Coming sunspots

[Archmonoth]

19 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

A long time ago there was a smart astronomer... Clearly he was lost in time...

Sunspots are created from a combination from gravitational tides and radio signals. This has been known for a long time, but wasn't investigated enough. Here is an article with basic calculations about the electrostatic effects from planets on the Sun: http://rspa.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/85/579/309.full.pdf

The paper describes correlative probability, not causation. Arthur Schuster speculates that the correlative connection will be useful to future scientists. 

 

19 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

Don't understand what you mean

From my to be republished paper.

Clearly not many did read it...

In 2008 NASA sent this headline into the world, “Magnetic Portals Connect Earth to the Sun.”

 

I am very happy to acknowledge this.  The Earth has a magnetic field, Ceres does not, nor does Chiron, for example.

 

19 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

2.0 Planetary alignment theory

 ·         The Sun sends charged particles within the solar wind, this ‘loads’ the planets ‘up’. We include Pluto as a planet because the calculations show a huge effect from Pluto on the Sun.

Perhaps if you describe this effect with some data/math, rather than quotes?

 

19 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

·         The portals that connect the Earth with the Sun are overwhelming proof of this principle.

 

Proof of a principle doesn't mean proof of a theory. 

 

For example, when looking at what astronomy considers a conjunction, much like Arthur Schuster: Conjunction (astronomy) - Wikipedia

Seems like there are conjunctions nearly all the time, especially with Mercury and Venus. 

 

I found there has been many notable conjunctions based on an Earth observer. The 2020 conjunctions would have some affect on flares or sunspots right? Well I am not seeing any increased activity from the 3 months Saturn and Jupiter were in conjunction... according to the archives here on Space Weather Archive | SpaceWeatherLive.com (February, March, April)

 

Am I missing something? Wouldn't the known astronomy conjunctions of early 2020 reflect sunspot/flare activity? 

 

Why not include additional known information like magnetic topology of the Sun, or internal Sun dynamics? 

 

Just because the Earth has a magnetic portal or connection with the Sun, doesn't mean things in an orientation to Earth.. also affects the Sun. Seems like you are reasoning through vague association...

 

EDIT: Here are some articles debunking/casting great doubt on planetary effects on sunspots. The first link is a modeling which are able to reproduce sunspot activity without planetary consideration. (fig 4 is pretty sweet) 

The other is a critical analysis of the tidal forces on the Sun:

 

Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions (nih.gov)  

 

 

 

And

[1401.3547] Critical Analysis of a Hypothesis of the Planetary Tidal Influence on Solar Activity (arxiv.org)

 

 

Edited September 12, 2021 by Archmonoth

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

This article proofs my theory that the solar cycle is induced by the magnetic fields close to the solar surface. Checkmate for Brian and almost all astronomers…
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1712.01247.pdf

This one explains other parts of my theory with the barycentre. Long read, but gives explanation for the reversal of the polar fields, which is extremely important in any sunspot theory:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1712.01247.pdf

Both articles are proof that my theory is the right sunspot theory. 12 basic functions can be calculated with it.

 A New Mathematical (and Physical) Principle to Combine Gravitation with Rotating Oscillating Magnetic Fields. A unifying algorithm that solves the Sun's differential rotation problem


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem

 

 

 

[Brian Halls]

21 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Whilst you are correct to say that disturbance of the ionosphere by solar activity is well known, the article specifically claimed that an association had been identified with planetary alignments. this section is particularly interesting in respect of Patrick's claims;

Mike - I read the article like you did. Patrick in an earlier post claimed that sunspots were caused by radio signals. The article does not back that up at all. The article merely points to a possible correlation in wireoless signals with planetary alignments. Totally different.

Patrick has made claims recently other than that of the original posting -viz. that he can predict sunspots by planetary alignments. We now have moved onto planetary alignments being responsible for the solar cycle. I am sure he will prove beyond doubt that there is a clear correlation. He has already said in a previous posting "...Checkmate for Brian and almost all astronomers…"

I am in awe of his scientific methods and in wonder that so many people like myself have got it so, so wrong while Patrick had it right all along, just like he did in 2012.....oh, hang on...wait a minute....

