Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 When looking at EPAM the CME isn’t near yet, so let the waiting games begin 😇 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 51 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: When looking at EPAM the CME isn’t near yet, so let the waiting games begin 😇 Oh, can we see specific protons arriving at EPAM that tell us how near the CME is? How cool! Someone on twitter just pointed out that the Density and Speed changed and thats an indicator that cme might be near. Just like before a CH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 At this point it is definitely going to be a side impact at Earth. Hoping the section of the CME that hits can still pack a decent punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Most of the ejecta was heading south, you could see the partial halo outline but based on STEREO A, the ejecta on the Sun-Earth line did seem bright and dense. I expect a decent impact from this cloud and if the IMF plays ball, G3 conditions are not out of the question. We can use the EPAM plot to determine if the CME is getting close. It is not perfect but works well for strong CMEs. Check out this link and scroll down. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/how-do-we-know-if-a-cme-is-earth-directed-and-when-it-s-going-to-arrive.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: Most of the ejecta was heading south, you could see the partial halo outline but based on STEREO A, the ejecta on the Sun-Earth line did seem bright and dense. I expect a decent impact from this cloud and if the IMF plays ball, G3 conditions are not out of the question. We can use the EPAM plot to determine if the CME is getting close. It is not perfect but works well for strong CMEs. Check out this link and scroll down. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/how-do-we-know-if-a-cme-is-earth-directed-and-when-it-s-going-to-arrive.html Do you think G4 is possible too? 12 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: At this point it is definitely going to be a side impact at Earth. Hoping the section of the CME that hits can still pack a decent punch. Why do you think that is? 1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: When looking at EPAM the CME isn’t near yet, so let the waiting games begin 😇 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 7 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Do you think G4 is possible too? Possible... possible... I think it isn't likely but can not rule it out. Think G3 is a good bet providing solar wind and IMF parameters are favorable. EPAM has been erratic, hasn't been rising really. I want to see a more steady climb before impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 As time drags on before it arrives, I hope it's not too late and weaker than we thought, or missing us altogether 😕 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Zojuist, Orneno zei: As time drags on before it arrives, I hope it's not too late and weaker than we thought, or missing us altogether 😕 Have patience. It will come. Remember the SIDC predicts an impact time after midnight UTC. I also think NOAA's forecast was a bit too optimistic with their impact time. It's always the same with these CMEs, we just have to be patient. It will come and I'm not worried that it will be weak or miss us. The CME images from LASCO give me confidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Marcel de Bont said: Have patience. It will come. Remember the SIDC predicts an impact time after midnight UTC. I also think NOAA's forecast was a bit too optimistic with their impact time. It's always the same with these CMEs, we just have to be patient. It will come and I'm not worried that it will be weak or miss us. The CME images from LASCO give me confidence. On average, how much late does a CME have to be to be much weaker than anticipated? 3 hours late? 6 hours late? A day? I really have no idea of a benchmark for these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minuten geleden, Orneno zei: On average, how much late does a CME have to be to be much weaker than anticipated? 3 hours late? 6 hours late? A day? I really have no idea of a benchmark for these things. That is so hard to say as so much depends on the direction of the IMF as well. But the later it is the slower the solar wind speed will be at Earth so that also affects things negatively of course. It's just a waiting game now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Density is rising very high rn, is that the particles ahead of the CME? Also SWPC is down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 7 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Density is rising very high rn, is that the particles ahead of the CME? Also SWPC is down.. No, just a small enhanced solar wind stream from a CH. you could aready see that on the ENLIL model run: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: No, just a small enhanced solar wind stream from a CH. you could aready see that on the ENLIL model run: SWPC is down? Coincidence? Just due to higher traffic? Or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 7 minuten geleden, Orneno zei: SWPC is down? Coincidence? Just due to higher traffic? Or what? SWPC is using a CMS system that is too heavy. So when there is a traffic burst, those CMS systems can crash faster. We don’t use a CMS system and built it from the ground up with performance in mind without making it heavy. So we are still online (and hope it stays that way too 😇) and we’re monitoring our servers as well as traffic is at a record high. EPZM is on the rise, it’s on its highest point so far so the CME could be approaching. We’ll need a final jump to be sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: SWPC is using a CMS system that is too heavy. So when there is a traffic burst, those CMS systems can crash faster. We don’t use a CMS system and built it from the ground up with performance in mind without making it heavy. So we are still online (and hope it stays that way too 😇) and we’re monitoring our servers as well as traffic is at a record high. EPZM is on the rise, it’s on its highest point so far so the CME could be approaching. We’ll need a final jump to be sure Thats very good! Hope the page stays up. How are you able to fetch Noaa's Data with them being offline tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Thats very good! Hope the page stays up. How are you able to fetch Noaa's Data with them being offline tho? That’s because they separated the site and data on separate servers. But who knows these might go offline as well but let’s hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomasz Mielec Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Protons rising so maybe we dont have wait very long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, Tomasz Mielec said: Protons rising so maybe we dont have wait very long Yep! But alledgedly its slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 (edited) Messing around a bit with my forecasting method, out of all of the possibilities the latest possible arrival time maxes out on around the 31st 00:00Z. It doesn't account for a specific time of error, but that is the best I can do with the current state of the method. Edited October 30, 2021 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 16 minuten geleden, Jesterface23 zei: Messing around a bit with my forecasting method, out of all of the possibilities the latest possible arrival time maxes out on around the 31st 00:00Z. It doesn't account for a specific time of error, but that is the best I can do with the current state of the method. Of all predictions I’ve seen, the latest arrival time was 31 October 11:28 UTC (56h transit time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larron Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Sudden change in polarity any sign of the storm closing in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 6 minuten geleden, Larron zei: Sudden change in polarity any sign of the storm closing in? No, normal fluctuations of the IMF. We have to look at EPAM to know if it’s near and EPAM starts to look promising ☺️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 EPAM rising! @Orneno Its not too late right? I hope you guys will keep us updated :3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: EPAM rising! @Orneno Its not too late right? I hope you guys will keep us updated :3 Too late for what? A storm, shouldn’t be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Orneno said: Too late for what? A storm, shouldn’t be. When was the CME anticipated? Like, how much "too Late" is it? I hope it will still spark some aurora. I live in a big city and cant see it, sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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