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Coming sunspots


Patrick P.A. Geryl

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Hi Patrick,

Thanks for the updated predictions.

It is going to be extremely difficult to verify your theory, since if a spot is generated on the rear side then it may not appear until 13 or 14 days later. Spot 2830 first appeared on the front side at S26W60 on Jun 6th but your data does not indicate any Triple Line that would have generated a sunspot at that time.

Spotless plage 2831 has been recorded today at N24W0. Would you claim that as a link to one of the Triple Line ups?

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Sunspot activity will increase again in a few days because we have alignments with Mercury and Venus

August 3 (03:00) – 10 (23:45), 2021 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Ceres – Venus

August 8 (08:45) – 11 (16:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Venus - Earth – Neptune

August 8 (14:30) – 14 (19:15), 2021 Triple Line Up   Vesta – Mercury - Ceres

August 10 (01:30) – 12 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Jupiter - Earth – Mercury

August 10 (18:15) –  13 (17:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Venus - Earth – Pallas

August 10 (19:30) – 14 (02:30), 2021 Triple Line Up   Mars – Mercury - Pallas

August 15 (04:45) – 21 (23:30), 2021 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Ceres – Mercury

August 18 (04:30) – 20 (03:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Mars – Mercury - Earth

August 18 (14:15) – 20 (23:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Mercury – Venus – Juno

August 19 (21:15) – 29 (08:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Neptune – Pallas - Mercury

August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Neptune

August 24 (04:45) – 26 (11:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Pallas

August 24 (21:30) – 28 (05:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Chiron - Earth – Venus

 

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10 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

Sunspot activity will increase again in a few days because we have alignments with Mercury and Venus

Patrick,

Please help us understand your theory. You have listed here 13 triple line-ups during August. I assume that not all line-ups will influence sun spot generation in the same way. Can you give a rating (using whatever scale suits you) for each line-up based on the probability of it leading to a sunspot region being generated? Until you do that we have no way of assessing the validity of your claims.

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9 uren geleden, 3gMike zei:

Patrick,

Please help us understand your theory. You have listed here 13 triple line-ups during August. I assume that not all line-ups will influence sun spot generation in the same way. Can you give a rating (using whatever scale suits you) for each line-up based on the probability of it leading to a sunspot region being generated? Until you do that we have no way of assessing the validity of your claims.

This is the basics.

1. No Triples with Mercury or Venus = low sunspot activity

2. LONG Triples with Mercury or Venus = high sunspot activity

Remember the proton flares on the Farside in July?

Induced by a LONG Triple (22 days) with Mercury:

June 20 (23:00) – July 12 (00:30), 2021 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Ceres – Mercury

 

June 22 (08:45) – 25 (14:30), 2021 Triple Line Up   Pluto – Earth – Venus

June 24 (08:45) - 27 (15:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Mars – Mercury - Jupiter

 

This one was important because it was a long one with Ceres (also in the long Triple with Mercury)

June 24 (15:45) – July 29 (00:45), 2021 Triple Line Up    Pluto – Jupiter - Ceres

 

June 25 (18:00) – 27 (08:15), 2021 Triple Line Up   Venus – Mercury - Jupiter

June 25 (18:30) – July 1 (11:15), 2021 Triple Line Up   Mars – Venus - Jupiter

June 26 (08:15) – 27 (19:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Mars – Venus - Mercury

June 28 (08:45) – July 3 (09:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Chiron – Mercury - Vesta

July 2 (22:30) – 4 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Venus – Mercury - Pallas

July 5 (12:45)- 8 (16:15), 2021 Triple Line Up  Saturn – Earth –Venus

July 7 (02:15) – 8 (15:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Venus – Mercury - Neptune

July 8 (00:30) – 10 (17:15), 2021 Triple Line Up   Mars – Mercury - Pallas

July 12 (02:45)- 15 (01:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Mars – Venus - Earth

July 13 (06:00)- 18 (21:45), 2021 Triple Line Up   Ceres – Venus - Vesta

July 14 (00:15) – 15 (10:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Venus – Mercury - Chiron

There were other Triples that are important, but that would take pages to explain.

