AR2887 X flare and CME

[Sam Warfel]

On 10/29/2021 at 6:04 PM, Vancanneyt Sander said:

2891 is getting very interesting, it has a delta structure in the southern part of the region. It’s also the only interesting region as the rest is not worth mentioning 😜

Can we expect a chance of major flaring from this region?  SWL still just has it classed as Beta.

[Drax Spacex]

49 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Yeah, does that typically happen when a CME hits @Drax Spacex?

 

I have read what is supposed to happen, but I've never experienced it live.  I knew tonight would be a good opportunity to see and hear for myself.

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center provides a good overview on this page:  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/hf-radio-communications.

On that same page there's a link to a PDF document that goes into more detail. https://www.qrparci.org/resource/FDIM81.pdf

See the diagram at the top right on page 88 of that pdf and it shows the frequencies of the blackout region after the initial shock wave of the CME hits the earth.  The 20m band (14.000-14.350MHz) is in the blackout frequency range on that diagram.

I now hear a few stations back on 20 meters, but not as many as before.  I made a contact with a station in Hawaii (a first) which requires a F-layer bounce off the ionosphere.   I'm not hearing any of the South American stations now.  Some of this may be the seasonal and nightly variation in propagation of the 20m band, but the abruptness of the change was unusual, which is why I suspected the CME interaction.

 

[Sam Warfel]

2 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said:

 

I have read what is supposed to happen, but I've never experienced it live.  I knew tonight would be a good opportunity to see and hear for myself.

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center provides a good overview on this page:  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/hf-radio-communications.

On that same page there's a link to a PDF document that goes into more detail. https://www.qrparci.org/resource/FDIM81.pdf

See the diagram at the top right on page 88 of that pdf and it shows the frequencies of the blackout region after the initial shock wave of the CME hits the earth.  The 20m band (14.000-14.350MHz) is in the blackout frequency range on that diagram.

I now hear a few stations back on 20 meters, but not as many as before.  I made a contact with a station in Hawaii (a first) which requires a F-layer bounce off the ionosphere.   I'm not hearing any of the South American stations now.  Some of this may be the seasonal and nightly variation in propagation of the 20m band, but the abruptness of the change was unusual, which is why I suspected the CME interaction.

 

Yeah it seemed reasonable!

Seems like it wasn't a CME after all though.

[mikibishop]

I've been searching for information on the CME but haven't found answers to a couple of question.   I saw some pics on "Lasco." they look like a bright light with a circle over it LOL.  I  am seriously undereducated on this, but I'm very curious and would appreciate a little guidance.  I can't figure out if it's happened yet?  How can I find out when it's happening?  Someone mentioned a scary facebook post.  Will you please post a link so I can be scared, too?   Any info is much appreciated.  Thanks you guys, very much

[Cameron]

Dr. Tamitha Skov says like many other CMEs this one is showing up fashionably late. She guarantees it is still coming. It is battling a slow solar wind stream before it arrives. Unfortunately, clouds have just moved in over the Great Plains. Maybe ... Just Maybe ... I might have a show Sunday Night. Fingers Crossed!

Edited October 31, 2021 by Cameron
Grammer

[Cameron]

What a coincidence . . . As I sit looking at the graphs waiting for the CME PBS is airing a show on the Parker Solar Probe. Looking forward to 2025 when it makes its closest Solar pass. This pass will make it the fastest human made object moving at 690,000 km/hr.

Edited October 31, 2021 by Cameron
Add content

[Sirvegs]

  

 

EPAM has been increasing for the last few hours, I don't think the CME missed.

[Archmonoth]

4 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

The event hasn't even really begun and the critical questions are just flying in.

If you want to work yourselves into a state of panic, by all means. Continue.

Otherwise, the show hasn't even begun, so... maybe take your seats?

I think there is plenty of questions/X-Flare/CME  to warrant a beginning. 

Many questions seem to be about the monitoring technology involved. 

You think people want to panic? Your statement comes across as a bit condescending. 

 

[Jesterface23]

The CME won't be a miss. If the CME goes to a travel time of 72 hours the velocities may be around 500-450km/s though. The active CH HSS velocity lowered some to 380km/s.

[Space pro]

The effect of CME will be less because it is in overdue. Hope it arrives early. I am very excited because this is the first time that I am researching. 