Edited September 12, 2021 by Brian Halls

[3gMike]

18 hours ago, Brian Halls said:

Patrick has made claims recently other than that of the original posting -viz. that he can predict sunspots by planetary alignments. We now have moved onto planetary alignments being responsible for the solar cycle. I am sure he will prove beyond doubt that there is a clear correlation. He has already said in a previous posting "...Checkmate for Brian and almost all astronomers…"

Brian, I agree that Patrick's claims seem to be slightly fluid.

I certainly do not support his claims that sunspots are induced by any kind of GSM radio signal (apparently arising from planetary alignments), but it does seem reasonable to allow that gravitational effects could work with the Sun's internal processes to make sunspots more or less likely.

Whilst I cannot claim to have conducted extensive research, I have not found any article which explains why the cycles occur with an 11/ 22 year period, or why the cycle strength varies, so if Patrick has identified some correlation with planetary alignments it seems to be worth pursuing.

[Brian Halls]

53 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Whilst I cannot claim to have conducted extensive research, I have not found any article which explains why the cycles occur with an 11/ 22 year period, or why the cycle strength varies, so if Patrick has identified some correlation with planetary alignments it seems to be worth pursuing.

Mike - the causes of the cyclic periodicity of sunspot behaviour - the 11 year rise and fall and the 22 year magnetic cycle - does remain a mystery, however the logical cause for this behaviour lies in the heart of the Sun - the so-called "solar dynamo" which admittedly astronomers know so little about.

So yes, I agree with you wholeheartedly, it is good to look at possible other causes or contributors to what we observe as long as it is done rationally.

Much of the work on planetary causes of the solar cycle which many have looked into over the years is quite  interesting  however most of these have fallen flat due to one thing and that is the "11 year sunspot cycle" is only an average; historically sunspot cycles have been as low as 8 years and as long as 15 years if using the relative sunspot number as a guide and reference; the last couple of cycles have been in the range of 10 years. All this is a completely different thing to what Patrick was originally claiming when he began, that is, the ability to predict the appearance of sunspots due to major and minor planet alignments.

And one other thing that we all tend to overlook. Sunspots are just one manifestation of solar behaviour.

Edited September 13, 2021 by Brian Halls

[Archmonoth]

On 9/12/2021 at 1:01 AM, Patrick Geryl said:

This article proofs my theory that the solar cycle is induced by the magnetic fields close to the solar surface. Checkmate for Brian and almost all astronomers…
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1712.01247.pdf

You are implying causation from correlation. The barycenter is not caused by magnetic disturbance, the barycenter/solar cycles of 11/22 years causes magnetic disturbance. From the collusion section of the article:

 

"The thin stable magnetic equilibrium seems to be covering the solar surface just below the photosphere from 15 degrees, or less, to about 60 degrees latitude. The magnetic field lines should be parallel to the solar surface and rotate with distance from the surface and to rotate 2π radians in ∼ 2 Mm. This is expected for the sustained configuration that has the minimum magnetic energy for the helicity content, in accordance to the well-established minimum energy principle of plasma self-organization."

 

This is saying (in my opinion) the conservation of the angular momentum causes the 2mm area around the sun to change when the barycenter is perturbed. Also 2-Pie is 1-Tau, or 1 turn, and the 2000 and 1989 high sunspot numbers show the Sun's location at the edges of the 2.2 radius of the Sun's barycenter. This turbulence similar to a swing reaching its crest and then swinging back. This effect is described in the Laminar-turbulent transition: Laminar–turbulent transition - Wikipedia

While the barycenter is caused by the planet's mass, their alignment does not cause the sunspots, since the planetary movements tend to have a spherical effect, rather than a line-up effect. 

 

Perhaps the Sunspots are like storms, and they are magnetic disturbances signifies the conservation of momentum of the Sun traveling around its barycenter? 

 

On 9/12/2021 at 1:01 AM, Patrick Geryl said:

This one explains other parts of my theory with the barycentre. Long read, but gives explanation for the reversal of the polar fields, which is extremely important in any sunspot theory:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1712.01247.pdf

Both articles are proof that my theory is the right sunspot theory. 12 basic functions can be calculated with it.

 

Both articles are the SAME article....