Conclusion:

Higher sunspot activity in August, but not spectacular

 

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3 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

Conclusion:

Higher sunspot activity in August, but not spectacular

Thanks for the explanation. So, if I understand you correctly, activity most likely higher in the period 19th to 29th based on the long line up with Neptune-Pallas - Mercury, and reinforced by

August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Neptune

August 24 (04:45) – 26 (11:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Pallas

August 24 (21:30) – 28 (05:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Chiron - Earth – Venus

in the latter part of that period.

Does inclusion of both Mercury and Venus from the 24th make the effect stronger?

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Patrick - there can be no doubt you have put a lot of hard work into your theories - though sadly I remain sceptical of your predictions.

Am I to understand (and I apologise if I have missed something previously) that your predictions are based upon the effect of alignments of other solar system bodies on the Sun? What is the effect - mass or gravity of these bodies?

Despite my sceptisicsm I find your posts fascinating.

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On 8/6/2021 at 1:55 AM, Patrick Geryl said:

Sunspot activity will increase again in a few days because we have alignments with Mercury and Venus

August 3 (03:00) – 10 (23:45), 2021 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Ceres – Venus

August 8 (08:45) – 11 (16:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Venus - Earth – Neptune

August 8 (14:30) – 14 (19:15), 2021 Triple Line Up   Vesta – Mercury - Ceres

August 10 (01:30) – 12 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Jupiter - Earth – Mercury

August 10 (18:15) –  13 (17:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Venus - Earth – Pallas

August 10 (19:30) – 14 (02:30), 2021 Triple Line Up   Mars – Mercury - Pallas

August 15 (04:45) – 21 (23:30), 2021 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Ceres – Mercury

August 18 (04:30) – 20 (03:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Mars – Mercury - Earth

August 18 (14:15) – 20 (23:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Mercury – Venus – Juno

August 19 (21:15) – 29 (08:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Neptune – Pallas - Mercury

August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Neptune

August 24 (04:45) – 26 (11:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Pallas

August 24 (21:30) – 28 (05:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Chiron - Earth – Venus

 

 

 

We are at the 1/2 way through these dates. I haven't seen "increased sunspot activity" yet. 

 

Again your predictions are vague, how many sunspots? How many sunspots were you predicting? Are you off by 40%, 30%? 

 

Only 1/2 more dates to go. I am happy to acknowledge your predictions, but I'm not sure exactly what your predictions are. 

 

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Op 7/8/2021 om 10:36, 3gMike zei:

Thanks for the explanation. So, if I understand you correctly, activity most likely higher in the period 19th to 29th based on the long line up with Neptune-Pallas - Mercury, and reinforced by

August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Neptune

August 24 (04:45) – 26 (11:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Pallas

August 24 (21:30) – 28 (05:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Chiron - Earth – Venus

in the latter part of that period.

Does inclusion of both Mercury and Venus from the 24th make the effect stronger?

You nailed it! That is the period with the highest activity. The others can learn something from you… Currently sunspots are small because no long alignments with Mercury or Venus.

Hope it will be on this side of the Sun!

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8 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

You nailed it! That is the period with the highest activity. The others can learn something from you… Currently sunspots are small because no long alignments with Mercury or Venus.

Hope it will be on this side of the Sun!

 

Well lets see what happens during the 19th-29th.

 

If there is nothing or low activity, would you revisit your Merc/Venus alignment prediction? 

 

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9 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

You nailed it! That is the period with the highest activity. The others can learn something from you… Currently sunspots are small because no long alignments with Mercury or Venus.

Hope it will be on this side of the Sun!

O.K., so I am perhaps beginning to understand a little bit more about your theory, but I still have plenty of questions !

For example, you have acknowledged elsewhere that sunspot generation is dependent upon the 10.7cm flux. Are you able to give us an indication of the degree of influence exerted by the planetary alignments on this flux?

