Perhaps we do have a year+ till max…

Who knows!

What is this large, slowly developing bright blob in the northeast of LASCO coronagraph?  It's slightly farsided now, but the source should be visible soon.  It is drawn into the current SWPC synoptic map.  Is it flux? plasma? filament? solar wind?

https://ibb.co/xXhDtxk

 

 

1 hour ago, Drax Spacex said:

What is this large, slowly developing bright blob in the northeast of LASCO coronagraph?  It's slightly farsided now, but the source should be visible soon.  It is drawn into the current SWPC synoptic map.  Is it flux? plasma? filament? solar wind?

https://ibb.co/xXhDtxk

It looks like a few small CMEs launched from the northwest region that came into view. Then there looks to be a larger filament eruption in progress over the limb not in coronagraph imagery yet.

.....

Actually it looks like a filament was disturbed, so that is actually another region over the limb.

Edited February 20, 20232 yr by Jesterface23

9 hours ago, Sam Warfel said:

I find it odd that these ARs are such a relatively high latitude, with the solar cycle reasonably well advanced now I would have thought we’d see more lower latitude spots 

I think this might just be an optical illusion based on the fact that we see Sol's axial tilt head-on in early March (which we're only ~2 weeks away from) and early September (not related to the equinoctes, as this would essentially be the solstices of Sol if it and Earth were to exchange roles as luminary and luminee); this means that what appears to be the equator of the visible disc at the null meridian is actually ~7 degrees south, and due to this and the depth distortion of the flat projection many regions in the northern hemisphere will seem to be at more extreme latitudes than they really are with respect to Sol's actual equator. If you look at e.g. SolarSoft, you can see how the actual equator bends upward due to this effect:

In reality 3229 isn't that far north, it's situated at ~25 degrees north (with most recent flares located to 24N), which sounds reasonable to me for the current part of the cycle, given how the spots start around ~55 degrees (as Scott likes to remind everyone). 3226 recently flared as close to the equator as 07N, and most notable regions seem to be somewhere around 10-25 degrees from the equator.

Edited February 21, 20232 yr by Philalethes Bythos

I was wondering is this might be true  as well. tnx PB! 

11 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

I think this might just be an optical illusion based on the fact that we see Sol's axial tilt head on in early March (which we're only ~2 weeks away from) and early September (not related to the equinoctes, as this would essentially be the solstices of Sol if it and Earth were to exchange roles as luminary and luminee); this means that what appears to be the equator of the visible disc at the null meridian is actually ~7 degrees south, and due to this and the depth distortion of the flat projection many regions in the northern hemisphere will seem to be at more extreme latitudes than they really are with respect to Sol's actual equator. If you look at e.g. SolarSoft, you can see how the actual equator bends upward due to this effect:

In reality 3229 isn't that far north, it's situated at ~25 degrees north (with most recent flares located to 24N), which sounds reasonable to me for the current part of the cycle, given how the spots start around ~55 degrees (as Scott likes to remind everyone). 3226 recently flared as close to the equator as 07N, and most notable regions seem to be somewhere around 10-25 degrees from the equator.

 

Edited February 21, 20232 yr by hamateur 1953

SE incoming. Hopefully more active regions, let’s get that 10.7 back up to 200 plus ifya please! 

Beautiful big eruption on the farside. I wonder what region it might be. Very exciting 😍

With launch speed estimates of 3000km/s, that CME could have had the potential for G5 storms if it had been Earth-directed, I’m sad it’s not. 
Still a good sign for the strength of SC25 though!

Maybe 25-40 hours of travel time to 1AU, so it's getting close

S1 storm from a backside CME wow. I think the last time this happened was on July 23, 2012. This is the most powerful CME so far this solar cycle.

I can see some (probably) strong regions

A bit early by my estimation but ya could be correct!   Naturally am expecting our super duper cme source to show itself!! 

Edited March 16, 20232 yr by hamateur 1953

The entire limb of hope is looking loopy.  

Edited March 16, 20232 yr by hamateur 1953
direction didn’t matter. Entire incoming lookin great

Fingers crossed!

20 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

A bit early by my estimation but ya could be correct!   Naturally am expecting our super duper cme source to show itself!! 

 

If God would! :))

On 3/15/2023 at 10:04 PM, IlikeAuroras said:

I can see some (probably) strong regions

The lower region seems to be coming over the limb now:

If the upper region is what was 3234 last rotation, it should become visible tomorrow at some point.

19 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

The lower region seems to be coming over the limb now:

If the upper region is what was 3234 last rotation, it should become visible tomorrow at some point.

It looks like the southern spot is in same zone as AR3230 from last rotation (C10). On last rotation it was fairly quiet, with a maximum flare of C8.6. Given that it survived transition of farside let's hope it can do better this time !

There is region 3256, but still looks to be something more over the limb

Edit:

Oops, posted this in the wrong thread. A moderator may feel free to delete this post, as I can't do so.

Edited March 18, 20232 yr by Philalethes Bythos
wrong thread

Something pretty large just erupted from a benign looking region on the south east.  Looks like a pretty decent filament eruption. Anyone know if there’s  anything more to this?

6 minutes ago, NEAurora said:

Something pretty large just erupted from a benign looking region on the south east.  Looks like a pretty decent filament eruption. Anyone know if there’s  anything more to this?

Not that impressive looking, it mostly all fell back onto the surface.

Also does not appear to be connected to any incoming regions.

Got an X class from it tho. (I missed it lol)

8 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Got an X class from it tho. (I missed it lol)

?

The X-flare was on the opposite side near the western limb.

10 hours ago, mozy said:

Not that impressive looking, it mostly all fell back onto the surface.

Also does not appear to be connected to any incoming regions.

Hey there, I’m a little confused. The NOAA forecast claims that a CME did come from a prominence eruption in the southeast and that it could potentially be earth directed

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Also Keith Strong is claiming a huge CME came from the prominence. Granted, his takes are mixed to say the least but just wanted to hear your thoughts

 

6 hours ago, Tormentius said:

Hey there, I’m a little confused. The NOAA forecast claims that a CME did come from a prominence eruption in the southeast and that it could potentially be earth directed

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Also Keith Strong is claiming a huge CME came from the prominence. Granted, his takes are mixed to say the least but just wanted to hear your thoughts

 

While the filament itself was big, only a part of it snapped and the eruption wasn't that impressive, a lot of the plasma fell back. It could have been huge though if it really let loose.

Also I unfollowed Keith on Twitter few months ago, not a fan of his wording for everything, extreme exaggeration most of the time.

Edited March 30, 20232 yr by mozy