Movement in barycenter perturbs the Sun's surface, which means some time in 2025, it will be in a similar location in it's barycenter to 2000. Perhaps the perturbation will cause another flush of sunspots. I am suggesting is the angular momentum of the Sun's barycenter being conversed through the magnetic storms/sunspots on its surface (the 2mm surface location the articles refers to)

Planetary alignments do not cause the barycenter, their mass does, and radiates spherical, not linearly. No need for line-ups, since the planet's masses and effects are always present, as seen in this simulation: 

 

Microsoft Word - solarsystem_barycenter.doc (wmich.edu)

 

On 9/12/2021 at 1:01 AM, Patrick Geryl said:

 A New Mathematical (and Physical) Principle to Combine Gravitation with Rotating Oscillating Magnetic Fields. A unifying algorithm that solves the Sun's differential rotation problem


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem

 

 

I like your inclusion of rotations and oscillations, I always have. There is no need for planetary alignments, instead, try looking at the location of the Sun's position within it's 2.2 radius barycenter, and the conservation of its rotations. 

 

I don't know if this makes sense, but I'm always willing to try another approach at questioning and understanding. 

Edited September 17, 2021 by Archmonoth

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

7 uren geleden, Archmonoth zei:

I don't know if this makes sense, but I'm always willing to try another approach at questioning and understanding. 

Look, I explained it a zillion times. My theory is a complete checkmate for every astronomer that looks somewhere else:

1. There are 2 parts of the theory. The first is the polar field theory that explains at least 12 basic functions of the sunspot cycle:

Results of the Algorithm

The algorithm presented in A New Mathematical (and Physical) Principle to Combine Gravitation with Rotating Oscillating Magnetic Fields can be used to calculate several key factors of the Sun. We list 9:

1)      The change in polarity of sunspots at the beginning of an eleven year cycle. Calculations show that the change in polarity of the sunspots occurs after a polar rotational period of about 37.32 days for the static approach.

2)     The polar flips of the Sun occur near the height of the cycle.

3)     Very low sunspot activity when one sunspot cycle changes in another one.

4)     The wave pattern of the interplanetary polar fields reverses simultaneously with the polarity of sunspots.

5)     The equator-ward drift as seen in the butterfly diagram.

6)     An 11 year sunspot cycle, while shorter and longer cycles can also be calculated.

7)     The 22 year cycle.

The differences in magnetic intensity in (and between) the northern and southern field.

9)     The differences in length of the sunspot cycle in (and between) the northern and southern field.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem

 

2. This is the result:

Figure 5 illustrates the mean of the opposite calculations and without.

 
Figure 5  We make the mean of the northern and southern fields opposite calculations and without.  Thereafter, we substract 64 from the values (blue) and compare with the mean sunspot number (red). May 1976 – January 2020.
*Remark: The data from 2001-2003 (=cycle 23) are considered “bad” due to measurement failures. Source: WSO; WDC-SILSO.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348686960_Polar_Field_Strength_107_cm_Solar_Radio_Flux

3.  Upload coming...

But there is a lot more… The combined theory uses the effects of differential rotation in order to calculate the Sun’s poloidal magnetic field strength. With it you can calculate at least (!) 12 basic functions of the sunspot cycle. They are related to - but independent from the formation of sunspots.

[Archmonoth]

15 minutes ago, Patrick Geryl said:

Look, I explained it a zillion times. My theory is a complete checkmate for every astronomer that looks somewhere else:

Checkmate for what? 

If it is complete, why are your predictions inaccurate?

Your previous (most recent) predictions called 4 sunspots "noise" or "flipping", and neither was true. The effects of planets on the Sun's barycenter is based on their mass, and is constant, no need for line-ups. 

 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 31/8/2021 om 07:52, Patrick Geryl zei:

Repost of my conclusion...

Conclusion:

The Triple August 19 (21:15) – 29 (08:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Neptune – Pallas - Mercury

Ends on August 29.

No big new alignments coming.

Downgrade sunspot 2860 depending from flaring, otherwise from late August 29

 

Correctly predicted sunspot 2860 as the biggest alignment for this month. Follow the next days... Downgrade in complexity...

Result:

Sunspot 2860 On August 28, 23:45

 

Sunspot 2860 on August 29, 23:45

Region 12860 [S27W24] decayed with only a small magnetic delta structure remaining on the northern edge of an intermediate penumbra. Minor M class flares are still possible.

 

We checked all the alignments from this formula for the remainder of September 2021. Our conclusion was that there wil not be big activity on the Farside and that the sunspot still will be active when it turns up again on this side. Stay tuned!

