id be much calmer

[Sam Warfel]

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

The only thing that is scaring me, is the chance that it will turn to G4 or G5.  

If i could rule that out, id be much calmer

Well, the SWPC basically ruled it out. That’s pretty reliable. 

[MinYoongi]

21 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Well, the SWPC basically ruled it out. That’s pretty reliable. 

I hope alot. I saw people talk about G4 and that we cant predict the Bz in the cme.. 

[GirlPhoenix]

31 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I hope alot. I saw people talk about G4 and that we cant predict the Bz in the cme.. 

Looking at the NOAA Scales page on SWPC (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation), it says that there are an average of 100 G4 per solar cycle. So I'm in my mid-thirties and roughly 300 G4 will have happened just in the time I've been alive. If a G4 were as automatically catastrophic as you seem to think, the news of the last 30 years would look far different. And it wouldn't be just a relative handful of researchers and hobbyists following the forecasts, it would be on the regular news outlets any time there was a chance of one. 

[Sam Warfel]

People always talk, but only listen to the scientists.

[Sem1precious]

I saw the Aurora November 8th 1991 from Oklahoma. Does anyone know where I can find the specs of that solar storm? I'm wondering if this one is as strong as that one was. I hope we get to see it here again! 

[Christopher S.]

What solved any sort of awareness anxiety(consciously and irrationally thinking about what could be happening with knowledge of what is) for me was not checking in here for about a week or so. I had missed two geomagnetic storms, G2 and G3 iirc. Didn't notice 'em, honestly didn't care at the time. 

So, perhaps there is a point where you, personally, are paying too much attention to the weather, such that you forget what we've got going on here. We're not just floating on an exposed rock, here, we're on a living planet that consequently also protects all of its children from harm. It will never take a break. All of its children so far have been outlived by it, most all succumbing to age or preying.

Billions of years of this, yet it has produced millions of unique organisms. It is presently most vulnerable to asteroids, but we're doing our best to address this vulnerability. Second highest vulnerability would be a volcanic eruption, which would disrupt the life on Earth for a good period(extinction-level event). Third would be nuclear holocaust. I wouldn't even put the worst-case scenario CME very high on this list, as you can see.

[VOL]

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008JA013232

[1] We attribute the great geomagnetic storm on 8–10 November 1991 to a large-scale eruption that encompassed the disappearance of a ∼25° solar filament in the southern solar hemisphere. The resultant soft X-ray arcade spanned ∼90° of solar longitude

[Hayday]

DSCOVR Still doesnt show impact, if it doesnt update in the next 20 mins than the CME is slower than predicted by WSA-Enlil