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1 hour ago, 3gMike said:

sunspot generation is dependent upon the 10.7cm flux.

The causation is actually reverse. ARs cause radio emissions and the 10.7 cm band (2800 MHz) correlates reasonably well with solar activity. That's why it was chosen in first place, during a time where EUV/X-ray observations were not yet possible (1940s). 

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Do you remember the large sunspot that I CORRECTLY predicted?

Well... LONG ALIGNMENTS WITH MERCURY AND VENUS OFF COURSE...

In case you can't find them... I put them in red....

November 1 (12:30) – 11 (07:15), 2020 Triple Line Up   Venus – Mercury - Ceres

November 1 (18:45)- 7 (06:15), 2020 Triple Line Up    Vesta – Venus - Pallas

November 3 (01:45)- 12 (05:15), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Mercury

November 8 (03:00) - 11 (05:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Mars – Earth - Venus

November 12 (02:15)- 20 (14:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Vesta – Venus - Jupiter

November 14 (02:00) – 17 (16:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Vesta – Mercury - Pallas

November 14 (04:00)- 20 (04:45), 2020 Triple Line Up   Mercury – Ceres – Neptune

November 15 (14:00)- 23 (20:15), 2020 Triple Line Up   Venus – Ceres – Neptune

November 15  (22:15) - 18 (16:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Earth - Mercury

November 17 (22:00)- December 29 (17:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Vesta – Venus - Saturn

November 22 (18:00)- 26 (05:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Uranus - Mars – Mercury

November 23 (18:15) – December 10 (22:45), 2020 Triple Line Up   Vesta – Mercury - Jupiter

November 26 (01:45) – 28 (08:15), 2020 Triple Line Up   Juno – Mercury - Earth

November 26  (03:30) - 29 (06:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Earth - Venus

December 3 (06:15)- 7 (14:30), 2020 Triple Line Up    Uranus – Mars – Venus

December 4 (00:30) – 6 (20:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Juno – Mercury - Mars

December 13 (04:45)- 15 (23:30), 2020 Triple Line Up    Juno – Venus - Earth

December 17 (14:15) – 19 (20:45), 2020 Triple Line Up   Venus – Mercury - Neptune

December 23 (19:00) – 28 (02:45), 2020 Triple Line Up   Vesta – Mercury - Pallas

December 24 (01:30)- 27 (14:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Juno – Venus - Mars

December 26 (01:00)- 28 (00:30), 2020 Triple Line Up    Venus – Mercury – Ceres

December 27 (05:30)- 29 (03:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Venus – Mercury – Chiron

December 28 (20:00)- January 7 (04:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Chiron – Ceres – Venus

 

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12 hours ago, helios said:

The causation is actually reverse. ARs cause radio emissions and the 10.7 cm band (2800 MHz) correlates reasonably well with solar activity. That's why it was chosen in first place, during a time where EUV/X-ray observations were not yet possible (1940s). 

The 10.7cm flux represents more than just sunspots. It is actually an indicator of solar activity within the corona / chromosphere. The flux is generated over the whole disk - not just in visually active regions. Therefore a higher flux indicates a greater likelihood of sunspots arising. So my question to Patrick still stands.

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1 hour ago, 3gMike said:

The 10.7cm flux represents more than just sunspots.

Of course, otherwise the flux would be zero without sunspots.

Luckily, these days we have radio telescopes like the VLA with reasonable angular resolution, so we know exactly where those emissions are coming from and how they are produced:
https://www.haystack.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/conf_RadioStars2012_slides_White_web.pdf

F10.7 does not allow a prediction of solar activity. Only a measurement of solar activity.

 

Edited by helios
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2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

One correct prediction doesn't mean all. I can't deny your research, but posting each of your selected dates without clarification isn't the way to go. Something for the future onward. Go back to look at your August 6th post.