See earlier post from 3gMike and see my response on August 17. 

As predicted old sunspot 2860 is back...

Sunspot 2871 (rotated into view September 19) = old sunspot 2860 August 24, 2021/ Southern Hemisphere

August 23 - 24

August 23 (18:00) – 25 (02:00), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Uranus across the Sun

August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Neptune

August 24 (04:45) – 26 (11:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Pallas

August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Neptune

August 24 (21:30) – 26 (08:30), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Ceres across the Sun

[Archmonoth]

You predicted the equivalent of an ocean wave washing up on the beach in the same place.

 

Without complete knowledge of the far side, how can you say the Sunspot is the same? There isn't a yes/no, true/false, its yes/no/unknown, and admitting the unknown is the first step in refining your accuracy. 

 

How is it the same Sunspot as 2860? I admit the region is active. How do you determine it is the same Sunspot?  

 

Edit: Besides time correlation, how is the same Sunspot identity determined?

Edited September 20, 2021 by Archmonoth
Removed incorrect information and questions after 3gMike's observation.

[3gMike]

5 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

How do you account for the difference in the Sunspot travel? Why would it take more days to cross the southern hemisphere on the far side?

If you do a more accurate calculation it seems reasonable to claim this as the return of sunspot 2860.

For a start it is on the same latitude as the previous rotation.

Then, using accurate calculations of longitude, we find that it was first recorded at 41degrees East on 25th August 00:00

It was last recorded at 77 degrees West on 3rd September 00:00 So it travelled 118 degrees in 9 days, or 13.11 degrees / day. In order to return to the original longitude it would have to travel another 242 degrees, which would take 18.46 days.

On 20th September 00:00 the new sunspot 2871 was located at 61 degrees East, so will complete the rotation during the  the 21st September.  Entirely consistent with the calculation above.

BTW: The image you used for 4th September was spot 2867

[Archmonoth]

25 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

On 20th September 00:00 the new sunspot 2871 was located at 61 degrees East, so will complete the rotation during the  the 21st September.  Entirely consistent with the calculation above.

BTW: The image you used for 4th September was spot 2867

Thanks 3gMike. I will remove the incorrect pic from my post. 

The time is consistent, but how does someone determine if its the same Sunspot? 

Edited September 20, 2021 by Archmonoth

[Jesterface23]

The easiest way to track an area on the Sun is using the Carrington rotation coordinates, and it is the same area. Telling if the region faded and something new came up there is something different.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

We couldn't find a new strong alignment for September... So ...Sunspot 2871 will be the dominant sunspot for September as it was for August.

We can track the performance of 2871 till the end of September...

New finding: It could show huge Farside activity (we are probably again extremely lucky)

What do you see happening in the next days with 2871? It will be proof our method works perfectly!

beta-gamma-delta on September 22, 23:45

September 24

September 15 (04:45)- October 15 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn – Pallas – Ceres

September 15 (16:00)- November 13 (02:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Neptune - Jupiter – Vesta

September 21 (14:15) – 24 (01:45), 2021: Conjunction Venus - Pluto and the Sun

September 21 (16:15) – 25 (03:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Venus - Earth – Uranus

September 22 (04:15) – October 19 (18:45), 2021: Conjunction Neptune - Pallas and the Sun

September 23 (18:00) – 24 (21:15), 2021: Conjunction Mercury - Saturn and the Sun

September 24 (06:00)- October 11 (19:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Chiron – Pallas – Vesta

 

September 25

September 15 (04:45)- October 15 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn – Pallas – Ceres

September 15 (16:00)- November 13 (02:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Neptune - Jupiter – Vesta

September 21 (16:15) – 25 (03:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Venus - Earth – Uranus

September 22 (04:15) – October 19 (18:45), 2021: Conjunction Neptune - Pallas and the Sun

September 24 (06:00)- October 11 (19:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Chiron – Pallas – Vesta

 

September 26

September 15 (04:45)- October 15 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn – Pallas – Ceres

September 15 (16:00)- November 13 (02:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Neptune - Jupiter – Vesta

September 22 (04:15) – October 19 (18:45), 2021: Conjunction Neptune - Pallas and the Sun

September 24 (06:00)- October 11 (19:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Chiron – Pallas – Vesta

 

September 27

September 15 (04:45)- October 15 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn – Pallas – Ceres