[Jesterface23]

At 09:12Z the CME finally arrived at L1.

You can see the model runs for the aurora here,

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/auroral-oval.html

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

Edited October 31, 2021 by Jesterface23

[Marcel de Bont]

It has indeed arrived it seems. Bit of a disappointment thus far but lets wait how it develops over the coming hours. If the initial shock passes we sometimes get some nice data if we pass trough the core of the CME (that's not a certainty however due the partial halo outline) but Kp7 seems highly unrealistic right now.

[Space pro]

Solar wind are moving at 438 km/s there is a chance of kp6

When will it hit Earth?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

16 minuten geleden, Space pro zei:

Solar wind are moving at 438 km/s there is a chance of kp6

When will it hit Earth?

Sudden impulse at Earth already happened about an hour after impact. The field is reacting to it and we now enter a period of southward oriented IMF which should bring at least active conditions and hopefully if it’s long enough southward a possible storm but a G3 atm seems unlikely.

[Space pro]

Thank you

[Tomasz Mielec]

NOAA really likes jokes

[Space pro]

I think they are right because the Kp index is 4 now.

G1 is possible, but G3 is not possible

[Tomasz Mielec]

1 minute ago, Space pro said:

I think they are right because the Kp index is 4 now.

G1 is possible, but G3 is not possible

Yeah i know maybe even G2 but not likely anyway look when NOAA give this prediction an one hour ago

[Space pro]

 

8 minuten geleden, Tomasz Mielec zei:

Yeah i know maybe even G2 but not likely anyway look when NOAA give this prediction an one hour ago

NOAA'S this prediction is far cry from the reality😄😄

I found out, that the effect of CME was low because the bulk of CME went south of the Earth.

[MinYoongi]

2 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Sudden impulse at Earth already happened about an hour after impact. The field is reacting to it and we now enter a period of southward oriented IMF which should bring at least active conditions and hopefully if it’s long enough southward a possible storm but a G3 atm seems unlikely.

Aw, its kinda shitty its a Dud. But the next will come!


By the way, all morning the Real Solar Wind Data sheet from Noaa said "Ace+DSCVR" with DSCVRS line flatlining i believe. now it switched back to only ace yet again. Is Dscvr in a safehold? Why is Noaa not saying anything? Usually in their forecast they write something like "as measured by ACE&DSCOVR" 🤔 

Also, Magnetometer in Kiruna is sending back Data but it says "suspended" ? 

Is the solar wind and DST data reliable still? 

[Space pro]

7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Aw, its kinda shitty its a Dud. But the next will come!


By the way, all morning the Real Solar Wind Data sheet from Noaa said "Ace+DSCVR" with DSCVRS line flatlining i believe. now it switched back to only ace yet again. Is Dscvr in a safehold? Why is Noaa not saying anything? Usually in their forecast they write something like "as measured by ACE&DSCOVR" 🤔 

Also, Magnetometer in Kiruna is sending back Data but it says "suspended" ? 

Is the solar wind and DST data reliable still? 

Check the magnetometer and real time solar wind on NOAA or on Space weather live 

[Tillson]

Is there any chance left that what we had so far was not the X1?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

7 minuten geleden, Tillson zei:

Is there any chance left that what we had so far was not the X1?

Nope, there wasn’t any other CME.

[Space pro]

1 hour ago, Tillson said:

Is there any chance left that what we had so far was not the X1?

No chance left that CME was only X1. We can say so because the CME went south of the Earth and Space weather.com wrote on 29th of October that the CME was moving towards south of the Earth.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

28 minuten geleden, Space pro zei:

No chance left that CME was only X1. We can say so because the CME went south of the Earth and Space weather.com wrote on 29th of October that the CME was moving towards south of the Earth.

Don’t say “only” X1. The strength of a solar flare isn’t any indication for a strength of a geomagnetic storm. Much depend on the duration of the event and it’s location on the solar disk. In 1991 a filament eruption (which in x-rays isn’t much) caused a severe Kp8 storm, and I also know of a simple C8 long duration flare that caused a Kp7. It’s not all about the strength of a solar flare but more about the characteristics of the events associated with it. Stronger flares have a higher potential of an associated CME but don’t forget that even “minor looking” events can cause severe storms.

Although the cloud went more south of Earth, it was very very late. Even if it was a direct hit, it was still too late. And storms being late is always less strength.