 

To date, Patrick has refused advice regarding a finer resolution of their predictions. We will see by August 29th :)

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By now, we are stuck on repeat. Patrick's table of alignments itself, as well as his published research, are perfectly competent and plausible in consideration of things. Some of you have taken to debating his assertion of the unpublished leaps of logic - all well-intention and so far productive as far as discourse goes - but I'm beginning to see the same things being said by roughly the same people to the same recipient. In short, I'd like if we could shift the dialogue back to something resembling constructive criticism or brainstorming.

I don't know the value of advice in Patrick's eyes, but his approach could use some slight adjustments. Nothing that aims to alter his work or his principals, worry not:

State openly that this research is ongoing alongside your predictions and posts where you share notes, tables, etc.. This does the following:

  1. Grants you benefit of the doubt inherently
  2. Re-focuses the tone of discourse
  3. Persuades or intrigues others to maybe lend a hand(as you may have solicited before) in the studies

In terms of your desk-type workflow, I would only recommend that you take a look at total mass and/or individual magnetic field strength, in addition to distance from the Sun, of relevant celestial bodies within alignments/conjunctions to help determine a "scale of magnitude" so to speak of the mechanisms you firmly assert are at play. Moreover, and this is a whisper in the wind... keep note of Mercury's and Venus's position relative to any meaningful alignments/conjunctions. Perhaps those are interfering(with the Sun's magnetic field) in some way 😉 

Edited by Christopher S.
Wording adjustments
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8 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

In short, I'd like if we could shift the dialogue back to something resembling constructive criticism or brainstorming.

How about that.
Stellar-planetary magnetic interaction was studied and some evidence has been found in exoplanetary systems for close-in planets in extreme cases.
https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201219002 
There is also research ongoing at the AIP Stellar Physics and Exoplanets. Here is a presentation in german (auto-translated subtitles available):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLHLobUifeY

However, in our solar system the interactions are by far too weak. (too big distances, too weak external magnetic fields). In comparison to exoplanetary systems, it would be rather trivial to find a linkage in our own solar system.

Throwing out possible dates of possible sunspots during a phase of the cycle where <25% spotless days are expected, is just pointless.

Edited by helios
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On 8/21/2021 at 1:43 AM, helios said:

How about that.
Stellar-planetary magnetic interaction was studied and some evidence has been found in exoplanetary systems for close-in planets in extreme cases.
https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201219002 
There is also research ongoing at the AIP Stellar Physics and Exoplanets. Here is a presentation in german (auto-translated subtitles available):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLHLobUifeY

However, in our solar system the interactions are by far too weak. (too big distances, too weak external magnetic fields). In comparison to exoplanetary systems, it would be rather trivial to find a linkage in our own solar system.

Throwing out possible dates of possible sunspots during a phase of the cycle where <25% spotless days are expected, is just pointless.

I have no doubt that a very rough, ridden-with-subjectivity system for determining in some relative quantity to another quantity the magnitude of the specific types of interactions could pave the way for a more concrete, hypothetical(until measurable) correlation that can be assigned a number, much like Tornadoes, Flares, Earthquakes etc. to determine the potential for sunspot amplification. That is, after all, the only value I see in Geryl's research(as it relates to sunspot prediction) as of now. That is the basis for his predictions - banking on a chance at a sunspot being amplified by the alignment of complex magnetic fields/structures.

I'd rather just know if a sunspot has extra batteries stowed away somewhere, rather than guess when they'll appear and at what strength. It's like, looking at sea surface temperatures and guessing based on that alone at the probability of hurricane/cyclone/typhoon formation.

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On 8/18/2021 at 8:02 AM, Patrick Geryl said:

Do you remember the large sunspot that I CORRECTLY predicted?

Well... LONG ALIGNMENTS WITH MERCURY AND VENUS OFF COURSE...

In case you can't find them... I put them in red....

Patrick,

In an effort to improve understanding of your theory I have generated a visual representation of the alignments which you identified for November 2020. I hope that it helps to see overlaps and to understand possible reinforcement from multiple alignments. I have shown the three alignments that you identified in red - also red on this plot. Those you left in black are generally shown as yellow, except for the first line , which I showed in orange. I marked this orange because it includes both Mercury and Venus, so I would have expected it to have more of an effect, but perhaps you have some additional data that led you to omit it from the red list?