September 15 (16:00)- November 13 (02:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Neptune - Jupiter – Vesta

September 22 (04:15) – October 19 (18:45), 2021: Conjunction Neptune - Pallas and the Sun

September 24 (06:00)- October 11 (19:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Chiron – Pallas – Vesta

September 27 (08:00) – October 2 (16:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mars - Venus - Neptune

 

September 28

September 15 (04:45)- October 15 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn – Pallas – Ceres

September 15 (16:00)- November 13 (02:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Neptune - Jupiter – Vesta

September 22 (04:15) – October 19 (18:45), 2021: Conjunction Neptune - Pallas and the Sun

September 24 (06:00)- October 11 (19:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Chiron – Pallas – Vesta

September 27 (08:00) – October 2 (16:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mars - Venus - Neptune

September 28 (16:15) – October 4 (09:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mars - Earth – Chiron

 

September 29

September 15 (04:45)- October 15 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn – Pallas – Ceres

September 15 (16:00)- November 13 (02:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Neptune - Jupiter – Vesta

September 22 (04:15) – October 19 (18:45), 2021: Conjunction Neptune - Pallas and the Sun

September 24 (06:00)- October 11 (19:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Chiron – Pallas – Vesta

September 27 (08:00) – October 2 (16:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mars - Venus - Neptune

September 28 (16:15) – October 4 (09:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mars - Earth – Chiron

September 29 (02:00) – 30 (01:15), 2021: Conjunction Mercury - Jupiter and the Sun

September 29 (06:00) – October 8 (20:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Neptune – Pallas - Mercury

 

September 30

September 15 (04:45)- October 15 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn – Pallas – Ceres

September 15 (16:00)- November 13 (02:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Neptune - Jupiter – Vesta

September 22 (04:15) – October 19 (18:45), 2021: Conjunction Neptune - Pallas and the Sun

September 24 (06:00)- October 11 (19:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Chiron – Pallas – Vesta

September 27 (08:00) – October 2 (16:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mars - Venus - Neptune

September 28 (16:15) – October 4 (09:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mars - Earth – Chiron

September 29 (02:00) – 30 (01:15), 2021: Conjunction Mercury - Jupiter and the Sun

September 29 (06:00) – October 8 (20:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Neptune – Pallas - Mercury

[3gMike]

3 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

What do you see happening in the next days with 2871? It will be proof our method works perfectly!

Patrick, I find it interesting that AR2871 (2860) initially returned as an Alpha region and has developed now into a Beta-Gamma-Delta. Would you place any significance on the fact that the current M flare occurred within a few degrees of the location of the August 28th M flare - Aug 28th Carrington longitude 1, vs Sep 23rd Carrington longitude 355?

What leads you to believe that it could produce "huge farside activity"?

[Archmonoth]

2 hours ago, 3gMike said:

 I find it interesting that AR2871 (2860) initially returned as an Alpha region and has developed now into a Beta-Gamma-Delta. 

 

I have a speculation about this. The Sun is moving along it's barycenter, and conserving its momentum in the southeast region due to the direction it is travelling. The area has increased pressure from be squished up against this edge, then as the Sunspots rotate away from the Southeast corner, they stabilize, reducing in size. This would explain the flares without Sunspots earlier this month, and the growth of 2871. 

 

Current location of the Sun in 2021 in the southwest corner, and activity would increase until 2023, then decrease until 2025  as it returns closer to the inner radius. At every change in angle, the momentum would put pressure on a specific side of the Sun.

 

Again this is just speculation for an area having activity, with the assumption that Sunspots, flares and such are releasing energy to conserve momentum.  (In additional to internal and surface dynamics)

 

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

 

I have a speculation about this. The Sun is moving along it's barycenter, and conserving its momentum in the southeast region due to the direction it is travelling. The area has increased pressure from be squished up against this edge, then as the Sunspots rotate away from the Southeast corner, they stabilize, reducing in size. This would explain the flares without Sunspots earlier this month, and the growth of 2871. 

 

Current location of the Sun in 2021 in the southwest corner, and activity would increase until 2023, then decrease until 2025  as it returns closer to the inner radius. At every change in angle, the momentum would put pressure on a specific side of the Sun.

 

Again this is just speculation for an area having activity, with the assumption that Sunspots, flares and such are releasing energy to conserve momentum.  (In additional to internal and surface dynamics)

 

Please accept a few thoughts on this. I am still learning, so am happy to accept that I may be misinterpreting some aspects.

My understanding is that the barycenter is simply the centre of mass of the whole solar system, i.e. it is not the barycenter of the Sun. Of course I recognise that the Sun represents 99.8% of the mass of the whole solar system, so the barycenter will always be close to the Sun. Given the current location of the barycenter the surface of the Sun will experience gravitational attraction toward the barycenter, from all of the planets, so plasma in the convection zone will tend to be drawn towards the surface according to location of all the planets. This tends to favour enhancement on the earth facing side.

I am not sure about how you are using the terms south east / south west, since I understand the image to represent a view from above the solar pole.

If you go to https://www.theplanetstoday.com/ and enter a date for 2029 you will note that Saturn and Uranus are in opposition across the Sun with Jupiter. It seems to me that is consistent with the barycenter at that time being close to the centre of the Sun. Presumably at that time the surface will tend to respond mainly to the 'tidal' influence of Mercury and Venus, and that might lead to a more widespread range of locations for sunspot generation. This leads to a further assumption that sunspot enhancement might predominantly arise on the far side during the period 2034 to 2040 when the barycenter is located on that side.

[Archmonoth]

5 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Please accept a few thoughts on this. I am still learning, so am happy to accept that I may be misinterpreting some aspects.

No worries, my speculation is incomplete, just trying to add something to the conversation which seems missed. 

5 hours ago, 3gMike said:

My understanding is that the barycenter is simply the centre of mass of the whole solar system, i.e. it is not the barycenter of the Sun.

The Sun itself travels in an area 2.2 radius from its center. My previous post has the location for each year.  The planet Jupiter, for example has a pretty big effect on this movement, and vice versa. For example, Jupiter rotates around a point just outside the surface of the Sun, which is only true for Jupiter, and not other planets/moons/asteroids. As the Sun moves around, its mass moves with it, and distorts, accelerates, and pushes the planets around. Planets have a mean velocity, rather than a fixed velocity, since their momentum is constantly being conserved. 

 

My criticism of Patrick's ideas, are that the planets have a radial effect on the Sun, rather than a line-up. Conservation of momentum does not depend on line-ups. 

 

5 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Of course I recognise that the Sun represents 99.8% of the mass of the whole solar system, so the barycenter will always be close to the Sun. Given the current location of the barycenter the surface of the Sun will experience gravitational attraction toward the barycenter, from all of the planets, so plasma in the convection zone will tend to be drawn towards the surface according to location of all the planets. This tends to favour enhancement on the earth facing side.

The pull from the planets is radial, not based on lines drawn. Here is a brief thought experiment to demonstrate this:

 

If you and another person hold hands, and spin around each other, you will feel the centrifugal force pulling each other apart. There is no line-up required, and the force is constant. 

 

With the Sun, its direction is changing as it moves around its barycenter (my previous post diagram) so the momentum of the spinning people has to change. If one person is heavier, and walking around, the other person has to spin faster to compensate for the change in the center. This is also demonstrated with inner turns on race car tracks, where the outside lane has further to travel than the inside lane. 

 

These are just some quick examples. I think the solar system race track is a bit more complicated, but the momentum of the Sun needs to be conserved somewhere. So my guess is through flares and Sunspots, or CMEs when sections of the Sun are squished, and other parts are stretched while going around the turns of the barycenter. 

 

5 hours ago, 3gMike said:

I am not sure about how you are using the terms south east / south west, since I understand the image to represent a view from above the solar pole.

I was thinking about the Sunspot disc, not the barycenter diagram. 

bottom left= southwest

bottom right=southeast 

I could have used a better description, my apologies. 

 

5 hours ago, 3gMike said:

If you go to https://www.theplanetstoday.com/ and enter a date for 2029 you will note that Saturn and Uranus are in opposition across the Sun with Jupiter. It seems to me that is consistent with the barycenter at that time being close to the centre of the Sun. Presumably at that time the surface will tend to respond mainly to the 'tidal' influence of Mercury and Venus, and that might lead to a more widespread range of locations for sunspot generation.