You will see that I have included values for Sunspot Number and 10.7cm flux for each day, and below that I have included the data for each Active Region within the period.

When you refer to "the large sunspot that I correctly predicted" I assume that you refer to AR 2786, but there is clearly a significant growth in the number of active regions in the period 18th to 30th November, and a stepwise build up in the days 22nd to 24th.

If I can find a bit more time I will follow the progression into December 2020

Planetary Alignments vs Sunspots.jpg

Edited by 3gMike
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Clarification:

1. You need a relevant sunspot formula, meaning with Mercury or Venus in the formula.

2. You need long alignments with Mercury or Venus to 'GROW' this sunspot. THIS WILL ALSO GROW THE OTHER SUNSPOTS OR KEEP THEM LONGER ALIVE.

3. I don't know where the sunspots will be formed. If on the Farside, no amplification in the Flux to be seen on this side! Read that again...

4. If there are several sunspots, a sunspot can stop growing while another one starts growing. Depends from the formula. Quite complicated interactions. You need to know all the formulas from the sunspots on the Sun and try to figure out how this works!

5. There is currently only one sunspot that is relevant. But where on the Farside?

August 21 (12:45)

August 11 (22:45) – 21 (04:15), 2021: Opposition Mars - Neptune  across the Sun?

August 18 (07:15) – September 1 (22:15), 2021 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Ceres – Vesta

August 19 (21:15) – 29 (08:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Neptune – Pallas - Mercury

August 15 (04:45) – 21 (23:30), 2021 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Ceres – Mercury

August 21 (12:45) – 22 (16:00), 2021: Conjunction Mercury - Vesta and the Sun

6. Today or tomorrow we have a fast growing sunspot:

 

August 23 (19:00)

August 23 (18:00) – 25 (02:00), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Uranus across the Sun

August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Neptune

 

August 24 (21:30) – 28 (05:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Chiron - Earth – Venus

Unused

 

August 24 (21:30)

August 23 (18:00) – 25 (02:00), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Uranus across the Sun

August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Neptune

August 24 (04:45) – 26 (11:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Pallas

August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Neptune

August 24 (21:30) – 26 (08:30), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Ceres across the Sun

7. These are all the alignments active tomorrow:

August 24, 2021

August 3 (05:15)- September 3 (07:00), 2021 Triple Line Up   Saturn - Jupiter – Ceres

August 8 (06:30) – September 3 (17:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Pluto – Pallas - Ceres

August 17 (17:00) – September 4 (19:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Neptune – Pallas - Earth

August 18 (07:15) – September 1 (22:15), 2021 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Ceres – Vesta

August 19 (21:15) – 29 (08:30), 2021 Triple Line Up    Neptune – Pallas - Mercury

August 23 (18:00) – 25 (02:00), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Uranus across the Sun

August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Neptune

August 24 (04:45) – 26 (11:00), 2021 Triple Line Up    Mercury - Earth – Pallas

August 24 (21:30) – 28 (05:15), 2021 Triple Line Up    Chiron - Earth – Venus

August 24 (21:30) – 26 (08:30), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Ceres across the Sun

 Remark:

We see strong alignments with the Earth. Neptune, Pallas and Mercury are already in long alignments.

Normal conclusion: Fast growing sunspot. But these are very strong alignments with the Earth... Makes me wonder if something else could be expected...

 

Edited by Patrick Geryl
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13 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

It's like, looking at sea surface temperatures and guessing based on that alone at the probability of hurricane/cyclone/typhoon formation.

It's more like rolling dice. Sea surface temperature is actually correlated with severe weather. But planetary alignment has not found to be correlated with solar activity. There is no evidence for that as of today, despite decades of comprehensive data being available for everyone to look back to.
Before making predictions concerning the future, one could easily validate their theory on data from the past.

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