Tidal influences seems unlikely for the Sun, since its mass is so large compared to the planets, and their masses are inversely reduced by distance. Their influence on the wobble/barycenter of the Sun is constant. There are models for Sunspots without the planets which already exist, and they are able to predict activity without tidal influences or alignments. There seems to be no need to include them if Sunspots can be predicted without their existence. 

5 hours ago, 3gMike said:

This leads to a further assumption that sunspot enhancement might predominantly arise on the far side during the period 2034 to 2040 when the barycenter is located on that side.

The location of barycenter doesn't seem as relevant to my speculation or Sunspots as the momentum changes. In the thought experiment of 2 people swinging around each other while holding hands, it wouldn't matter if the barycenter was on one side or the other, but rather the direction the heavier person is walking. Maybe you are correct and 2034-2040 will have increased activity as the Sun runs its race track  Perhaps 2030 will be highly active too, as the Sun gets squished coming around that tight curve. 

 

 

I'm not sure if this makes sense, but I am happy to clarify. Thanks for the conversation about this speculation. 

Edited September 24, 2021 by Archmonoth

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

17 uren geleden, 3gMike zei:

Patrick, I find it interesting that AR2871 (2860) initially returned as an Alpha region and has developed now into a Beta-Gamma-Delta. Would you place any significance on the fact that the current M flare occurred within a few degrees of the location of the August 28th M flare - Aug 28th Carrington longitude 1, vs Sep 23rd Carrington longitude 355?

What leads you to believe that it could produce "huge farside activity"?

Mike,

1. I am still trying to find when sunspots flare

2. I asked what AR2871 would do... Nobody tried to answer. It is simple!

Mercury is the driving force! Do you see Mercury on September 25-28?

NOPE....  

Conclusion:

AR2871 will loose beta-gamma-delta!

What leads you to believe that it could produce "huge farside activity"?

=> I gave you the link to calculate the planetary alignments! At least you can give it a try.... 

Mind: Mercury....

September 24

September 15 (04:45)- October 15 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn – Pallas – Ceres

September 15 (16:00)- November 13 (02:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Neptune - Jupiter – Vesta

September 21 (14:15) – 24 (01:45), 2021: Conjunction Venus - Pluto and the Sun

September 21 (16:15) – 25 (03:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Venus - Earth – Uranus

September 22 (04:15) – October 19 (18:45), 2021: Conjunction Neptune - Pallas and the Sun

September 23 (18:00) – 24 (21:15), 2021: Conjunction Mercury - Saturn and the Sun

September 24 (06:00)- October 11 (19:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Chiron – Pallas – Vesta

 

September 25

September 15 (04:45)- October 15 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn – Pallas – Ceres

September 15 (16:00)- November 13 (02:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Neptune - Jupiter – Vesta

September 21 (16:15) – 25 (03:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Venus - Earth – Uranus

September 22 (04:15) – October 19 (18:45), 2021: Conjunction Neptune - Pallas and the Sun

September 24 (06:00)- October 11 (19:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Chiron – Pallas – Vesta

 

September 26

September 15 (04:45)- October 15 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn – Pallas – Ceres

September 15 (16:00)- November 13 (02:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Neptune - Jupiter – Vesta

September 22 (04:15) – October 19 (18:45), 2021: Conjunction Neptune - Pallas and the Sun

September 24 (06:00)- October 11 (19:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Chiron – Pallas – Vesta

 

September 27

September 15 (04:45)- October 15 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn – Pallas – Ceres

September 15 (16:00)- November 13 (02:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Neptune - Jupiter – Vesta

September 22 (04:15) – October 19 (18:45), 2021: Conjunction Neptune - Pallas and the Sun

September 24 (06:00)- October 11 (19:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Chiron – Pallas – Vesta

September 27 (08:00) – October 2 (16:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mars - Venus - Neptune

 

September 28

....

[Archmonoth]

20 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

Mike,

1. I am still trying to find when sunspots flare

2. I asked what AR2871 would do... Nobody tried to answer. It is simple!

 

There is another thread where someone predicted it would M flare with the when/where, and the M-flare happened... twice.  Check out the thread: 

 

20 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

Mercury is the driving force! Do you see Mercury on September 25-28?

NOPE....  

Are you being sarcastic to 3gMike, or contradicting yourself?

How did you come to the conclusion Mercury is the "driving force"? Do you mean Mercury is the cause of the Sunspots? 

 

20 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

Conclusion:

AR2871 will loose beta-gamma-delta!

Extra conclusion: AR2871 will disappear!  

 

Edited September 25, 2021 by Archmonoth

[3gMike]

On 9/6/2021 at 8:06 AM, Patrick Geryl said:

The current activity is quite high for these alignments. I guess the southern polar field is close to 'flipping'. I will know in 4 weeks...

It looks like you may be correct. The southern coronal hole has disappeared. Checking the records it looks like the hole initially formed around end of June 2014 so, given an expected lifetime of around 8 years, it might indicate a slightly early transition.

[abc]

20 hours ago, 3gMike said:

It looks like you may be correct. The southern coronal hole has disappeared. Checking the records it looks like the hole initially formed around end of June 2014 so, given an expected lifetime of around 8 years, it might indicate a slightly early transition.

What is the significance of the flipping?

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 25/9/2021 om 21:43, 3gMike zei:

It looks like you may be correct. The southern coronal hole has disappeared. Checking the records it looks like the hole initially formed around end of June 2014 so, given an expected lifetime of around 8 years, it might indicate a slightly early transition.

If the southern field goes to zero and reverses polarity we are at the height of the southern field. This could last several years. We are not there yet. You can check the polar field here:

WSO Polar Field Observations - 1976-Present

http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html

we found several new mathematical-physics principles that explain this phenomenon.

Mind: they are easy to understand! Basic math!
 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348686960_Polar_Field_Strength_107_cm_Solar_Radio_Flux?_sg=q8HvNy5AbC-R1yCofP54__r6eyiprNWc0k-eLp2KVaP_Vm1bFwb_QbsTfRPiY2LkgHzVdI6nL6qLPmmKgUEL63tCtl4k7x-V_ZNEHI6p.gZGWE-gupttKuihJV4-ul2_Q3zP7hlNcQzpAOCTHOrrx0GgPuLGvMM93VJ8NGJZzR61QmUj05cbonUjxKHNUcw

(2) (PDF) 2 Solutions for the Axial Dipole Field: In Phase and in Anti-Phase


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333445984_2_Solutions_for_the_Axial_Dipole_Field_In_Phase_and_in_Anti-Phase?_sg=aViO4FiaL_mrzoQPxjNWc4xQKmrXFw4gunaaxj0PZVOm_SZ3isPGLrO7qnqaQntD9J_GQudvwT3S8ZdsFsGNezylwwqz__N90EqHFLqD.BmeDTzSl-luA6tyWv_vIfKZpIkugZA6igv5llu4_IbC1ltLB81w1-QNw9aV-3MlOwb1CUxkM8HhZ1LiURvvWpg

 

Edited September 27, 2021 by Patrick Geryl

[3gMike]

13 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

If the southern field goes to zero and reverses polarity we are at the height of the southern field. This could last several years. We are not there yet.

You previously said on 6th September "The current activity is quite high for these alignments. I guess the southern polar field is close to 'flipping'. I will know in 4 weeks..."

In answer to Archmonoth on September you said ".Flipping does mean change of polarity."

Now you appear to be saying that it will not happen for several years? I happen to agree with that, because it normally happens around solar maximum. So what did you mean by your earlier statement? 

In my post referring to the disappearance of the southern polar coronal hole I was indicating that this might indeed be a precursor to the reversal process.

Some interesting related data can be found here https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2018/10/aa32981-18/aa32981-18.html

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

9 uren geleden, 3gMike zei:

You previously said on 6th September "The current activity is quite high for these alignments. I guess the southern polar field is close to 'flipping'. I will know in 4 weeks..."

In answer to Archmonoth on September you said ".Flipping does mean change of polarity."

Now you appear to be saying that it will not happen for several years? I happen to agree with that, because it normally happens around solar maximum. So what did you mean by your earlier statement? 

 

I expressed myself not so good. On the other hand you should have looked better at the polar field data. You see the northern field flipping in January 2011... But! It flips back, etcetera during several years! The final flip is... Well, it is easy to find...

Hint: Give a look at the polar field data and reread my paper. There is another recent paper that I read about the polar flip that is far better than the one you mentioned. The data are far closer to my theory... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/353117042_Asymmetric_Distribution_of_the_Solar_Photospheric_Magnetic_Field_Values

 

Edited September 28, 2021 by Patrick Geryl